EURUSD_SPT trade ideas
EURUSD -> Bullish Idea 22/06/2025(ICT x Volume Profile)OANDA:EURUSD 🎯 Bias: Bullish
🕒 Timeframe: H1 primary, H15 confirmation
Happy sunday traders!
Following President Trump’s strikes on Iran, I expect an initial bearish reaction in the Asian and London Sessions, then a bullish reaction in the NY sessions as sellers push the USD lower. However, the prevailing trend context remains bullish: the hourly chart has shifted structure (MSS) and broke structure to the upside. I anticipate a liquidity sweep below the recent lows, before a retracement into the 15-minute fair value gap (FVG) which aligns with the volume profile, then continuation higher to target the weak high and into the swing highs marked.
Can the EUR/USD break out of its range-bound trading?The EUR/USD has advanced for the third consecutive trading day, rebounding above the key 1.1500 level and trading around 1.1530 during the European session. US President Trump's statement that it would take two weeks to decide whether to intervene in the Middle East conflict effectively alleviated market concerns over conflict escalation, providing support for the euro. Analysts believe that the exchange rate is likely to remain range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1600 over the next 1-2 weeks. Any new developments in geopolitical tensions could significantly impact the exchange rate. If positive progress is made in the Iran nuclear talks, the exchange rate is expected to challenge the upper boundary of the range; conversely, if the Middle East situation deteriorates further, the exchange rate may retest the 1.14 support level.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@1.4500-1.4700
TP:1.5300-1.5500
HelenP. I Euro will break resistance level and continue to fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. On this chart, we can see how price initially moved inside a triangle formation, forming higher lows from the trend line and testing the resistance zone multiple times. Eventually, price broke out to the downside, falling sharply and breaking through the lower boundary of the triangle and also the trend line, signaling a shift in market sentiment. After touching the support zone and forming a temporary bottom, the pair started climbing back up, but this movement was more of a correction than a trend reversal. Price respected the trend line from below and followed it upward, but failed to break significantly higher. It managed to push above both support 2 and support 1 levels, which now act as resistance. Currently, EURUSD is trading inside the resistance zone, where previous reactions have led to strong bearish impulses. Given this behavior and the recent false breakout, I expect the price to rebound from this area and break back below support. My goal is set at 1.1350, anticipating further downside movement as the bearish structure remains valid. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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#AN009: US attacks IRAN, what will happen?
On June 22, 2025, the United States launched air strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), using bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles, some dropped by B-2 stealth bombers
President Trump declared that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated”
📈 Tensions and geopolitical context
Tehran responded with missiles aimed at Israel and promised “tough responses”
The UN and key figures such as Guterres and Medvedev have defined the action as a dangerous escalation with the risk of a new conflict on a regional scale.
Israel supported the attacks, while Iran convened the UN Security Council to condemn the aggression.
💥 Market Impact
⚡ Energy Sector
Oil prices jump towards $90–100 per barrel on fears of flows from Iran and potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors reacted with a move towards safe haven assets such as the Dollar, Gold and Treasuries.
📊 Equities and sensitive sectors
Starts on an uncertain tone: S&P500 and Nasdaq futures “volatile open”, with penalties on travel and tech, and increases on energy and defense.
Gulf markets open slightly higher (Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait), thanks to the attenuation of initial sell-offs.
🌍 Global economic impact
Weakening predictions from the World Bank, IMF and OECD predict an economic slowdown due to energy shocks and increased global tensions.
📌 Currency and Forex Scenario
USD has gained ground as a safe haven asset, benefiting from Safety flows.
Commodity-linked pairs, such as AUD/USD, NZD/USD and CAD/USD, will be pressured by rallying oil.
Potential increase in volatility on EUR/USD and GBP/USD: they rotate towards safe haven and US/China political risk.
📣 What to watch out for
Daily and H4 candlesticks in EUR/USD and GBP/USD to understand if support holds under geopolitical stress.
Volatility indicators (VIX | MOVE) are rising, it is useful to calibrate the size and prefer structured trades.
In the coming days it will be essential to monitor:
Reuters/Bloomberg for updates on possible sanctions or public retaliation.
ASEAN and Asia for regional reactions on energy supplies.
Central banks on inflation expectations due to high oil.
💡 Conclusions – Market and Forex Impact
This military action represents a classic geopolitical shock: rising dollar and defensive assets, pressure on oil and high volatility on stock markets and exchange rates. Unlike Israeli attacks, the direct entry of the US increases the degree of macro uncertainty.
For Forex traders:
USD Index: potential rebound within the bullish trend channel
Pairs with commodities: activate strategies on breakout key levels (e.g. AUD/USD, CAD/USD)
Anti-USD FX (EUR, GBP, JPY): under pressure and to be used in range rebound.
For the equity sector:
Rotation towards defensive sectors, defense, energy.
Possible entry into government bonds as a high inflation/political hedge.
Overall, the impact is clear: increased geopolitical risk → high volatility → shift towards USD/safe haven asset → penalization of sensitive assets.
EURUSD weekly outlookI’m waiting for price to tap into the bearish FVG and sweep the buyside liquidity around before looking for a sell. If price sweeps the sellside liquidity or the lower FVG around I’ll shift my focus to a buy setup. Trading both sides of the range based on liquidity grabs and reaction.
AI Algo Systems vs. Manual Trading: Which Delivers Real Results?AI Algo Systems vs. Manual Trading: Which Delivers Real Results? ⚖️
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Introduction
With the explosive rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in financial markets, traders everywhere are asking the million-dollar question:
Should I trust my trades to automation, or keep my hands on the wheel? 🧠🤖
This guide offers a real-world, side-by-side comparison between AI-powered algorithmic trading systems and traditional manual trading. We’ll highlight where each method dominates, when they fail, and how you can combine both to build a system that outperforms the rest. 💡
What Are AI Algo Systems? 🤖
AI trading systems use advanced machine learning models to:
• Analyze huge volumes of historical and real-time data 📈
• Detect patterns and trading opportunities faster than any human
• Automatically execute trades using coded logic, without emotion
🔬 Real-World Examples:
• Neural networks (LSTM, CNN): Predicting EUR/USD direction based on years of tick data
• Reinforcement learning agents: Managing position sizing dynamically in crypto scalping
• Predictive classifiers: Spotting likely trend reversals on S&P 500 based on 20+ indicators
Key Benefits:
• 🔄 Emotionless execution: No fear, no greed, just rules
• ⏱️ Lightning-fast trades: React to price action instantly
• 📊 Pattern recognition: Finds subtle correlations people miss
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What Is Manual Trading? 👤
Manual trading is powered by human intelligence and judgment. Traders use:
• Price action and SMC/ICT techniques (e.g., order blocks, BOS)
• Fundamental analysis: News, sentiment, macro reports
• Intuition and experience: Reading between the lines the way only humans can
🧑💼 Real-World Examples:
• A trader spots an untested order block on GBP/JPY and waits for liquidity sweep before entering
• Reading a dovish tone in FOMC minutes and fading the initial spike on DXY
• Using “market structure shifts” after a big news event to catch a reversal
Key Benefits:
• 🔍 Contextual awareness: Understand the full market story
• 🎯 Real-time adaptability: Adjust plans on the fly
• 🧠 Creative edge: Find setups no algorithm can code for
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Side-by-Side Comparison Table 📋
Feature AI Algo Trading 🤖 Manual Trading 👤
Execution Speed Instant Slower, can lag
Emotions Involved None Prone to fear/greed
Adaptability Limited (needs retrain) High
Learning Curve High (coding/tech) Medium (market logic)
Strategy Flexibility Pre-coded only Unlimited creativity
Backtesting Automated Manual/semi-auto
Session Monitoring 24/5 via server Human-limited hours
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When AI Algo Systems Work Best 💾
AI is unbeatable when you need:
• Scalability: Watching 10, 20, or even 100+ pairs 24/5
• High-frequency execution: Entering/exiting trades within milliseconds
• Repetitive strategies: Like mean reversion, breakout scalps, or arbitrage
📈 Example:
• Strategy: EUR/USD London open breakout
• Process: AI model detects volume and volatility spike, enters trade with 0.3% risk, targets FVG
• Results: 60% win rate, 1.8R average reward over 3 months
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When Manual Trading Wins 🧠
Manual skills shine when you need:
• Discretionary entries: Especially with complex SMC/ICT structures
• Adapting to breaking news: Sudden CPI, FOMC shocks, geopolitical headlines
• Making sense of market narrative: When volatility is off the charts and AI gets confused
🗞️ Example:
• News: Surprise ECB rate hike
• Setup: Price sweeps liquidity and forms new order block
• Action: Trader enters based on confluence of structure, sentiment, and news
• Why AI fails: Model trained on normal volatility might get stopped out or miss entry entirely
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Hybrid Strategy: The Best of Both Worlds 🌐
Elite traders combine the power of AI with human oversight.
Hybrid Workflow:
1. AI scans markets: Flags setups (order blocks, FVGs, volume spikes)
2. You review: Confirm bias with news, sentiment, or higher time frame
3. Entry:
o Manual (you pull the trigger)
o Semi-automated (AI suggests, you approve)
🔁 You save time, avoid missing setups, but keep critical discretion and control.
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Risk Management: Algo vs. Manual 📊
AI:
• Stops, lot size, SL/TP are auto-calculated
• Consistent, never emotional
• Example: EA manages all USD pairs with 0.5% fixed risk per trade
Manual:
• Trader might override risk plan
• Discipline needed—easy to “revenge trade” after a loss
• Example: You up your risk size after a losing streak, breaking your rules
Best Practice:
📌 Let AI calculate risk size. Manually approve or override the entry. Double safety net.
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Trader Case Study 👤
Name: Ray – $100K funded prop trader
Style: Hybrid (AI scanner + manual ICT confirmations)
Process:
• Sets HTF bias each morning
• AI scans for OB/BOS setups during NY session
• Manual review before entry
Performance:
• Win rate: 63%
• Avg R: 2.5
• Monthly gain: 9.7%
Ray’s Words:
“AI catches what I can’t see. I catch what it can’t understand.”
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Mistakes to Avoid ❌
• 🚫 Blindly trusting black-box AI: Always verify signals
• 🚫 Micromanaging every tick: Let automation work, don’t over-interfere
• 🚫 Running AI during high-impact news: Most bots aren’t built for chaos
• 🚫 Ignoring psychology: Even if AI executes, your mindset impacts risk and management
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Conclusion ✅
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. The best traders in 2025 master both worlds. Here’s the winning formula:
• Harness AI’s speed and pattern recognition
• Lean on manual judgment for narrative and nuance
• Blend them with intention and structure for a trading system that’s fast, flexible, and resilient.
💥 Don’t pick sides. Master both.
That’s how the top 1% trade today—and win. 🚀⚙️📊
EURUSD: Important Supports & Resistances For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these supports and resistances for breakout/pullback trading.
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EURUSD| Weekly OutlookSame story as last week — still patiently waiting for the major engineered liquidity above to get cleared before considering any meaningful longs.
That said, EU is currently offering a clean structure for short setups into the downside order block. Everything is lining up technically, but it’s important to note this is a counter-trend move — and personally, I’m not taking it.
It’s tempting when structure looks this clean, but I know it’s not my proper approach. For me, the real play is still higher — waiting on that bull-side OB mitigation to align with the bigger picture narrative. Until then, I’ll let others chase while I sit on my hands. Pure discipline only.
Bless Trading!
Forex and Gold Market Highlights June 21 2025Forex & Gold Market Highlights – June 21, 2025
🕒 Key Events This Week:
• 🏦 Fed officials signaling possible rate cuts vs. cautious economic tone
• 🌍 Escalating Israel–Iran tensions boosting safe-haven flows
• 🏭 Mixed U.S. macro data (retail sales, Philly Fed, housing) shaping Fed expectations
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💶 EUR/USD Nears 1.1520 on Safe-Haven Flows
EUR/USD edged up to about 1.1520 amid weakness in the U.S. dollar, driven by global risk-off sentiment. Mixed signals from the Fed kept traders cautious.
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💷 GBP/USD Hovering Around 1.3500 on USD Strength
GBP/USD remains near 1.3500, slipping slightly off highs after weaker UK retail data. The pair faces resistance in the 1.3550–1.3600 zone.
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💴 USD/JPY Eyeballing 146 Resistance
USD/JPY climbed toward 146.00, driven by risk-averse USD demand and dovish BOJ stance. The pair is testing key retracement resistance near 146.76.
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🥇 Gold Pulls Back but Holds Ground
Spot gold slid to around $3,334 3,381 this week, under pressure from a stronger dollar and diminished Fed rate-cut hopes. Still, geopolitical jitters kept it from falling hard.
• Weekly drop of ~2.5%, trading in a $3,330–$3,400 range.
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📈 DXY Index Rallies on Risk Aversion
The U.S. Dollar Index rose ~0.45%, marking its strongest weekly gain in over a month due to heightened safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions.
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📌 Market Outlook:
• EUR/USD: Mixed bias. May test 1.1550–1.1600 if risk-off continues; downside risk near 1.1400 if U.S. data surprises.
• GBP/USD: Expected to stay in the 1.3450–1.3550 range; UK economic data and USD momentum will be key.
• USD/JPY: Bullish tilt remains toward 146.76, but any BOJ hints of policy tightening could shake it.
• Gold: Pressure from a firm dollar is likely to persist. Watch for geopolitical developments and upcoming Fed signals for reversal clues.
EURUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUP💶 Potential Trade Setup on EURUSD
Overview:
Since March, EURUSD has shown consistent bullish momentum, especially after breaking through the key 1.0600 supply zone.
The pair has maintained higher highs and higher lows, suggesting continued strength in the medium term.
That said, I am still quite anticipating for a possible continuation of the bullish momentum that started a long time ago, and moving forward, I will anticipate for a clear retest of the 50% fib at the 1.1425 region, then I go in for the kill.
Alternatively, there is a clear short opportunity, provided that, the bullish trendline is broken and the 1.1370 region is broken to the downside, this is a bit far a stretch, but it is in play. "IF" the DXY keeps the bullish momentum going.
🧭 Trading Plan:
✅ BUY Bias (Primary Plan):
Look for a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone around 1.1425. This aligns with the ongoing momentum on the 4H timeframe.
🔻 SELL Bias (Alternative Scenario):
If price breaks the bullish trendline and the 1.1370 support zone, a short opportunity opens up.
This is only valid if DXY continues to strengthen, shifting sentiment.
🎯 Targets & Risk Management: Targeting 1:2 R:R on both setups.
Ensure entries are backed by price action signals and confluences.
EURUSD M15 Forecast - Check related IdeaAs explained in previous post we are expecting a pull back down to our order block (H4) then a bullish reversal to retest last weeks highs (1.16) region. If price breaks and closes above the M15 supply zone will have to re-evaluate and potentially take a long position from a retest into a FVG.
EURUSD to Retest 1.16 regionWatching the 1.1490–1.1450 zone for a potential bullish reaction. This area includes a 4H Fair Value Gap and Order Block. If price gives a 15M CoCH within this range, I’ll look to enter long.
Targets: 1.1540, 1.1570, and 1.1610
Invalidation below 1.1440
Patience until price delivers a clear setup.
EU could go up againHi traders,
Last week EU made a bigger (overlapping) correction to the downside so now the wave count is invalid. I must admit that I don't see a clear Elliott wave pattern. There are multiple options.
This last pattern could be a corrective pattern and next week we could see a next impulsive wave.
Or it is a bearish leading diagonal and next week we could see this pair drop.
At the moment my main (fundamental) bias is still bullish.
But let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for more development of price action.
If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURUSD pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell!
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EURUSD Gearing Up for Next Leg Up – DXY Weakens After PPI MissToday, key U.S. economic indexes were released, providing fresh insights into inflationary pressures and the state of the labor market:
Core PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4%
Lower than expected – suggests weaker underlying producer inflation.
PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
Slight miss – overall inflation at the producer level remains soft.
Unemployment Claims:
Actual: 248K | Forecast: 242K | Previous: 247K
Slightly higher than forecast – signaling some cooling in the labor market.
Market Outlook :
These data releases point toward cooling inflation and softness in job growth, which may strengthen the dovish narrative around the Fed’s next move.
DXY Index ( TVC:DXY ) is under pressure, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is showing signs of bullish momentum .
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Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 1-hour time frame .
EURUSD is trading near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) and Monthly Resistance(2) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD appears to be completing microwave 4 . Microwave 4 could be completed at one of the Fibonacci levels .
I expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) at least once more after completing microwave 4 and could even rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1446 , we can expect more dump.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EURUSD RangeThe PO3/ model 1 accumulation i was talking about played out perfectly. I can't tell yet, but the purpose of this accumulation could have been to come back up into supply and redistribute from there to then go lower. I will look for a valid model in case this plays out like that. (I would want to see a better model, i don't like the first deviation)
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has encountered a significant decline, dipping below the Mean Support level of 1.149; however, it exhibited a modest recovery on Friday. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to decrease further to the Mean Support level of 1.148, with the potential for extending its bearish trend to reach 1.140. Nevertheless, there remains a possibility that the current recovery will persist, which could result in price movements targeting the Key Resistance level at 1.158 and potentially leading to a retest of the Outer Currency Rally's 1.163 mark.
Long objective for the following week for EURUSD.We see EU after a deeper mitigation in our range, Shift structure in the lower timeframes, Which can indicate a trend shift in the higher timeframes because the markets are fractal.
We have undetified two significant demand zones for longs positions.
There is also a chance that price can mitigate deeper in our range so we should use correct risk managment because nobody knows from which point price will move from.