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EUR/USD_SPT - EUR/USD

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#AN016: Markets Brace for Tariffs, Forex Reaction Markets have taken a cautious tone this week, as investors digest new developments on global trade and central bank prospects. A mix of US tariff threats, higher OPEC+ oil production and surprisingly strong eurozone investor sentiment is shaping currency flows. I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, and I want to thank our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE in advance for helping me put this article together. Investor confidence in the eurozone surged to a three-year high in July. This positive sentiment is reducing the European Central Bank's room to cut rates further, even as inflation remains subdued. Meanwhile, US President Trump has ordered letters threatening tariffs of up to 70% for nations that fail to conclude trade deals by August 1, creating fresh uncertainty in diplomatic and trade circles. Asian markets and BRICS currencies have already shown signs of weakness, while US futures have weakened on the threat. Oil markets have also reacted sharply to OPEC+’s announcement of a higher-than-expected production increase of around 550,000 barrels per day from August, which has pushed Brent below $68 and US crude below $66. On the European inflation front, the ECB is opting to postpone further rate cuts. Estonian Minister Madis Müller confirmed that the ECB can afford to put monetary easing on hold, given stable inflation and solid growth. reuters.com Forex Impact – What Traders Should Watch The combination of strong eurozone sentiment and looming trade tensions is driving significant currency dynamics this week: EUR/USD: The euro has room to strengthen further. Optimistic sentiment and a pause from the ECB reinforce the bullish bias, but tariff uncertainty could trigger safe-haven demand for USD. USD/JPY and CHF: The dollar could find support amid global risk aversion, pushing JPY and CHF higher. Commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NOK): Under double pressure: higher oil supply and rising trade risks could weigh on crude-related currencies. Emerging market currencies: BRICS currencies could remain under pressure due to threats of additional US tariffs; Indian rupee and other currencies could depreciate further.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
US Jobs Data Supports Fed Dovish SignalsThe EUR/USD stayed in a narrow range around 1.1760 during Friday’s Asian session, with limited movement as US markets were closed for Independence Day. The US dollar gained modestly after Thursday’s NFP data showed 147,000 new jobs in June, beating the expected 110,000. However, private sector job growth slowed, adding only 74,000 jobs in June versus a three-month average of 115,000. This trend supports Fed officials like Vice Chair Bowman, who recently called for rate cuts due to labor market risks. Resistance for the pair is at 1.1830, while support is at 1.1730.
by ChartMage
EUR/USD Pair Analysis📉 EUR/USD Pair Analysis – Monday, July 7, 2025 1️⃣ A clear ascending price channel on the daily chart defines the overall trend of the pair. 2️⃣ The price is currently touching the upper boundary of the channel, indicating a potential downward correction from the designated areas (in gray). 3️⃣ Strong demand areas have emerged at lower levels, which may support a subsequent upside move. 📌 Summary and Recommendation: 🔻 In the short term: An opportunity to quickly sell the pair using scalping from the current areas, targeting nearby points. 🔺 In the medium to long term: We prefer to wait for a decline to the lower boundary of the price channel, as we plan to buy from there, in line with the general uptrend.
Long
by ShakerTrading
EURUSD – Monday July 7th Outlook - 4hr chartPrice action confirms resistance at 1.17905, now tapped on both Friday and today. Current View: Bullish bias remains intact long-term Short-term: Expecting a deeper pullback Range forming between 1.17170 – 1.17905 Scenarios: Break below 1.17170 = Likely move to 1.16020 (previous swing low) Break + close above 1.17905 = Clean continuation to 1.18791 While inside range → No trade Key Buy Zones: ✅ 1.16020 rejection ✅ Break + retest above 1.17905 Patience until direction confirms.
Long
by Thetraderscollective
EURUSD Will Go Higher From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.172. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.177 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Decisive Week: Duties, Oil and Flight from the Dollar Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the week full of tensions and opportunities in global currency markets. The new tariff threats from the United States, the strategic moves of OPEC + and the growing instability in the British government bond market are shaking up the entire Forex landscape, with direct implications on USD, AUD, CAD, GBP and JPY. I thank in advance the Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in the creation of this article. The most explosive news concerns the possible imposition of new duties by the United States, with a deadline set for July 9. The American administration, according to Reuters sources, is ready to activate tariffs of up to 70% on some categories of strategic imports if new bilateral agreements are not signed by the end of the month. The market has reacted cautiously, but signs of systemic risk are starting to filter through: US futures are falling, capital is moving into safe havens, and the dollar is starting to lose ground structurally. The decline in oil has added further pressure. OPEC+ announced the start of an increase in production from August, with about 550 thousand barrels per day more than the current level. This has hit Brent and WTI hard, which are now both below $68. Currencies that are highly correlated to commodities, such as CAD and NOK, are weakening, especially in the absence of a monetary response from their respective central banks. Meanwhile, the UK is facing a delicate moment. Yields on 10-year gilts have risen to their highest since April, with a sell-off that has forced the Bank of England to review the pace of its asset disposal. The instability of the British debt is putting pressure on the pound, already tested by inflation that is struggling to recover and a stagnant housing market. The GBP/USD pair remains extremely volatile, while EUR/GBP is moving sideways waiting for a clearer direction. But the star of the week is Australia. The AUD has scored the eighth consecutive week of gains, taking advantage of both the weakness of the dollar and the expectations of a more gradual future rate cut by the RBA. The AUD/USD cross has broken the highs of November 2024 and is now targeting levels of 0.67-0.68. The same goes for NZD/USD, which is also in a phase of bullish consolidation. The US dollar, on the other hand, has recorded its worst start to the year since 1973: a combination of political uncertainty, fiscal instability and falling confidence is eroding global demand for the USD, pushing many managers to diversify into emerging or commodity-linked currencies. Finally, the Federal Reserve is taking its time. Powell stated that the path of rates will be closely linked to the evolution of trade tensions. The Fed, therefore, appears more wait-and-see than expected, postponing a possible cut to the third quarter. This leaves the dollar exposed to downward pressure, especially if inflation were to slow further in the meantime. In summary, this week offers extremely interesting scenarios for Forex traders. Institutional flows seem to favor alternative currencies to the dollar, while sentiment remains fragile on GBP and CAD. AUD, NZD and JPY emerge as potential winners, at least until new macro developments or significant technical breaks. The watchword is: selection. With volatility on the rise and the geopolitical context rapidly evolving, only those who know how to read the movements of central banks and institutions in advance will be able to take full advantage of the opportunities offered by the markets.
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by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD- SHORT to SUPPORT (but I'm a BULL longterm)EURUSD- has seen a magnificant rise and long trend for several months since January. Watching for a pullback to the 21EMA and Daily support to take this long again. - At Monthly M3 -USD strength to resistance expected this week. -Bearish candle LL after 3 touches of Resistance and a LL. - the previous inside candle occurred on Friday but we did not make a HH or a LL. -On the hourly we are bearish, having broken support and restesting.- 1.1774 & 21 EMA. - Under 1.1717 price will turn bearish on daily. -Watching the next possible support level of 1.1763 as a level that may hold. Short-term bear target - 1.1623 - Support and Dly 21 EMA restest of channel bottom to take this long with confirmation.
Short
by gillianpatrice
EURUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers, Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - President Trump stated, “A letter will be sent on Monday, and it could be 12 countries, possibly even 15.” He added, “I think we’ll finalize negotiations with most countries by July 9 — either a letter or a deal.” - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said that “President Trump will send a letter stating that if negotiations with trade partners do not make real progress, tariff levels will revert to those announced on April 2, starting August 1.” - The legislative process for the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” centered on making Trump’s tax cuts permanent, was completed on July 4. The U.S. Treasury is expected to significantly increase the issuance of Treasury securities soon. Key Economic Events This Week + July 8: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision + July 9: Release of FOMC Meeting Minutes + July 10: Germany June Consumer Price Index (CPI) + July 11: United Kingdom May GDP EURUSD Chart Analysis The pair recently broke above the 1.18000 level and appears to be approaching key resistance near the highs. There still seems to be some room for further upside. If the upward move continues, the 1.19000 level is the most likely target for the next peak. However, if the trend reverses downward, a pullback to the 1.15000 level remains a possibility.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EUR/CAD: Long. Is this a "loonie" trade?Hello traders Clarification: CAD is also referred to as the loonie, a former Canadian one dollar coin. The 50 base point cut by the BoC was expected. The CAD strengthened against the USD and CAD immediately afterwards. Classic knee jerk reaction of buy the rumor, sell the news. Both EUR/CAD and EUR/USD have found support on the 4H chart. The EURO has been on the backfoot against the USD but with the ECB rate decision in less than 24 hours, I have taken a long EUR/CAD position. The ECB is expected to cut by 25 base points which will still give the CAD a slight advantage. However, the Canadian forward guidance points to more rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending, albeit more gradually/25 points at a time. This leaves the ECB's forward guidance to cement this idea. IF Ms. Lagarde once again expresses concern about inflation moving forward, the EURO may appreciate across the board. Fundamentally the Euro Zone needs this rate cut. The economic conditions are not great at the moment. That leaves the FOMC next week and also the BOJ to provide us with more forward guidance. Once this is out of the way, we'll have a much better idea what to expect in 2025, bar some more geopolitical unrest or other major market moving event. Best of luck, all. The EUR/JPY is also some upside promise but keep in mind, the JPY marches to its own drummer. DXY is also retreating
Long
by jvrfxalerts
2
EURUSD Quadruple Top Rejection Pattern - Bearish Correction This quadruple top rejection pattern on the H1 timeframe is currently in play and it is a strong indication or confirmation that the bearish correction will likely resume next week. If you are unsure when to enter short positions for this trade setup, wait for a demand zone to break, followed by a pullback and continue to ride the bearish momentum and target the next demand zone, and the next and so on and so forth until a time when this correction ends and the uptrend continues.
Short
by Moipone_Phakisi
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, we witnessed the successful completion of the Outer Currency Rally at a level of 1.177. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is likely to encounter a downward trend, with an initial target set at the Mean Support level of 1.168 and a potential extension to an additional Mean Support of 1.160. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the possibility of a subsequent increase toward the next Outer Currency Rally level of 1.187 before any definitive downward movement transpires.
by TradeSelecter
Euro-dollar retreats from $1.18Euro-dollar’s uptrend which has lasted fairly consistently since the start of 2025 continued in June with the price reaching a fresh four-year high above $1.18 on 1 July. Less confidence in the USA as the government continues to flip-flop and contradict on tariffs has driven capital out of the dollar. Monetary policy in the eurozone might stabilise with majority expectations pointing to only one more cut by the ECB this year while CME FedWatch suggests an 80% probability of at least two cuts by the Fed before the end of 2025. Low volume and clear overbought conditions might point to a pause in the uptrend soon, but selling demand also seems to be limited as seen from the relatively long tails of recent candlesticks. The 23.6% monthly Fibonacci retracement is slightly above the top of this chart around $1.1885. The 38.2% Fibo around $1.166 is a possible area of support. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness