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EUR/USD_SPT - EUR/USD

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EURUSD_SPT trade ideas

Fundamental Market Analysis for May 23, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention today: 17:00 EET. USD- Volume of home sales on the primary market EURUSD: EUR/USD is recovering its recent losses from the previous session and is trading around 1.1310 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is rising on the back of lower US Treasury yields, which continue to decline after the US 30-year bond yield retreated from 5.15 per cent, the highest in 19 months. US President Donald Trump's ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ has passed the House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate, sparking fears of a widening budget deficit in the United States (US). However, EUR/USD lost around 0.50 per cent on Thursday as the US dollar gained as the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May came in at 52.1, up from April's 50.6. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2 previously, while the services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8. Fed Chairman Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that markets are watching fiscal policy. Waller also said that if rates are close to 10%, the economy will be in good shape for H2 and the Fed may be in a position to cut rates later this year. The Financial Times reported that President Trump is pushing the European Union (EU) to cut tariffs or impose more duties. US Trade Representative Greer is set to tell fellow EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maroš Šefčovič, that the recent ‘explanatory memorandum’ does not meet US expectations. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.13200, SL 1.13000, TP 1.14200
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Market next move Original Analysis Summary: Price has entered a support area and is expected to bounce. Two possible bullish paths (blue & yellow arrows) suggest a continuation toward the marked target zone. --- Disruption Thesis: Bearish Reversal Setup 1. Overextended Rally Into Resistance The move up into the “support area” is sharp and fast, suggesting it's a liquidity grab. This zone might actually be a supply zone, where smart money is offloading. Disruption Call: Price could stall or reverse sharply from this area due to lack of follow-through volume. --- 2. Volume Profile Weakness Volume peaked earlier in the rally and is now diminishing, which often signals buyer exhaustion. Disruption Call: Fading bullish momentum implies a fakeout, not a breakout. --- 3. False Breakout / Bull Trap The green arrow assumes a bounce, but price may just be hovering to bait longs before dropping. Previous swing highs near 1.1320 may act as a strong rejection point. Disruption Call: A sudden drop below 1.1300, with a new bearish wave back to 1.1250 or lower.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
EURUSD – Consolidation below trendline hints at breakout aheadHello traders! EURUSD is currently forming a rather interesting consolidation pattern right below the descending trendline – a level that has rejected price twice in the past. After a mild pullback from the 1.1382 zone, price has quickly recovered and is now hovering around the EMA34 and EMA89. This is an important confluence area and is acting as short-term support around 1.1263. If EURUSD continues to hold above this support and forms sideways accumulation, the probability of a trendline breakout will increase. In that case, the next target will likely be the previous high at 1.1382. U.S. bond yields are fluctuating sharply, and geopolitical tensions – such as trade uncertainty or regional instability – may serve as catalysts that support the euro. Keep an eye on the breakout zone – if price breaks out decisively, it could be a strong confirmation of a new bullish trend!
Long
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD is moving within the 1.12265 - 1.13700 range👀Possible scenario: The euro rose 0.41% against the U.S. dollar on May 21 as concerns over President Trump's fiscal plans and political infighting weakened investor confidence. A poor 20-year bond auction further pressured the dollar, signaling waning appetite for U.S. debt. Key U.S. data releases on May 22—including Jobless Claims and PMI reports—could impact EUR/USD. Weaker-than-expected figures may boost the euro, while strong results could trigger a pullback toward the 1.13000 level. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.12265. Resistance level is located at 1.13700.
by MaxOnMarkets
EURUSD Under Pressure After Weak Eurozone PMIsEurozone PMIs disappointed, and EURUSD is feeling the negative pressure as a result. After breaking above 1.1275, EURUSD is now trading within the 1.1275–1.1375 range. Despite the weak PMI, shaky U.S. bond markets and a stronger Japanese yen are contributing to a weaker dollar, which is offering some support to EURUSD. The Eurozone composite PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.4, missing expectations of a rise to 50.6. After just four months above 50, the drop back into contraction territory highlights that the Eurozone remains far from recovery. On a positive note, the manufacturing component is starting to show signs of improvement. Following the data and the news that the "big, beautiful bill" passed in the U.S. House, EURUSD is trying to hold the former resistance at 1.1275, which is now acting as support. If this level fails, the next downside target would be 1.1215. On the upside, 1.1375 and 1.1425 remain key resistance levels. While 1.1425 holds greater long-term significance, 1.1375 may cap gains for the remainder of the week.
by ftdsystem
#AN001: Geopolitical Situations and Forex Impact Hi, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about how the recent geopolitical turmoil is impacting global currency markets. In this week of May 2025, significant events are shaking up the global economic and political balance, with direct repercussions on Forex. Geopolitical Overview: Rising Tensions India-Pakistan Crisis Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, which left 25 Indian tourists dead, relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated rapidly. Artillery exchanges along the Line of Control, diplomatic expulsions and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty characterized the following weeks. Although a ceasefire was reached on May 10, the situation remains volatile, with significant impacts on air traffic and regional trade routes. Wikipedia Iran-US Nuclear Stalemate The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States are at a standstill. Tehran refuses to stop enriching uranium and negotiate on its missile program, while Washington insists on these conditions. Iran, under economic pressure from sanctions, may seek support from China and Russia, although these allies face their own geopolitical challenges. Reuters "Golden Dome" and US Trade Policies President Donald Trump has announced the "Golden Dome" project, a $175 billion missile defense system inspired by Israel's Iron Dome. Meanwhile, protectionist US trade policies are generating uncertainty in global markets, with the European Union proposing a "Buy European" strategy to strengthen the bloc's economic autonomy. The Times of India Financial Times FX Impacts: Currency Market Analysis EUR/USD: Downside Pressure The euro is under pressure due to trade tensions with the US and domestic economic uncertainties. Proposals to reform public procurement and European defense initiatives could affect investor sentiment. The ECB has highlighted risks to financial stability arising from these tensions. USD/JPY: Yen Safe Haven Amid global uncertainty, the Japanese yen is strengthening as a safe haven currency. Tensions in the Middle East and US policies are pushing investors towards safer assets, supporting the yen’s appreciation. GBP/USD: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship The UK, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is seeking to re-establish closer relations with the European Union, without rejoining the bloc. This pragmatic strategy could reduce economic uncertainty and positively impact sterling in the medium term. USD/CAD: Influence of Oil Prices The Canadian dollar is affected by fluctuations in oil prices, influenced by uncertainties in the Iran-US negotiations and tensions in Ukraine. Canada's dependence on energy exports makes the CAD sensitive to these developments.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
From a short-term perspective, the bullish trend is expected to The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its upward momentum during the European session and is currently trading near 1.1320. As the US Dollar Index remains under pressure, the EUR/USD rate has gradually climbed. Market sentiment tends to seek alternatives to the US dollar and optimistic expectations of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The euro has performed strongly recently, mainly benefiting from two factors: the market's search for US dollar alternatives and optimistic expectations that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may reach a ceasefire agreement. According to Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange analyst at ING, the overall European currencies have shown good momentum, with the Swiss franc and Swedish krona ranking among the top in the G10 currency list this week. This reflects that the market is (on one hand) seeking alternatives to the US dollar (Swiss franc), and (on the other hand) may be optimistic about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement (Swedish krona, Norwegian krona). EUR/USD may continue to test the resistance range of 1.1410-1.1460. If US political uncertainty intensifies or economic data weakens, a breakthrough cannot be ruled out. However, positive US dollar news that may emerge at the G7 summit in Canada may limit the upside of EUR/USD before the end of this week. In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Long
by Ashbur
Market next move Bearish Disruption to the EUR/USD Analysis: 1. Strong Resistance Zone (Red Box): Price is struggling to hold above the resistance area. Several candles have long upper wicks, signaling rejection and selling pressure. This may form a double-top or even a bull trap. 2. Volume Anomaly: The upward price move shows decreasing volume, which is a classic signal of weak momentum. Without increasing volume, breakouts often fail. 3. Overextended Rally: The pair has already made a sharp move up from below 1.1300 to near 1.1340. This type of parabolic move can lead to a snapback correction. If bulls cannot decisively break resistance soon, profit-taking may trigger a short-term retracement. 4. Bearish Divergence Potential: If RSI or MACD indicators are available, watch for bearish divergence (price makes higher highs while indicators make lower highs). This would reinforce downside risk. 5. Fundamental Pressure: If any upcoming U.S. economic data (like PMI, FOMC minutes, etc.) is strong, it could boost USD and push EUR/USD down from this resistance.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
EURUSD 4H CHART PATTERNThe chart you've provided is a 4-hour EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) chart with a clear technical breakout setup: Key Observations: 1. Downtrend Channel Broken: The chart previously had a descending channel (marked by black trendlines). A breakout above this channel occurred recently, indicating a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. 2. Ichimoku Cloud Breakout: Price has broken above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a bullish trend reversal. The cloud now acts as support. 3. Arrow Indicators: Green arrows indicate bullish reversal points (support/resistance flip or buying signals). Red arrows mark previous rejection or resistance levels. 4. Projected Move (Red Path): There's a zigzag arrow pointing to the 1.15500 level, implying a potential bullish target. Intermediate resistance is noted around 1.14500. 5. Price Action: Current price is 1.13319. A break above 1.13500 could confirm continuation to the next resistance zone (around 1.14500), with final target near 1.15500. Technical Summary: This chart suggests a bullish breakout with potential upside targets around: 1.14500 (first target) 1.15500 (final target) Would you like help with trade planning (entry/SL/TP), or an analysis update based on live data?
by Rich_trader01
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Long
by Thief_Trader
EURUSD | Bullish Pennant Breakout – Retest Before the Target📊 EUR/USD (1H Timeframe) The EUR/USD pair has shown a textbook example of a bullish pennant formation, which typically occurs during strong uptrends and signals a continuation of the bullish momentum. The price had an impulsive rally prior to the formation of the pennant, indicating a strong underlying bullish sentiment. Following the rally, the market entered a period of consolidation where price action began to coil between two converging trendlines – this is the pennant structure, marked by lower highs and higher lows. This tightening price action typically suggests that market participants are pausing to digest the previous move, often leading to another breakout in the same direction – in this case, bullish. 📐 Key Technical Elements Highlighted: Bullish Pennant Formation: Characterized by a sharp move up (flagpole) followed by a tight consolidation range (the pennant). Volume generally contracts during consolidation and expands on breakout, confirming momentum. Breakout and Retest: Price has broken above the upper resistance line of the pennant. Now pulling back for a retest, a healthy technical behavior often seen in strong setups. This pullback offers a second chance for entry for traders who missed the initial breakout. Support & Resistance Zones: SR Interchange Zone (previous resistance turned into potential support). Minor Resistance Zone above, now likely invalidated by breakout. These zones are critical in evaluating potential price reaction and risk control. Projected Target: Based on the measured move from the pole height of the pennant added to the breakout point, the projected target stands near 1.14315, a level of prior structural interest. 🎯 Trade Plan – Technical Strategy ⚠️ This is a hypothetical scenario for educational purposes. Always manage your risk. Entry Zone: On confirmation of a successful retest (bullish price action at trendline support) Stop Loss: Below the pennant’s lower trendline or the SR interchange zone (1.1245 – 1.1260 region) Target: 1.14315 (based on breakout projection) Risk-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2 to 1:3 depending on entry precision 🔍 Psychological & Market Structure Notes: A bullish pennant is a sign of accumulation after a strong rally – it tells us that buyers are resting, not gone. The retest shows institutional behavior: smart money often allows price to come back to a breakout level before driving it higher again, to shake out weak hands and trap late sellers. Momentum traders and breakout traders often wait for confirmation on the retest to pile in with higher confidence. 📚 Educational Takeaway: This setup serves as a great case study in: Continuation patterns (Bullish Pennants) Breakout-retest behavior Measured move target projections Trend confirmation techniques Market psychology and structure If you're learning technical analysis, this is a high-probability pattern that occurs across many asset classes including forex, crypto, and stocks.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Euro H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Euro (EUR/USD) could fall towards an overlap support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.1274 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.1195 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 1.1426 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu