Market Analysis: EUR/USD Trims GainsMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Trims Gains
EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.1250 support.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today
- The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1380 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1240 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1380 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.1300 support against the US Dollar.
The pair declined below the 1.1250 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.1200 level. A low was formed at 1.1196 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped.
There was a minor increase toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1381 swing high to the 1.1196 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1240 level.
There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1240. The next major resistance is near the 1.1290 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1381 swing high to the 1.1196 low.
The main resistance sits near the 1.1335 level. An upside break above the 1.1335 level might send the pair toward the 1.1380 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1420 level.
On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.1200. The next major support is near the 1.1165 level. A downside break below the 1.1165 support could send the pair toward the 1.1120 level.
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EURUSD_SPT trade ideas
USA-UK: Trade Agreement and Impact
Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the meeting that will take place today, May 9, 2025, between the USA and the UK. The announcement of a new trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom by Donald Trump has immediately attracted the attention of global investors. Its economic scope could have significant repercussions on the main currencies, in particular on the GBP/USD pair.
The components of the agreement and the reactions of the markets
According to initial information, the agreement aims to strengthen trade relations between Washington and London, simplifying regulations on goods and services, reducing duties and incentivizing bilateral investments.
Immediate impact on the pound (GBP)
The GBP/USD pair has shown an initial reaction of volatility, with investors evaluating the details of the new agreement. If the agreement leads to greater economic stability and growth in the United Kingdom, the pound could benefit from a bullish trend in the short term. However, some analysts warn that the pound could suffer from more in-depth negotiations in the future, especially if the deal puts renewed pressure on UK financial markets.
The US dollar and the Fed’s monetary policy
The deal comes amid economic uncertainty in the US, with the Federal Reserve monitoring inflation and growth. If bilateral trade between the US and UK were to expand significantly, it could have a positive effect on the dollar’s strength, even against other currencies.
Economic sectors involved and impact on FX
The deal could affect several sectors:
Energy and raw materials: If trade in natural gas or oil between the two countries increases, it could have an impact on commodity futures and therefore on currencies linked to these markets, such as the CAD and AUD.
Technology and financial services: Expanded cooperation between technology and financial firms could attract investment on Wall Street and support the dollar.
Manufacturing and Exports: If the UK manages to secure favorable export terms, the pound could see increased demand in Forex.
Outlook
In the short term, the deal could lead to increased volatility in GBP/USD as investors await further details. In the long term, much will depend on the economic policies that follow the deal and the effects on the trade balances of the two countries.
Forex market analysts will continue to monitor investor reaction and future statements from the governments involved.
Leo XIV: Impact on the Forex Market
Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the election of the New Pope.
The election of a new Pope is an event with implications not only religious and social, but also economic. With the rise of Leo XIV, the financial world is closely watching the possible repercussions on global currencies and investment strategies.
Immediate effects on Forex volatility
Historically, major political and institutional events can generate fluctuations in international currencies. Italy, home to the Vatican, could see movements on the EUR/USD pair, especially based on the first statements of the new Pontiff regarding the economic policies of the Vatican.
Some investors may react with initial caution, leading to temporary volatility in the Forex market, similar to what happens during political elections or other leadership transitions. However, this volatility could be limited in the short term, unless Leo XIV announces substantial changes in the management of the Vatican finances.
Vatican Financial Policies and Their Impact on Currencies
The Vatican holds significant wealth, with real estate investments and stakes in international companies. If the new Pope decides to adopt a more transparent or ethical strategy in his investments, this could influence the financial sector, prompting global funds to review their investment strategies.
EUR/USD and the Role of the ECB: Possible Vatican interventions on economic and social policies in Europe could prompt the ECB to assess the macroeconomic picture more carefully.
Safe Haven Currencies (CHF, JPY, Gold): If the election generates economic uncertainty, we could see an increase in investments in safe haven assets, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Economic Sectors Impacted
Ethical Finance and ESG: If Leo XIV emphasizes the importance of sustainable investments, companies linked to the ESG sector could see increased interest and capital inflows.
Real Estate: With the Vatican being one of Europe’s largest property owners, any reforms in asset management could have repercussions on real estate markets, influencing the value of the EUR and other related assets.
EURUSD BULLISH BREAKOUT AND RETESTOn the weekly chart, EURUSD recently closed above the 1.2000 resistance which has been a significant price zone since February 2023, with price reversing from this point multiple times. However, in the first week of April 2025, price violated this resistance, with the weekly candle closing well above 1.4000. Not only did the price break above the resistane, it was also confirmed by an ulta high volume bar. Since then, price has been retesting the broken resistane, but look at the volume again, its falling. As the bulls come in at this level, and with subsequent rising volumes,the next resistancce for EURUSD should be at the 1.2300 price zone, which is previous resistance from 2020/2021.
EURUSD Has Completed the Head and Shoulders PatternThe head and shoulders pattern has completed, indicating a likely decline in the EURUSD pair toward 1.1000.
The potential starting points for the fall could be around 1.12800 or 1.13200, but the safest entry to open a short position is near 1.13700.
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💰💵💸EUR/USD "The Fiber" Forex Market Heist Plan is currently experiencing a Bearish trend 🐻,., driven by several key factors.
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Fundamentals 📊: USD leads due to Fed policy, US growth, and tariffs; EUR limited by Eurozone risks 💵📉.
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Global Markets 🌍: US equities and yields drive USD strength; Eurozone trade woes hurt EUR 📈📉.
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Intermarket 🔗: USD benefits from equity/yield correlations; EUR hit by energy costs 📈📉.
Quantitative 📉: Technicals (RSI, Fibonacci, channels) confirm bearish momentum 🐻.
Sentiment 😣: Bearish institutional bias, with retail shorts suggesting short-term EUR bounce 📉📈.
Trend Prediction 🚀📉: Bearish across timeframes, with downside targets at 1.1080, 1.0445, and 1.00 🐻.
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EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D9 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D9 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Weekly imbalance
✅Intraday 15' order blocks
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
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📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
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❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
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GBP/AUD Short, EUR/CAD Short, USD/JPY Short and EUR/USD NeutralGBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation forms, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 15 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
USD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/USD Neutral
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.1282, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 1.1142 a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss is set at 1.1397, above a multi swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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EUR/USD Breakout Watch: All Eyes on 1.12700 Zone
EUR/USD is showing a potential bearish setup after rejecting the strong resistance zone around 1.13800 and forming a Change of Character (ChoCh) at the 1.13100 level. The pair has bounced from the strong support zone at 1.12700 , but structure suggests that a break below this level could confirm a bearish continuation.
🔎 Technical Breakdown:
- Price has respected the lower high structure and retraced to the 0.786 fib level near 1.12975.
- A clear breakdown below 1.12700 support would likely trigger a wave down toward the 1.12100 expected target , which aligns with the 1.618 fib extension.
- If price breaks and holds above 1.13800 resistance , this bearish setup becomes invalid.
📰 Fundamental Drivers Supporting Bearish Bias:
- 🇺🇸 US Dollar Strengthening: Recent U.S. economic data including better-than-expected ISM Services PMI and non-farm payrolls continue to support a strong dollar, limiting EUR upside.
- Federal Reserve Hawkish Stance: Fed officials remain cautious about rate cuts. A prolonged pause or delay in easing continues to attract capital back into USD.
- 🇪🇺 Eurozone Weakness: The ECB has signaled a possible rate cut by June, supported by falling inflation and slowing growth in Germany and France. This diverging policy path weakens the Euro.
Yield Spread Pressure: The widening bond yield spread between U.S. and European bonds favors USD accumulation.
// As long as EUR/USD trades below 1.13800, the bias remains bearish. A confirmed breakdown below 1.12700 could open the door to 1.12100 and deeper targets like 1.11600. //
EURUSD 30min Smart Money Long | Order Block + Discount Entry⚡ EURUSD 30m Smart Money Long | May 9, 2025
We're spotting a strong potential reversal after price melts into a clearly defined Order Block deep in the discount zone. Momentum slows, wicks reject the lows, and we’re stacked for a bullish bounce.
🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES:
📉 Sharp selloff into 1.12204 support
🧱 Bullish Order Block holding with rejection wicks
🧠 Smart Money Entry Zone marked just above 1.1219
📐 Price below 50% Fib = Discounted premium RR
🚀 TP targeting imbalance fill near 1.13204
📊 Setup Specs:
Pair: EURUSD
Timeframe: 30 min
Entry: 1.12204
SL: ~1.12078
TP: ~1.13204
RR: Approx. 1:6+
💡 Smart Money Logic:
Big players often load longs in these deep discount zones, right before the crowd notices the shift. This zone is layered with protection: OB, liquidity sweep, and slowed momentum — textbook for a reversal.
📈 Chart Ninja Note:
"Don’t chase — wait for price to come to you… in the discount, at the OB."
Wave C Completion Confirmation Through Fibonacci and Level BFX:EURUSD We are now in wave C of the fourth wave, waiting for its completion. Fibonacci levels can be counted to determine potential correction targets, but to confirm further, breaking the key level at B should be monitored, as its breakout could provide a strong signal for the next direction.