EUR/USD Rally Continues – 1.18000 in SightHi Everyone,
As outlined in our analysis last week, we anticipated a continued move higher toward the 1.16564 and 1.18325 levels, provided price held above 1.14483.
Price respected this level, and EUR/USD extended its rally, reaching our first key target at 1.16564 and pushing above 1.17400 — marking the highest level since February 2022.
A successful bounce from above 1.16680 or slightly lower at 1.15998 would offer near-term support for a potential retest of the 1.17400 zone. A confirmed break above this resistance could pave the way for a move toward 1.18000, where we anticipate encountering dynamic resistance.
We will provide further updates on the projected path for EUR/USD should price reach this level.
The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to extend toward the 1.2000 level, provided the price holds above the key support at 1.10649.
We will continue to update you throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas and positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we appreciate the support!
All the best for a good end to the week. Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
EURUSD_SPT trade ideas
BSL (Buy-side Liquidity):Symbol: EUR/USD
Timeframe: 1 hour
Price Range Displayed: ~1.15300 to ~1.17500
Current Price: 1.16935
🔍
Key Chart Markings
BSL (Buy-side Liquidity):
Marked at the top in the yellow zone (~1.17250–1.17500).
Indicates where buy-side liquidity was likely taken—suggesting liquidity grab or stop hunt.
SSL (Sell-side Liquidity):
Marked at the bottom yellow zone (~1.15700–1.15900).
Indicates a potential drawdown area—price may seek this liquidity next.
Price Action:
The price recently made a higher high into the BSL zone, followed by a bearish rejection.
A projected path is shown: short-term retracement upward, followed by a larger move downward toward the SSL zone.
📉
Potential Outlook (Bearish Bias)
The chart suggests a bearish move is anticipated:
BSL has been swept, signaling a reversal point.
Target: Sell-side liquidity around 1.15800, possibly lower.
⚙️
Technical Implication
This setup follows Smart Money Concepts (SMC) or Liquidity Engineering:
Liquidity is taken from one side of the market (BSL), and price is expected to move to the other (SSL).
Possible setup for a short trade after confirmation of the retracement.
EUR/USD Biases (Long, Short, and Today’s View)EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones
This will be a concise market analysis essay (around 600–700 words) suitable for a financial audience, such as forex traders or analysts. Let me begin:
EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones
The EUR/USD pair, one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, has exhibited strong bullish momentum in recent sessions. As of June 26, 2025, the euro’s ascent against the dollar has brought it to a critical juncture, testing significant technical and psychological resistance levels. Traders are now weighing the potential for continued upside against growing signals of exhaustion and looming fundamental catalysts.
Bullish Outlook: A Technically Supported Advance
From a technical perspective, the bullish case for EUR/USD remains compelling. The pair is entrenched in a sustained uptrend, marked by successive breakouts above prior resistance levels and validated by daily and weekly closes above 1.1600. The current price action is converging on a crucial supply zone located between 1.1700 and 1.1900—an area historically known for triggering reversals but also pivotal in confirming trend continuation if broken convincingly.
Technical indicators further bolster the bullish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while approaching overbought territory, is still supportive of higher prices. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a widening bullish histogram, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms trend strength. Near-term resistance lies between 1.1680 and 1.1730, with potential for an extension to 1.1800 should the pair breach this upper band.
On the fundamental front, improved German Ifo business sentiment data has injected optimism into the eurozone outlook. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-on sentiment in global markets have undercut the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Speculation over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts further dampens dollar strength, creating tailwinds for EUR/USD.
Bearish Considerations: Resistance and Reversal Risks
Despite the encouraging trend, caution is warranted. The area between 1.1700 and 1.1900 represents a major weekly order block (OB) resistance—territory where several past rallies have lost steam. Oscillators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and RSI are showing signs of overextension, and the market is now vigilant for reversal patterns or signs of exhaustion.
Fundamentally, while the recent Ifo data is encouraging, it remains below the key threshold of 100, reflecting lingering skepticism about the eurozone's full recovery. Moreover, upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly GDP figures and jobless claims, could act as potential catalysts for a dollar rebound. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials could also tilt sentiment, especially if it dampens expectations of rate cuts.
If EUR/USD fails to hold above the 1.1700–1.1730 resistance zone, a corrective move toward 1.1530–1.1500 becomes plausible. Deeper pullbacks could extend toward 1.1470 and 1.1390, especially if risk sentiment reverses or economic data surprises in favor of the dollar.
Today’s View: Bullish with a Note of Caution
For today, June 26, the prevailing bias remains bullish, yet increasingly cautious. The pair is testing the lower end of the 1.1700 OB zone. A decisive break and hold above this level would likely unleash further upside toward 1.1730 and 1.1800. However, overbought conditions and proximity to a known resistance zone suggest that traders should remain alert to potential rejection.
Intraday strategies favor buying on dips above 1.1600–1.1635, with stops placed just below 1.1600 and targets set at 1.1700–1.1730. Conversely, short positions should only be considered if there is a clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1730 area, with downside targets at 1.1530–1.1500 and stops above 1.1800.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD is currently at a pivotal inflection point. While the bullish trend is intact and supported by both technical and fundamental factors, the proximity to a major resistance zone introduces a layer of complexity. Traders must remain agile—ready to ride a breakout higher if confirmed, but equally prepared to pivot if the pair falters and signals a reversal. In markets like these, timing and confirmation are everything.
EURUSD SHORT TIME O LOSS TIMEI opened a long position on the EURUSD pair at 1.17195 with 10 lots.
Target: 1.174 – If the target is reached, I will take profit and open a short position.
At the same time, expecting USD weakness, I also opened a short position at 1.17200 with 20 lots.
1.168 to 1.166 is a strong support zone.
If price reaches 1.174 and I have an active short, I will close the 1.17200 short and keep the other one.
Targets and support levels are marked on the chart – I plan to close the positions gradually.
I will close 75% of the position at the 1.149 support level.
This is a demo account – I’m practicing in order to qualify for a funded trading account.
Depending on my success rate, I plan to start trading live on Forex.
EURUSD POSSIBLE FINAL STAGE FOR BULL AND BEAR TAKING OVERIn this 15m chart we have MAJOR WEEKLY/DAILY RESISTANCE SUPPORT area around 1.1653
I wait to see if we close below that and get out of this UP-WARD CHANEL
If all this mate i will take sell below 1.1642 and Main target will be 1.113 but as usual will close some along the way
I will update once im in
Thanks
EUR/USD | Bullish SMC SETUP EUR/USD | 15min | Bullish SMC Setup 🚀💶
Price swept Asian session lows into a higher timeframe demand zone, followed by a strong bullish BOS (Break of Structure). We’re now anticipating a pullback into the FVG (Fair Value Gap) + LQC (liquidated candle) and demand zone for potential continuation to the upside.
The entry idea is based on:
🔹 Liquidity Grab (sell-side sweep)
🔹 BOS confirmation
🔹 FVG + Demand confluence
🔹 Expecting bullish continuation toward previous high and premium zone.
Waiting for price to tap the zone before riding the wave up! 📈
You can wait for confirmation on 5min TF after tap into POI
Let’s see if it delivers.
#SMC #EURUSD #Liquidity #SmartMoney #FXTradingClub #OrderFlow #Sam_trades_smc
EURUSD Sell- Go for sell
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how
- keep looking for sell even if price goes one more up
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EURUSD – Short-Term Top Signal, Sellers Getting ReadyEURUSD has reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.17190 and immediately faced selling pressure. This zone previously acted as a strong reversal area, and with a rejection candlestick and a forming FVG, the risk of a downward correction is increasing.
Currently, the price is moving sideways just below the high, forming lower highs — suggesting a possible distribution pattern before breaking the bullish structure. If price breaks below the FVG zone near 1.165–1.166, the move could extend toward the technical target at 1.15900 — aligning with the channel bottom and a historical liquidity area.
Recent fundamental drivers:
U.S. economic data remains strong (Jobless Claims, Core PCE) → supports USD strength
The ECB remains cautious and hasn’t committed to further rate hikes → slightly weakens the euro
EUR/USD Breaking above Major ResistanceI had posted a short for the EUR/USD a week or 2 ago but I canceled it due to concerns about a major breakdown on the DXY. Well sure enough, my concerns were valid as the DXY continues to break lower, sending the EUR/USD above this weekly trendline going back 5 years. This is huge, if it closes above by the end of the week, the EUR/USD will have broken resistance and will be going much higher.
EURUSD: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.17021 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD Will Move Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 15h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.173.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.144 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EURUSD Sell SetupBy: MJTrading:
EUR/USD has rallied into a significant resistance zone, approaching the upper boundary of a rising wedge/channel pattern. The price is now hovering around a key confluence zone, where trendline resistance and horizontal supply intersect ( 1.16300 —1.16500 )
There are to possible scenarios:
1) If the price Rejects directly from previous High
🔹 Position 1: Sell Stop @ 1.15915
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.6375
🎯 Take Profit: 1.5454
R/R:1
isk Level: Medium
2) If price tries to reach the boundary of the wedge or make a Fake breakout:
🔹🔹 Position 2: Sell Limit @ 1.16300
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.6930
🎯 Take Profit: 1.5000
R/R:2
Risk Level: Low
📌 This zone offers a high-probability reversal setup
📉 Why it Matters:
Price action shows signs of exhaustion after a parabolic move.
EMA structure is stretched, hinting at a potential pullback.
Lets ZOOM OUT:
Daily Chart:
ZOOM IN:
Stay disciplined, let price come to you, and manage risk.
—
#EURUSD #ForexSetup #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPattern #FXTrading #ShortTrade #MJTrading #BearishReversal #PriceAction #SwingTrade #ForexIdeas #Trendlines #BreakoutOrFakeout #RiskReward
Euro's Surge on USD Weakness – Is 1.20 the Next Stop?EURUSD: Euro's Surge on USD Weakness – Is 1.20 the Next Stop?
Hello TradingView Community!
The EURUSD pair is currently commanding significant attention with its strong upward momentum.
🌍 Fundamental Highlights: Euro's Tailwinds & USD's Headwinds
The Euro has demonstrated notable strength, recently breaching the 1.17 mark to hit its highest level in over 3.5 years. According to ING, if this momentum holds, the next target could be 1.20, contingent on continued USD weakness.
The US Dollar faces considerable pressure following news that President Trump intends to name a successor to Fed Chair Powell soon, sparking concerns about the Fed's independence. Such speculation often leads to expectations of a more 'dovish' monetary policy, weakening the USD.
Adding to the Euro's support are the NATO agreement to increase defense spending targets to 5% and President Trump's seemingly "less aggressive" stance towards the EU.
In summary: Should USD depreciation persist, not only the Euro but other asset classes might also attract capital inflows, particularly given the ongoing uncertainties surrounding inflation risks and monetary policy.
📊 EURUSD Technical Outlook (H4/M30 Chart):
Our technical analysis of the EURUSD chart (image_b73298.png) confirms a clear and robust uptrend, characterized by successive higher highs and higher lows. The EMAs are in a bullish alignment, reinforcing this upward trajectory.
Upside Targets (Potential BUY Zones):
1.17807: The initial potential target if the bullish momentum continues.
1.18458: A higher target representing the next potential resistance zone.
Key Support Levels (Potential BUY Zones for pullbacks):
1.16070: A strong support level where demand could emerge after a correction.
An implied intermediate support around 1.166xx (visually suggested by price action between current levels and 1.16070) could also offer buying opportunities after minor pullbacks.
🎯 EURUSD Trading Plan:
BUY Zone 1 (Intermediate Pullback):
Entry: 1.16600 - 1.16700
SL: 1.16450
TP: 1.16800 - 1.17000 - 1.17200 - 1.17500 - 1.17807 - 1.18000 - 1.18300 - 1.18458
BUY Zone 2 (Strong Support):
Entry: 1.16070
SL: 1.15900
TP: 1.16200 - 1.16400 - 1.16600 - 1.16800 - 1.17000 - 1.17300 - 1.17600 - 1.17807 - 1.18458
SELL Zone (Consider only at upside targets with clear reversal signals):
Entry: 1.18458 (This is an upside target, but also a potential resistance for selling if strong reversal signals appear).
SL: 1.18600
TP: 1.18300 - 1.18000 - 1.17807 - 1.17500 - 1.17200 - 1.17000 - 1.16800
⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor:
Fed Leadership News: Any official announcements regarding the Fed Chair succession will trigger significant USD volatility.
Eurozone Economic Data: Upcoming inflation, GDP, and employment reports.
ECB Statements: The European Central Bank's stance on monetary policy.
Geopolitical Developments: Major tensions or agreements can influence market sentiment.
Trade smart and always manage your risk effectively! Wishing everyone a profitable trading day!
Overextended Rally into Resistance ZoneEUR/USD has pushed into the upper boundary of the Keltner Channel on the 4H timeframe, indicating a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. Price is showing signs of overextension with Heikin Ashi candles losing strength near a key resistance zone.
📉 Short Position Setup:
Entry: 1.17220 (near upper Keltner resistance)
SL: 1.17581 (above recent highs and volatility buffer)
TP: 1.15220 (targeting mid-channel and previous structure support)
🔻 Bearish Confluence:
Price rejecting upper Keltner band
Potential for mean reversion after strong rally
Weakening bullish momentum in candle structure
Confirmation with further bearish price action or divergence signals would strengthen the case for downside continuation.
EUR/USD Bullish Continuation Analysis EUR/USD Bullish Continuation Analysis 🚀💶
📊 Chart Summary:
The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a strong bullish structure with consistent higher highs and higher lows. Recent price action shows a breakout above the 1.16386 resistance level, now acting as support 🛡️. The market is currently retracing and might retest this new support zone before continuing its upward move toward the target.
🔍 Key Observations:
🔸 Bullish Structure:
Multiple bullish impulses have formed a clean staircase pattern (🔼⬆️), indicating sustained buying momentum.
🔸 Support Zone 🟦 (1.13200 - 1.14000):
This zone has been tested multiple times, confirming its strength and the base of this bullish rally.
🔸 Breakout & Retest 🟠:
Price broke above the 1.16386 resistance level, pulled back slightly (highlighted by the orange circle), and now looks ready for a potential continuation to the upside.
🔸 Target 🎯: 1.18010
A clear target has been set based on measured move or resistance projection. If the price respects the current structure, we may see a continuation toward this level.
✅ Trade Outlook:
Bias: Bullish 📈
Entry Zone: Around 1.16386 (upon bullish confirmation)
Target 🎯: 1.18010
Invalidation ❌: Break below 1.1600 with bearish momentum
🧠 Technical Tip:
Always wait for confirmation on the retest before entering. Wick rejections or bullish engulfing candles at the support zone can provide additional entry confidence. 🔍✅
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 26, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair continues to rise to 1.16800 during Thursday's Asian session. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) as investors worry about the future independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Final data on US GDP growth for the first quarter will be in focus later on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he is considering three or four potential candidates to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump may consider former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Other candidates include former World Bank President David Malpass and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
This raises questions about a potential weakening of the Fed's independence and a possible decline in its authority, which undermines the dollar and creates favorable conditions for the major currency pair.
Across the Atlantic, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are concerned about the economic outlook due to Trump's tariff policy and geopolitical risks. Earlier this week, ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau said that despite current conditions, further rate cuts are still possible. Statements by ECB policymakers may put pressure on the single currency in the near term.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16750, SL 1.16300, TP 1.17500