EURUSD Outlook at Risk of Changing in the Short and Medium TermEURUSD is feeling the bearish pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate. These risks are driving traders toward safe havens, particularly the US dollar and US government debt, which still serve as the backbone of global reserves. The sharp decline in the dollar in recent months has added to this dynamic, but it’s not over yet for euro bulls in all the short, medium, and long term.
However, the options market is flashing a rare bearish signal for EURUSD that traders should not ignore. Risk reversals across all maturities from 1 week to 1 year are falling. The 1-week risk reversal dropped sharply from 0.1075 to -1.10 since last Monday, one of the steepest moves seen recently, even though EURUSD itself has remained relatively flat.
The breakout and successful retest of the long-term downtrend from 2008 to 2025 was a key turning point. As long as EURUSD stays above this trendline, dips are likely to be seen as buying opportunities by long-term investors.
For the medium term, however, a bearish signal (for EURUSD) has emerged from the dollar index. The index broke out of the wedge formation (update the post above to see), retested it, and has since resumed its upward move, creating a strong bullish technical setup.
Now, everything comes down to short-term support. EURUSD has been in an upward trend channel since the retest of the long-term trendline and had also formed a shorter-term trend within that channel. This shorter trendline has now broken and been retested. The next critical level is the 1.1425–1.1440 support zone. If this area fails to hold, it could shift both the short- and medium-term direction to the downside.
Note: In this post, "short term" refers to up to one week, "medium term" to one to several weeks, and "long term" to several months to a few years.
