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EUR/USD_SPT - EUR/USD

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EURUSD_SPT trade ideas

EUR/USD Weekly Charts – Decade-Long Trendline Break in PlayEUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1009, sitting right between two major trendlines: 🟢 Long-Term Bullish Support – This green ascending trendline has held since late 2022, forming a solid base for higher lows and signaling a potential macro reversal. 🔴 Multi-Decade Bearish Resistance – The red descending trendline has capped EUR/USD since the 2008 highs, forming a dominant long-term downtrend. We’re now at a critical confluence zone where these two trendlines intersect. Price has pushed just above the red resistance, hinting at a potential breakout—but confirmation is still pending. 🔍 Key Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Breakout: A sustained weekly close above the red trendline could confirm a long-term trend shift. Targets: 1.15, 1.25, and possibly 1.35+ in the coming years. ❌ Bearish Rejection: If this breakout fails, EUR/USD could drop back toward green trendline support (~1.05). A breakdown below that would reintroduce downside pressure toward 1.00 or lower.
by PipShiesty
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 9, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes GBPUSD: On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair broke a two-day losing streak, finding a technical bounce off the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) just north of the 1.2700 mark. Price action remains in a state of uncertainty ahead of the planned imposition of tariffs in the US, with investors maintaining a subdued outlook in anticipation of key US inflation and sentiment data due for release later this week. Overall, the week has been relatively quiet on the UK economic data front, with Tuesday providing a welcome respite from the usual deluge of geopolitical and trade headlines that have become the norm for the Trump administration in recent weeks. Nevertheless, several key policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have provided insights, cautioning that uncertainty and unintended inflationary consequences from US tariffs could complicate, rather than facilitate, the Fed's rate-cutting efforts. However, traders continue to bet that the Fed will be forced to cut rates before the end of the year, as the negative economic fallout from the same tariffs could lead the U.S. into recession. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rate swap traders are beginning to raise hopes that the first quarter-point rate cut could come as early as May. However, most betting market participants still see a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in July as more likely, and 100 bps or more by the end of the year. On Thursday, US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released, followed on Friday by the producer price index (PPI) and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey. This will be the latest in a series of key US inflation and sentiment data relating to the 'pre-tariff' period of 2025, which will be a key indicator for the remainder of the calendar year. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.28600, SL 1.27800, TP 1.29600
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD Forms Triangle Just Below 17-Year Long-Term TrendlineAfter a strong rally from around 1.03 to the 1.10s, EURUSD traders now appear undecided. The white line shown is the 17-year-long trendline, which is currently acting as major resistance. However, this is not a typical short-term resistance level, it's more appropriate to focus on weekly and monthly closes around this area. Still, its presence alone is enough to give Euro bulls something to think about. For more context about long-term outlook, please check our earlier post below: In the short term, the chart has taken the shape of a descending triangle. If the TVC:DXY bounces, EURUSD may face some downward pressure. 1.0880 seems to be the support to follow for direction. Although descending triangles are typically bearish patterns, this one still has a chance to break to the upside due to supportive fundamentals. In either case, the medium- to long-term outlook for EURUSD is turning increasingly bullish.
by ftdsystem
Is China cooking USA trough selling GOV.BONDS and the Dollar? Markets Roiled by New U.S. Tariffs: 28-Hour Recap In the past 28 hours, global financial markets have reacted sharply to the U.S. implementation of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, targeting over 60 countries with adjusted rates ranging from 11% to 50%. The move, aimed at correcting persistent U.S. goods trade deficits, has rattled investor confidence and sparked fears of a global trade slowdown. Key Highlights: U.S. Stocks Dip: The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, while the Dow Jones lost over 600 points amid fears of retaliatory tariffs and rising import costs for U.S. firms. Tech Hit Hard: Tech giants with supply chains linked to Asia, particularly China (now subject to a 34% tariff), saw sharp losses. Apple and NVIDIA shares dropped 3.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Dollar Mixed: The U.S. dollar strengthened against emerging market currencies but weakened against safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both countries also affected (24% and 31% tariffs, respectively). Commodities Volatile: Oil prices slid 2.4% on concerns over reduced global demand, while gold surged past $2,130 as investors sought shelter from market instability. EU Response: The European Union, facing a 20% U.S. tariff, announced it is "evaluating proportional measures." European stock indexes fell by an average of 1.5%. Asian Markets Plunge: Major indexes like the Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively, reflecting panic over trade disruptions. Euro behaving diferently than its usual. It has many reason behind of it but I try to focus to one biggger reason: Why euro is getting stronger once we see Indexes GER30, SP500 etc getting sold ? China is dumping US Treasuries and selling the USD proceeds daily? How we can verify this? - We have a few tools altough its not realtime data but can confirm our suspition 1. Track China’s Holdings of US Treasuries Source: U.S. Treasury’s Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities report Link: home.treasury.gov → Data → Reports → TIC Data Frequency: Monthly Note: A significant drop month-over-month can indicate "dumping." 2. Monitor U.S. Dollar Flows and FX Activity Sources: SWIFT reports (used in interbank transfers) IMF’s COFER database (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) Bloomberg Terminal or Reuters (for real-time data) 3. Watch USD/CNY Exchange Rate Movements If China is selling off USD, this might put downward pressure on the dollar. Use platforms like TradingView, Investing.com, or Bloomberg to monitor this daily. 4. Observe China’s Balance of Payments and Reserves Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Significant reductions in foreign exchange reserves or changes in asset composition may suggest reallocation from USD assets. 5. Check Daily Treasury Auctions and Secondary Market Data Platforms like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or MarketWatch can provide insight into demand for Treasuries. Large sales or weak demand can sometimes reflect foreign selling.
by ElGatoTrade
1
my idea about gold . during the FOMC news today april 9 2025# ✨ XAU/USD FOMC STRATEGY PLAN (April 9, 2025) ## 🔬 Fundamental Context **Event:** FOMC Minutes **Time:** 1:00 PM ET / 10:30 PM IST / 8:00 PM EAT **Market Mood:** - US-China trade tension - Inflation still a concern - Fed likely to sound cautious or hawkish **Implication:** - If hawkish: USD ↗️ = Gold ↓ (but potential fakeout first) - If dovish: USD ↓ = Gold ↗️ (bullish breakout likely) --- ## 🌐 Key Levels to Watch ### ▼ Support Zone: - **2270 - 2255** - Previous demand zone - Potential stop hunt area ### ▲ Resistance Zone: - **2310 - 2325** - Previous rejection - Breakout zone into momentum --- ## ⚖️ Trade Scenarios ### ✅ Scenario A: Hawkish Fed (USD Bullish, Gold Dips) - Wait for gold to dump into **2270 - 2265** - Watch for **M15 bullish engulfing or rejection wick** - Enter BUY: - **SL:** 2257 - **TP1:** 2298 - **TP2:** 2315 ### ✨ Scenario B: Dovish Fed (USD Weak, Gold Pumps) - Wait for **clean breakout above 2310** - Look for **pullback + bullish structure on M5/M15** - Enter BUY: - **SL:** Below pullback low (~2302) - **TP1:** 2325 - **TP2:** 2340 ### ⚠️ Scenario C: Whipsaw / Mixed News - No rush - Let the market choose direction first (wait 15–30 min) - Watch for clean structure shift or fakeouts --- ## 📊 Risk & Management - Use **tight SL** and **defined TP zones** - Risk only **0.5% – 1% per position** - Adjust position size based on SL distance - **Avoid revenge trades** if whipsaw hits --- ## 🌟 Mindset > "Wait like a monk. Strike like a sniper. Let the market come to you." Stay present. Be patient. Gold rewards clarity, not chaos.
by joackimboniface
EURUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price could fall toward our buy entry level at 1.0976, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 1.1076, an overlap resistance. The stop loss is placed at 1.0879, a swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
Euro Firms as U.S.-China-EU Trade Rift WidensThe euro hovered near $1.10, its highest since October 2024, as the dollar weakened and trade tensions escalated. China plans to impose 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods from April 10, following Trump’s 10% tariff on all imports, including 20% on EU and 34% on Chinese goods. France urged firms to halt U.S. investments, and the EU is preparing countermeasures. Markets now price in a 90% chance of an ECB rate cut in April, with the deposit rate seen falling to 1.65% by December from 2.5%. Key resistance is at 1.1100, followed by 1.1150 and 1.1215. Support lies at 1.0900, then 1.0850 and 1.0730.
by ChartMage
EURUSD April 8 Trade ExecutedEURUSD April 8 Trade Executed Analysis coming into the Asia session *Price in discount previous session and recent range *Previous session Price takes sell stops in NY am session comes back down again at 16:00 *Price closes NY in a small consolidation cycle *Expect an expansion in Asia *Asia could come to the 50 level *cross referencing DXY discerning it was in a Premium and likely to seek lower to its 50 level Model factors met to take the trade *Liquidity was taken and tested again *In a deep discount price will want to seek the equilibrium level *On smaller timeframes price *18:00 price makes a swing high *Price comes into a FVG twice to test and then creates a FVG energetically moving to buy side *20:00 open of Asia creates a large displacement candle *20:09 inside the 20 macro I entered *22:40 I exited at the 50 level i had the equal highs as a target, however what I focusing now is low stress in and out trade model repeatable I also wanted to practice my greed wanting more and controlling that need for a clean trade! My model consists of many blending of ICT SMC and this 1 trade model I am back testing is when price is in those deep discounts/premiums at the .79 with liquidity taken HTF target and coming out of a consolidation cycle its getting clearer to see that the 50-equilibrium level is a logic trade. The value of knowing what cycle price is in, is so important along with premium/discount and PD array. Very happy after weeks and weeks of not trusting my analysis and so much discernment, today marks the foundation I can take forward to continuing my back testing this model for consistency in prep for my funded account challenge. Excited to back test 1 model now that I think I m getting it. So cool.
Long
by LeanLena
#eurusd(April8)Levels where price reactions are most likely to occur during the day. Naturally, at each level, you can have buy and sell positions and you can freely use the levels for a new order or for TP of your postions. The levels are updated daily! The results of price reaction to these levels will be shown in the upcoming videos. You should note that the levels are based on price action knowledge, and no indicators are used to determine these levels. Therefore, the reaction ranges could occur a few pips above or below the levels marked on the charts!
by chartwikii