EUR/USD – Technical Price Forecast🔍 EUR/USD – Technical Price Forecast
As of June 18, 2025
Current Price: 1.15040
Bias: Bearish (Short-term)
Timeframe Context: Likely 4H or Daily
🧩 Market Structure Breakdown
🔺 Trend Context
Primary Trend (recent weeks): Bullish impulse from early June
Current Phase: Retracement / potential reversal
⬇️ Recent Price Action
Lower highs forming (arrows mark swing failure at ~1.1650 and ~1.1600).
Price has broken market structure to the downside around 1.1550 with a strong bearish candle.
Current retracement is weak and corrective, lacking momentum.
📐 Key Technical Levels
Level Type Observation
1.1650 Resistance Swing high / aggressive rejection
1.1600 Resistance Lower high + supply zone
1.1550 Supply zone Breakdown area
1.1500 Current zone Minor consolidation
1.1450–1.1400 Demand zone Prior accumulation zone (support)
1.1350 Next support Clean inefficiency below
📉 Liquidity & Order Flow Insight
Sell-side liquidity likely rests below 1.1400.
The recent bullish pullback appears to be a liquidity grab, not a reversal.
Imbalance created by recent bearish move remains unfilled.
📊 Candlestick Behavior
Strong bearish engulfing candle on the move from 1.1550 to 1.1480 indicates supply absorption.
Current candles are corrective and small-bodied — suggesting weak buying and potential continuation down.
🔮 Price Prediction / Forecast
Time Horizon Forecast Summary
Short-term (1–3 days) Expect minor bullish retracement to 1.1530–1.1550, followed by rejection.
Medium-term (3–7 days) Breakdown toward 1.1450, targeting liquidity below support zone.
Extended scenario If 1.1400 breaks cleanly, expect a drop toward 1.1350 and possibly 1.1300 as next support.
📌 Invalidation Level: A daily close above 1.1600 would invalidate this bearish scenario and imply further upside potential.
🧠 Strategy Implications (Pro Traders)
Sell the rally into 1.1530–1.1550 supply with stops above 1.1600.
Take profit levels:
TP1: 1.1450
TP2: 1.1400
TP3 (extension): 1.1350
Risk Management:
Risk-to-reward ratio ≥ 2:1. Confirm entry with bearish price action on lower timeframes (e.g., 1H).
⚠️ Macro Consideration
Multiple economic events approaching (U.S. and EU flags shown) — expect volatility. Hold trades cautiously around high-impact news.
