Expanded flat for wave four?Looks like we’re carving out the last wave down of an expanded flat . If we play out we should move below 11264 to a possible 11175
EURUSD_SPT trade ideas
On H4 correction not overTimeframe H4:Wave A finished,now wave B.
More correction on wave C if break zone 1.13
EUR/USD: To buy or not to buy(sorry Shakespeare)To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
Hello traders
Straight from the Bart's mouth. Should we continue to duck and dive through this chaos and continue trading? Or will we drown in this sea of troubles?
Well, I shorted EUR/USD last night at 1.1535 with an eye towards 1.1413 as a purely technical play after the tirade to fire Powell which we all know is so much baloney because he is just the mouthpiece of the FOMC, not the ultimate decision maker. The pop higher over the weekend was illiquid because of the Easter weekend.
I closed my short at 1.1420 and was planning on shorting again at 1.1480 but the live on TV announcement that he has no intention to fire Powell upended that apple cart.
I have initiated a short position at 1.1405 after the retracement from the 1.1308 low with an eye towards 1.1000 but who knows?
He has now softened his stance on the Chinese tariffs but once again, don't hold your breath.
The only certainty we can count on is that there will be continuous uncertainty.
Gold has a shooting star on the 2D chart and DXY has a long tailed Doji on the downside.
Long story short, keep swimming. We chose this career voluntarily and while we will never outsmart the market, we can definitely switch from free style swimming to back stroke to Esther Williams water ballet BUT don't just give up.
Good luck all.
Why All You Need Is the Chart: Let the Market Speak FirstYou missed the news? Doesn’t matter. The chart already heard it for you.
________________________________________
1. The Myth of Being “Informed”
Modern traders feel pressured to be constantly plugged in:
• Twitter alerts
• Trump’s latest outburst
• CNBC headlines
It feels like you’re missing out if you’re not watching everything.
But here’s the truth:
By the time you read the news, the market already priced it in.
Being "informed" doesn’t make you early . It usually makes you late .
________________________________________
2. The Chart Already Knows
Imagine a bullish surprise in the economy. You didn’t catch it live.
But when you open your chart, you see this:
📈 A bullish engulfing candle bouncing cleanly off major support.
That’s all you need. That’s your trade. You don’t need to know why it happened.
The chart speaks last. And the chart speaks loudest.
________________________________________
3. Price Is the Final Judge
All the noise — opinions, reports, breaking headlines — flows into a single output: price.
• Economic collapse? The chart shows a break.
• Political turmoil? Price still rejects resistance.
Price is truth.
Instead of asking: " What happened? ", start asking: " What is price doing? "
________________________________________
4. Real-Life Analogy
You don’t need to read the newspaper to know it’s raining. Just look out the window. 🌧️
Same with trading. Just look at the chart.
The price is your weather forecast. React to that. Not to noise.
________________________________________
5. What to Do Instead of Watching News:
• Draw clean support/resistance levels
• Wait for real confirmation (engulfings, breakouts, rejections)
• Manage risk — always
• Be patient. Let the market show its hand
________________________________________
Final Thought:
If something important happened, you’ll see it on the chart. You don’t need 10 sources. You don’t need speed. You need clarity.
Let the chart speak. It knows more than the news ever will.
EURUSD Faces Choppy Movement, Eyes 1.1330EURUSD Faces Choppy Movement, Eyes 1.1330
EURUSD is currently moving without a clear direction, creating a challenging trading environment. However, based on the latest price action, the pair has broken out of a small triangle pattern, signaling a possible short-term decline toward 1.1330.
This move could gain support if today's ADP employment data surprises the market. Expectations are set at 108K, down from 155K last month, but the ADP report has exceeded forecasts multiple times recently. Since April tends to be a strong month for employment, there’s a chance for better-than-expected numbers.
Still, the focus remains on technical pattern, so let’s see how the setup plays out.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD Correction
Yesterday, EURUSD continued to move sideways above 1,1300, showing no strength for a new push higher.
This suggests we could see a continuation of the correction toward the next support levels.
These levels, identified using Fibonacci retracement and previous highs, are 1,1253, 1,1183, and 1,1055.
Keep an eye out for a continuation of the correction and how the price reacts.
Avoid trading against the main trend!
EUR/USD short: WIll Moby Dick sink the global economy?Hello traders
The allegory of our current global economy and Moby Dick, the rare white whale, hunted by the obsessed Captain Ahab, is not one I am writing about in a light hearted manner.
A refresher: Moby Dick(China) bites off Captain Ahab's(USA) leg and is subsequently relentlessly hunted by the obsessed captain who wants revenge. At the conclusion of the novel, Captain Ahab is oh, so close to killing the elusive whale but gets entangled in the rope of the harpoon and is dragged down to his own watery death by the wounded whale.
Moral of the story? Moby Dick is a classic American novel and China has not eaten the USA's lunch. I do not see any winners in this tariff war but rather the distinct possibility of a global recession and potential melt down like 2008/2009.
At the heart of this conundrum is DJT's obsession with trade imbalance going back to his first term. The irony being, the 2018 trade imbalance was the biggest ever under his watch.
I love these magnificent United States more than anything but let's get real. DJT won his second term on the persistent high inflation after COVID-19 and immigration not because we, as privileged Americans are suffering as the richest country on the planet(except for Swiss citizens). While I also support regulated immigration, we as Americans, do not want to perform the "menial" jobs that migrants are willing to do. My ancestors survived WW1, WW2, the dust bowl, the Great Depression and every subsequent calamity but never lost track of the integrity in ANY job that feeds a family.
There is a lot of whining about losing manufacturing jobs to China but I dare anyone who feels that they have missed out on a job opportunity to go and pick oranges in the blazing Florida sun with a 50 pound bag on the back or work a low paid job in a sneaker manufacturing facility.
Let's not forget what drives the USA economy: the consumer. We have benefitted from cheap/inexpensive Chinese labor and goods for a long time and will feel the pain if this tariff war is not resolved in a realistic manner. China's currency manipulation has always been geared towards boosting their exports and I do not foresee that policy changing anytime soon.
China is denying that any trade talks are happening and there is increasing day light visible between DJT and his Cabinet members. Bessant won't confirms trade negotiations and Rubio claims not to know what DJT's stance is towards Russia/Ukraine.
It all comes down to DJT's obsession with the white whale, China. Who will blink first? I do not know but this zero sum game is dangerous and could potentially plunge the entire global order into a crisis the likes of which will dwarf WW2 and 2008/2009.
I have initiated a short EUR/USD position at 1.1420 with an eye toward 1.0958 or lower. I am not claiming that the divestment in USA assets has run its course but at this point, I am inclined to reaffirm my belief in American exceptionalism but not in leadership. The Euro Zone still stands to lose more than the USA, especially in the light of tepid German economic performance and the unresolved Ukraine/Russia war.
There has been a lot of smoke and mirrors during the first 100 days with a flurry of executive orders to fight the woke culture, annex sovereign territories etc. but as human beings, we all have a need and right to shelter, food, clean water and air and the ultimate, the pursuit of happiness. And happiness goes right out the window when the aforementioned rights are not met or satisfied.
So, here lies the Moby Dick moment. Will DJT's obsession with tariffs and power drag us all down? Distinct possibility...
Thank you for listening to my two cents and best of luck with your trades. How you draw the distinction between noise and trading signals, is up to your own analysis. I can only speak for my own bank account and capital but tread lightly through this minefield that should never have happened in the first place.
EUR/USD , here’s a clean pattern breakdown:1. Market Structure
Range-Bound Consolidation Zone between 1.1325 – 1.1383
Multiple equal lows near 1.1325 → liquidity pool
Strong bullish impulse leg prior → possible bullish continuation base
Lower highs forming since the spike near 1.1570 → potential descending triangle if support fails
2. Key Levels (Marked on Chart)
Resistance:
1.1383 → Recent high / breakout cap
1.1421 → Prior HTF supply
1.1472 / 1.1570 → Major HTF OBs
Support:
1.1340 → Micro support
1.1325 → Liquidity base (very reactive)
1.1279 → Key HTF Demand Zone (OB + FVG)
1.1248 → Breaker block zone
3. Patterns Detected
Mini Range Formation between 1.1325 – 1.1380
Equal Lows Sweep Setup → classic bullish liquidity trap play
Break & Retest Play forming around 1.1380 zone
Candle wicks show bullish absorption at the base (1.1325)
Volume rising on bounces = demand showing up
4. Trade Bias & Setup Ideas
Bias: Bullish above 1.1325, bearish below 1.1279
Intraday Trade Idea:
Look for sweep of 1.1325 liquidity, then H1 bullish engulfing or M15 engulfing + volume surge
TP1: 1.1380, TP2: 1.1420, SL: below 1.1310 (1.5x ATR)
Swing Play Idea:
If price closes above 1.1380 with strength, potential breakout toward 1.1420 → 1.1470
5. Session Play Map
London: likely sweep + bounce
New York: continuation or breakout zone
Asia: typically range-bound or sweep setups
EUR/USD – Swing Trade Recommendation
As of: April 25, 2025 – 3:25 PM EST
Broker: Oanda
Current Price: 1.1368
ATR (H1): ~19 pips
Risk Level: Medium
Bias: Bullish ✅
🧠 Swing Setup Logic
We're in a bullish continuation zone after multiple defenses of the 1.1325 liquidity base. Price is compressing below 1.1380, forming a potential breakout structure. HTF trend remains bullish with W1 + D1 both holding higher lows. Momentum building.
🛠️ Swing Trade Setup
Entry Plan:
Buy on H4 close above 1.1385 with confirmation from volume spike or
Buy the retest of 1.1380–1.1365 zone with bullish engulfing on H1/M30
SL: 1.1310 (1.5x ATR buffer under structure)
TP1: 1.1420 (2R)
TP2: 1.1470 (3R)
TP3 (trail): If daily candle closes above 1.1470, trail using H1 higher lows
Lot Size (1% risk on $20K): ~1.05 lots (with 58-pip SL)
⚠️ Risk Filters
News Risk: No high-impact events in next 6 hrs ✅
Volume Check: Only enter if breakout candle has >20% above avg volume
Rejection Filter: Avoid entry if breakout stalls at 1.1385 (double top warning)
🧩 Final Score (Pre-Trade Grading)
HTF Trend: ✅ (2/2)
Confluence: ✅ (2/2)
Price Behavior: ✅ (2/2)
RR Quality: ✅ (2/2)
News Filtered: ✅ (2/2)
Total Score: 10/10 → TRADE CONFIRMED
✅ Swing Recap
Bias: Long
Entry Trigger: Break & Retest or Breakout of 1.1385
Target Range: 1.1420 → 1.1470
Stop: 1.1310
Risk:Reward: 1:2.2 to 1:3.3
Confidence: High
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.16000.Good afternoon colleagues! In the coming week I expect the upward movement to continue in wave “3” of the higher order. I believe that a small correction to the support area of 1.2176 and then rise to the resistance level of 1.16000 is possible.
There are two possible ways to enter the position:
1) Market entry
2) Pending limit orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Possible correction in EURUSDI am paying attention to the breakout of this triangle:
That could lead to a correction to key support levels to the 1.118 - 1.12 area
After that I'll be looking for longs in the mid term to continue the bullish momentum
EUR/USD short: Will Moby Dick drag down the global economy?Hello traders
The allegory of our current global economy and Moby Dick, the rare white whale, hunted by the obsessed Captain Ahab, is not one I am writing about in a light hearted manner.
A refresher: Moby Dick(China) bites off Captain Ahab's(USA) leg and is subsequently relentlessly hunted by the obsessed captain who wants revenge. At the conclusion of the novel, Captain Ahab is oh, so close to killing the elusive whale but gets entangled in the rope of the harpoon and is dragged down to his own watery death by the wounded whale.
Moral of the story? Moby Dick is a classic American novel and China has not eaten the USA's lunch. I do not see any winners in this tariff war but rather the distinct possibility of a global recession and potential melt down like 2008/2009.
At the heart of this conundrum is DJT's obsession with trade balance going back to his first term. The irony being, the 2018 trade imbalance was the biggest ever under his watch.
I love these magnificent United States more than anything but let's get real. DJT won his second term on the persistent high inflation after COVID-19 and immigration not because we, as privileged Americans are suffering as the richest country on the planet(except for Swiss citizens). While I also support regulated immigration, we as Americans, do not want to perform the "menial" jobs that migrants are willing to do. My ancestors survived WW1, WW2, the dust bowl, the Great Depression and every subsequent calamity but never lost track of the integrity in ANY job that feeds a family.
There is a lot of whining about losing manufacturing jobs to China but I dare anyone who feels that they have missed out on a job opportunity to go and pick oranges in the blazing Florida sun with a 50 pound bag on the back or work a low paid job in a sneaker manufacturing facility.
Let's not forget what drives the USA economy: the consumer. We have benefitted from cheap/inexpensive Chinese labor and goods for a long time and will feel the pain if this tariff war is not resolved in a realistic manner. China's currency manipulation has always been geared towards boosting their exports and I do not foresee that policy changing anytime soon.
China is denying that any trade talks are happening and there is increasing day light visible between DJT and his Cabinet members. Bessant won't confirms trade negotiations and Rubio claims not to know what DJT's stance is towards Russia/Ukraine.
It all comes down to DJT's obsession with the white whale, China. Who will blink first? I do not know but this zero sum game is dangerous and could potentially plunge the entire global order into a crisis the likes of which will dwarf WW2 and 2008/2009.
I have initiated a short EUR/USD position at 1.1420 with an eye toward 1.0958 or lower. I am not claiming that the divestment in USA assets has run its course but at this point, I am inclined to reaffirm my belief in American exceptionalism but not in leadership. At this point, the Euro Zone still stands to lose more than the USA, especially in the light of tepid German economic performance and the unresolved Ukraine/Russia war.
There has been a lot of smoke and mirrors during the first 100 days with a flurry of executive orders to fight the woke culture, annex sovereign territories etc. but as human beings, we all have a need and right to shelter, food, clean water and air and the ultimate, the pursuit of happiness. And happiness goes right out the window when the aforementioned rights are not met or satisfied.
So, here lies the Moby Dick moment. Will DJT's obsession with tariffs and power drag us all down? Distinct possibility...
Thank you for listening to my two cents and best of luck with your trades. How you draw the distinction between noise and trading signals, is up to your own analysis. I can only speak for my own bank account and capital but tread lightly through this minefield that should never have happened in the first place.
EUR/USD: Long-Term Breakout with Fundamental and Tech ConfluenceFor the first time since 2008, EUR/USD is showing signs of a potential long-term trend reversal.
The pair has broken above the descending channel that has defined the bearish structure for over 15 years.
But this is not just a technical breakout — the fundamentals support this move as well.
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as the market shifts its rate expectations.
Instead of the 1–2 rate cuts initially priced in for 2025, forecasts now suggest 2–3 cuts, possibly more depending on the pace of economic softening.
This aligns well with the breakout we are observing on the chart.
Technical picture: confirming the breakout on all levels
1.The descending trendline from 2008 has been broken.
2.On the weekly timeframe, the price has already secured a close above this trendline, confirming the breakout structurally.
3.On the monthly timeframe, the 100-period SMA sits right at the neckline area of a large double bottom reversal pattern — adding one more layer of confirmation.
These factors are not isolated — they support and reinforce each other, creating a confluence of signals across multiple timeframes.
Target according to classical technical analysis:
The minimal target for this breakout stands at 1.2300.
This is both a major resistance zone from previous highs and approximately 70% of the height of the larger double bottom pattern — fully in line with the textbook approach to classical chart analysis.
EURUSD Breakout: Momentum Building or Another Fakeout?EURUSD’s expanding wedge breakout looks legitimate, supported by the Daily channel — but if the monthly close falters, expect more drawn-out volatility rather than a clean trend.
EURUSDHello, traders
Trend Overview: The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a bullish trend, supported by a prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action suggests a sideways consolidation (coiling price action) possibly triggering a corrective pullback towards a newly formed support zone, previously a resistance level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
1.1240 – Previous resistance turned support, key level for potential bounce.
1.1144 – Secondary support level if 1.1240 fails.
1.1000 and 1.0890 – Stronger support in case of extended retracement.
Resistance Levels:
1.1475 – Initial resistance level on the upside.
1.1595 – Next target if bullish momentum continues.
1.1700 and 1.1830 – Long-term resistance and key breakout point.
Market Sentiment & Price Action: The recent corrective pullback aligns with normal market fluctuations within an uptrend. A bullish bounce from the 1.1240 support level could trigger an upside move, targeting the 1.1475 resistance level and potentially extending towards 1.1595 and 1.1700 – 1.1830 over a longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 1.1240 support, accompanied by a daily close below this level, would weaken the bullish outlook. This could lead to further downside pressure, potentially testing the 1.1144 level, with an extended decline towards 1.1000 and 1.0890 if selling pressure intensifies.
Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair remains in a bullish structure as long as the 1.1240 support holds. A successful bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend, targeting higher resistance zones. However, a decisive break below 1.1240 and a daily close under this level could shift sentiment bearish, leading to further downside retracement.
EURUSD Bullish or Bearish Today?As you can see in my chart drawing, EURUSD is going through an uptrend channel. Now it's coming from the channel resistance, so it might be a pullback until the channel bottom.
On the other hand, the euro is gaining fundamental strength against the USD!
Therefore, the trend may persist until this week's NFP. This analysis is based on the current trend and fundamental situation of the market.
This information is not financial advice or any trade signal; it's just for educational purposes, so please do your own analysis before taking any entry on this asset.
Thank you
EUR/USD – Perfection in Motion🔥 EUR/USD – Perfection in Motion 🔥
This 20HR chart is a textbook example of precision trading:
Price tapped perfectly off the Fibonacci 0.236 at 1.1368 and held.
You can clearly see how the structure is respecting both the 11HR low and 18D Candle Bottom zone.
The rejection wick from the top aligns with the 20HR Previous High at 1.1572, adding confluence to this current retracement.
We're now in a tight reaction zone, where the next candle or two will tell the story: is it continuation… or deeper pullback?
This is why I focus on: ✅ Zone behavior
✅ Candle reaction
✅ Trend maturity
Not just noise.
📊 "The market doesn't lie — it just waits for you to listen."
#EURUSD #SmartMoney #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingStructure #PerfectionInCharts
Will the EUR/USD find support and rally or give up it's run?In this video I go over EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NVDA & SPX.
With an overall bearish outlook on the U.S. Dollar, I'm watching for support to hold above 1.1200 on the EUR/USD in order to continue the rally.
Although a pullback was expected after an aggressive up move over the span of 3 weeks, this will be interesting with a good amount of economic data set to release beginning on Tuesday.
We'll see if Bulls hold up or if Bears decide to show some strength.
As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Thu 24th Apr 2025 EUR/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a EUR/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
EURUSDEUR/USD Directional Bias in the Face of Tariff War
The ongoing tariff war—particularly between the US and China, but also involving threats of US tariffs on the Eurozone—is exerting a complex but generally bullish bias on the EUR/USD pair in the short term, despite underlying economic headwinds for the Eurozone
Key Drivers of EUR/USD Directional Bias
1. US Dollar Weakness from Trade War Fears
The escalation of US-China tariffs and threats of additional US tariffs on Eurozone goods have led to increased fears of a US recession and higher inflation, both of which are negative for the dollar.
As US companies face higher costs and potentially lower revenues due to tariffs and retaliation, the market expects the US economy to falter faster than others, prompting capital outflows from the dollar and into other currencies, including the euro.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to multi-year lows, supporting EUR/USD gains.
2. Euro as a Relative Beneficiary
Despite the ECB's dovish stance and recent rate cut, the euro has benefited from the dollar’s weakness and the perception that Europe may weather the trade war fallout better than the US, at least in the short run.
The Eurozone’s willingness to consider fiscal support measures and the potential for capital repatriation from US assets to Europe further support the euro.
3. Market Sentiment and Positioning
Speculative positioning is increasingly bullish on the euro, with net long positions at their highest since September 2024.
However, commercial hedgers are extending short exposure, suggesting caution and the potential for volatility.
The pair is approaching overbought levels, so while the bias is up, a short-term retracement is possible if the rally becomes overstretched.
4. Risks and Uncertainties
Any signs of de-escalation in the tariff war or a sudden improvement in US-China or US-EU trade negotiations could quickly reverse the euro’s gains.
The Eurozone is not immune to trade war fallout; ECB estimates suggest tariffs could cut Eurozone GDP by 0.5–1 percentage point, which could weigh on the euro if realized
Summary Table: EUR/USD in Tariff War Context
Factor Impact on EUR/USD
US-China/EU Tariff Escalation Bullish for EUR/USD
US Recession Fears Bullish for EUR/USD
ECB Rate Cuts Limits EUR upside
Eurozone Fiscal Support Supports EUR
Market Positioning Bullish, but watch for volatility
Trade War De-escalation Bearish for EUR/USD
Conclusion
In the current tariff war environment, the EUR/USD directional bias is bullish, driven primarily by US dollar weakness and relative safe-haven flows into the euro. However, this bias is fragile—vulnerable to changes in trade policy rhetoric, economic data surprises, and any signs of de-escalation. Near-term, EUR/USD could continue to test higher resistance levels, but overbought conditions and Eurozone economic risks may cap gains or trigger corrections.
eurusd longtarget at 1.17000
sl 1.12000
long market .
trump has not yet been able to push the dollar higher
Why does it always go against you? You might be new to trading, you may have several years of experience. But, where a lot of people still seem to go wrong is in not realising the relationships.
I have posted hundreds of educational posts here on Tradingview from cartoons, trying to simplify techniques through to market relationships between technical systems such as Elliott Wave and Wyckoff.
Many new traders fall foul of social media posts covering "SMC - Smart Money Concepts" and are not seasoned enough to appreciate what or why these can work for some and not for others.
You have Elliott Wave traders, there is a saying along the lines of "if you put 10 Elliott traders in a room searching for a wave count you will come out with 11 different answers"
This isn't to say Elliott doesn't work, nor Smart Money.
The market seeks liquidity, it forms seemingly complex patterns that humans try to make sense of. We are great at that, seeing patterns even if they are not there. - Look, there's an upside-down butterfly 1.618 extension!
First, you need to appreciate Elliott Wave counts on smaller timeframe are pointless, especially in the age of algo's and bots. However, sentiment on the larger timeframes can't really be spoofed.
In this first image; you can see a market wave that is straight out of a textbook.
Let's also add some Wyckoff; if you were to visualise this - Wyckoff schematics would be visible on smaller timeframes, the Green boxes represent accumulation and the Red show distribution.
Let's overlay and Elliott Wave count -
Take that to the next level, this count is only part of a higher fractal count.
How does this fit into smart money concepts? well, it's more like - How does Smart Money fit into this?
Elliott waves and Wyckoff have been around for over 100 years. Many of the techniques shown on YT video's today can be traced back to these older concepts.
Now, if you can see how a 1-2 EW count pushes up for a 3. You can zoom in again and start to see what to expect when trading using SMC.
In this image you can see a drop, then a gap as price pushes back up (I haven't bothered drawing wicks for simplicity assume their inside the box)
Many traders would now anticipate a move that looks something like this.
Only to see price do this
Yeah - you're not the only one!
The next issue is where and how Supply and Demand is drawn.
Ok, the gap didn't hold, it must be the demand level there. GO AGAIN!!!
How did that play out? Trade 1, Trade 2 =
What about now?
Price holds the support
This time you are afraid to go in. Then one of two things happens.
1)
Or
2)
In the first image, we can see a sweep of prior liquidity and that creates momentum for a move up. In the second image, price simply melts away.
This is an easy fix. It all comes down to understanding what the charts are trying to tell you.
People love to talk about how "Smart Money" is the banks and institutional players - how they are playing against you on every click of the button.
The truth is, most people don't understand the market.
When larger players enter the market, the can leave a pretty obvious footprint. In addition to that - they leave behind orders they had but were unable to fill. These orders they will be defended with even more buying or selling (if they need to), and this is the premise for a rally and pullback or a drop to pullback.
Now, visualise a 1-2 Elliott Wave move. Why do you think 2 often comes back so deep?
What would you expect the move from 2-3 to do?
Powerful push, yes?
In this image, the move that created demand is simply the opposing colour candle before the power play. The significant move pushed up (showing institutional involvement). Hence, a location they will likely defend.
In addition to the push up, they pushed with so much money - it created a natural gap.
This type of example doesn't always have to be a power play 1-5 up, it could be visualised on pullback moves too.
Here's a great example recently on Euro.
The demand candle 'buy before the sell" is clearly targeted on the way up. Price fails to close above it, drops, goes back to retest - sweeps and drops. If you were to zoom in you will see on smaller timeframes evidence of a Wyckoff schematic with a UTAD.
Add a volume profile there.
As the price breaks above, after it's pullback you can see an acceleration in price and of course the area has the PoC.
Back to where people go wrong.
They will see this GAP created and assume price will come back here to reject and go. However, look closer and the demand that started the move is very near that gap.
Where is the juicy liquidity? PoC is another little clue.
Let's take this to another level.
In this image I have a range, using the prior high just to give the example in this post.
We are in an uptrend = we just broke the high, we expect a Pullback. Where would that likely target?
Zoom in again. This time I have added a fixed range volume tool.
What do you know?!
Anyways, once you get a handle on the bigger picture and understand the relationships, you can zoom into any timeframe you like - the game is always the same.
Have a great week all!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
EURUSD below its 4H MA50 signals more selling.The EURUSD pair broke last Wednesday below its 4H MA50 for the first time since the start of April and is now consolidating under it. Within its 3-month Channel Up, this has always been a signal of more downtrend to come as it was technically halfway through the Bearish Legs of the pattern.
Given that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is the medium-term Support, our Target is at 1.12500, just above the Internal Higher Lows trend-line. Check also the 4H RSI sequences between these 3 Bearish Legs. It is exactly ranging between the levels it did half-way through those Legs.
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EURUSD LIVE TRADE AND EDUCATIONAL BREAKDOWNEUR/USD remains offered around 1.1350
EUR/USD trades well on the defensive for the second day in a row, revisinting the mid-1.1300s on the back of the continuation of the upside impulse in the US dollar. The move followed firmer US PMI data and news indicating the White House may be considering tariff cuts on Chinese imports.
