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EUR/USD_SPT - EUR/USD

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EURUSD_SPT trade ideas

EURUSD Long Setup – Bullish Rejection from Demand ZoneEURUSD remains supported by strong eurozone fundamentals and broad USD softness. The pair has retraced into a key demand zone around 1.1490 and is showing signs of bullish rejection. With the Fed likely to pause further rate hikes and the ECB maintaining a steady tone, the bias favors further upside toward recent highs. ⚠️ Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran conflict) have introduced mild safe haven demand, but so far the USD has underperformed versus the euro, suggesting EUR remains relatively insulated. Watch for confirmation and entries within the blue demand box. 🔍 Technical Analysis: Structure: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price retraced to a well-defined 1H demand zone between 1.1490–1.1500. Setup: Anticipating a bounce from the demand zone targeting the recent high near 1.1620–1.1630. Entry Zone: 1.1490–1.1500 (bullish reaction area) Target: 1.1620–1.1630 (previous supply zone) Stop Loss: Below 1.1439 (recent swing low) Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.5 🧠 Fundamental Context (as of June 16): EUR Bias: Bullish – ECB has paused cuts; euro is resilient despite geopolitical headwinds. USD Bias: Bearish – Fed is on pause; soft inflation data and geopolitical risks weigh on dollar strength. Key Drivers: Fed dovish tone (FOMC pause, lower CPI) Strong EU resilience despite global tensions CHF and JPY attracting safe haven flows over USD 📅 Key Events to Watch: US Core PCE (next major inflation readout) FOMC commentary and Fed speakers Eurozone CPI and sentiment data
Long
by ultreosforex
27
Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation. The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets) On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth. Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did. From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants. However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other. all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers! Chart White dashed line - 2008 Resistance Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily) Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP
by RobertTMFX
1
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1611 1st Support: 1.1495 1st Resistance: 1.1649 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1546 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1497 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Take profit: 1.1611 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Euro Testing Significant Resistance Level! Hey Traders so today was watching Euro it is in strong uptrend confirmed with my favorite 3 bar trendline. So normally best way to trade the trend is buy when it pulls back to the trendline. I like to use a candle that might hold support around 1.1457 but we also have strong high at 1.576 So aggressive entry would be to buy at that pullback 1.1457-1.1475 wide stop loss below support. Conservative would be wait for break above that 1.576 high proving market wants to move higher then wait for it to come back and test that level again on pullback and buy at 1.576 If your bearish I don't think it's good to short right now with uptrend showing signs of strength. I would wait until market trades below trendline before considering taking bearish position. Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
Long
by TradeTheIndex
EUR/USD - continue with the UptrendOn EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.14390. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
by Trader_Dale
EURUSD - Bullish Continuation ConfluencesStory : Market is making series of HH and HL with a trendline support respect. Market has respected Fib level of 50% on HL at 1.14747 level. Currently there is no divergence therefore we are ignoring any reversal or Harmonic pattern. however, Bullish Flag pattern can be seen on the chart. Also the Seasonal of this pair is Bullish in the month of June based on last 15 years data Anticipate : I anticipate that market will keep moving in bullish trend. Plan : We plan our entry on the break of neckline which is 1.16272 and with our R:R of 1:1 & 1:2 plan our TPs accordingly at 1.17935 and 1.19252 as marked in the chart. Pull the trigger Guyz and grab your profit. DO like, share and comment if you liked tha analysis.
Long
by ProTradeProfessor
EURUSD Last push before correction.The EURUSD pair made a new High by breaking above the 1.15725 Resistance and is extending the rally since the January 13 2025 Low. That Low was the Higher Low of the multi-year Channel Up, so the current uptrend is technically its latest Bullish Leg. The first Bullish Leg of that pattern peaked after a +15.75% rise. We expect a similar peak for the current rally, thus targeting 1.17750, before a new pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD at Key Resistance – Bull Trap or Breakout Incoming?The Euro has rallied into a major supply zone at 1.15800+, a level that hasn’t been broken since mid-2023. As price trades within this supply range, traders are eyeing either a strong breakout or a potential rejection back toward demand. 🟦 Key Supply Zone: 1.14994 – 1.16100 🟧 Major Demand Zones:  • 1.09023 (mid-range)  • 1.02903 (long-term support & prior consolidation base) ⚖️ Current Outlook: • EURUSD is showing strength, but bullish momentum is slowing at resistance. • A rejection candle from here could signal downside toward 1.0900 and even 1.0290. • Break and close above 1.16100 on the daily would confirm bullish continuation toward untested zones. 🗓️ Marked Date: January 29, 2025 – Previous structure shift & start of bullish wave 💡 Watch Closely: Price behavior around the current supply zone will determine direction for weeks ahead. Risk/reward now favors patient traders — wait for confirmation! 🧠 Chart Tools: LuxAlgo Supply & Demand Visible Range Timeframe: Daily (1D) 🚨 Potential Scenarios: 🔺 Breakout = Target 1.1800+ 🔻 Rejection = Drop toward 1.0900 – 1.0300 👇 What’s your bias here? Are the bulls done or just getting started? #EURUSD #ForexSignals #LuxAlgo #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #ForexStrategy #BreakoutOrRejection #FrankFx #TradingViewAnalysis #SmartMoneyTraders
by FrankFx14
Long trade 🟢 EURUSD – Buyside Trade Date: Monday, 16th June 2025 Session: London Session AM Time: 5:00 AM Entry Timeframe: 1Hr TF Trade Parameters Entry: 1.15748 Take Profit: 1.16144 (+0.34%) Stop Loss: 1.15581 (−0.15%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.29 🧠 Trade Reasoning This buyside trade was executed after price swept the sell-side high from Monday, 21st April 2025, triggering liquidity above the previous swing, and then sharply rejecting back into structure. The reaction occurred above a 1Hr Fair Value Gap (FVG), indicative of a directional bias.
Long
by davidjulien369
EUR/USD Forms Inside Day at Key ResistanceWith the greenback under pressure, we take a look at EUR/USD, which has just formed an inside day pattern at key resistance. As both macro headwinds and high-impact data loom, the next breakout or fakeout could set the tone for the week ahead. Dollar under pressure ahead of high-stakes week The dollar is reeling after Donald Trump reignited global trade tensions, pushing the currency to its weakest level in three years. His comments about reintroducing reciprocal tariffs within weeks have triggered a sharp decline in the greenback, which fell over 0.8% against a basket of major peers. Alongside this, geopolitical jitters over Iran and reports that the US may reassess its Aukus defence pact have further dampened sentiment, with traders increasingly questioning the strength of America’s international alliances. The weakening in the dollar has been exacerbated by weaker-than-expected inflation, which has encouraged market participants to bet more heavily on interest rate cuts from the Fed later this year. Futures now price in two quarter-point cuts, undermining the dollar’s yield advantage. Meanwhile, the euro has found support from signs that the ECB may be nearing the end of its cutting cycle, adding relative strength to the single currency. All eyes now turn to Tuesday’s US industrial production figures, followed by EU inflation data and the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, as traders look for fresh direction. Compression at resistance: All eyes on Thursday’s range Last week’s rally saw EUR/USD push into a key level, with price retesting resistance created by the April highs. Although the pair briefly broke through on Thursday with a close above the level, Friday’s session was far more cautious. Price action stayed entirely within Thursday’s range, forming an inside day pattern that now acts as a pressure point for the next directional move. This setup reflects a temporary standoff between bullish momentum and longer-term resistance. Inside days often precede breakouts, but they can also lure in traders only to reverse violently. The key now lies in how price reacts to the boundaries of Thursday’s range. A close above it, particularly on strong volume, would be a clear signal of continuation and likely invite further buying. A close below it on strong volume would mark a failed breakout and open the door to a short setup. For those trading this setup, Thursday’s high and low now form essential levels. Not only do they serve as breakout triggers, but they also offer logical zones for stop placement. In short, the market is coiled, the fundamentals are volatile, and price is poised. EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results EUR/USD Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Capitalcom
Breaking: Euro's Momentum Could Trigger $1.19 Surge Current Price: $1.1546 Direction: LONG Targets: - T1 = $1.1700 - T2 = $1.1900 Stop Levels: - S1 = $1.1400 - S2 = $1.1300 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Euro trading. **Key Insights:** The Euro has shown strong resilience despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The European Central Bank (ECB)'s signaling of a more neutral stance regarding rate hikes has bolstered confidence in the currency. Furthermore, economic challenges within the Eurozone—such as weaker industrial output and shrinking trade surpluses—present medium-term hurdles but align with structural optimism for strategic positions in EUR/USD. Traders are closely watching key support levels as bullish momentum begins to gain traction. The weakening U.S. dollar, alongside dovish Federal Reserve messaging, plays into Euro strength on the back of favorable interest rate differentials. Additionally, geopolitical factors such as stability concerns surrounding emerging market economies have directed investor interest toward safer currencies like the Euro. **Recent Performance:** Over the past week, EUR/USD has hovered around $1.1546 with limited volatility, reflecting strong support levels amidst subdued trading activity. Despite facing negative economic data on industrial production (-2.6% m/m) and trade surplus contraction (€30B to €10B), the pair continues to indicate upside potential fueled by positive speculative sentiment and ECB policy interpretation. Seasonal trends suggest historical Euro strength in mid-year trading windows. **Expert Analysis:** Forex analysts widely express bullish sentiment on EUR/USD, supported by ECB communication and diminishing macroeconomic risks. Several technical setups are aligning with long-term resistance breaks near $1.17, with momentum indicators signaling high buying interest. Many see pullback opportunities to nearby support levels ($1.1400 - $1.1300) as high-value entry points for future gains. On the technical front, the MACD shows a bullish crossover while the RSI remains in moderate territory, suggesting room for potential upside moves without overbuy signals. The Euro's price action momentum also suggests increased trading volume near critical levels, indicating strengthening trend formation. **News Impact:** Upcoming ECB speeches, coupled with Eurozone CPI releases, could solidify expectations on inflation and monetary positioning—factors likely to increase Euro demand. Additionally, tariff announcements targeting electric vehicle imports and other related trade dynamics are projected to strengthen Euro-backed industry sentiment. Recent repatriation of global investment capital into Euro-dominated equities adds to structural Forex tailwinds. **Trading Recommendation:** Traders should consider taking a bullish stance on the Euro, supported by strong technical indicators and positive macro factors. Entry near current price levels offers favorable risk-reward metrics, with stop-loss placements below $1.1400 providing downside protection. Elevated resistance levels at $1.1700 and $1.1900 manifest as achievable targets in the short- to medium-term horizon, with sustained caution on event-driven volatility.
Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Testing Upper Channel Line || Eyes on 1.16 and Previous High📌 EURUSD 4H – Testing Upper Channel | Eyes on 1.1600-1.1666 🕓 June 12, 2025 👤 By: MJTrading 🔍 Technical Overview: EURUSD continues its upward trajectory within a clean ascending channel, respecting both dynamic structure and EMA support zones. We're now retesting a key confluence area: ============================================================== 🔻 Bearish Setup Idea: Entry Zone: 1.1570–1.1600 Stop Loss: Above 1.16666 (round number & psychological resistance) Target: Channel midline (~1.1450) or lower band (~1.1380) 🧠 Why This Zone Matters: 🔺 Previous Swing Highs: Price is revisiting the April peak zone (~1.1570) 🧱 Round Number Confluence: 1.1600 & 1.1666 📉 Rising Channel Resistance: Upper boundary hit after extended leg 🔄 Potential Mean Reversion: EMAs are lagging behind price ⚠️ Invalidation: A clean break and close above 1.1700 with follow-through may invalidate short bias and signal continuation toward 1.1800+ 💬 Patience is power. Let the levels do the talking. 📎 #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #TechnicalTrading #SmartMoney #PriceAction #RoundNumberLevels #MJTRADING
Short
by MJElahifx