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EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on. The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16 Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene. For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value. The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness. So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time. Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy. Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news . Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar. The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party. On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America. US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut? US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve. So what does the market do? It prices in a cut. Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny. ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises? Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency. Here’s why it’s rising instead: Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon. The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms. Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life. Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out. Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction. From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.” Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
by TradingView
19
Get Ready – A Pullback May Be ImminentEUR/USD has rallied impressively, gaining nearly 1,400 pips from its February 2025 low. The pair recently surged to revisit a price level last seen in November 2021. However, after such a strong bullish move, a correction appears likely. I’m anticipating a potential drop of at least 500 pips from the current level after hitting a strong resistance on multiple time frame. Check the chart for more details. Stay safe and trade smart.
Short
by Integrity_GoldFX
Judas Swing Monday Recap – Sticking to the Plan Pays 09/06/2025In case you're new to the Judas Swing Strategy, here’s the strategy in a nutshell: It’s a classic price manipulation strategy where the market fakes a move in one direction (the “Judas” move), usually after the 00:00–08:30 EST window, before sharply reversing. This tactic is often used by smart money to trap retail traders around key highs/lows, followed by a reversal into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) for entry confirmation. We began Monday spotting a textbook Judas Swing on FX:EURUSD which was our first trade of the day. Price took out session lows, grabbing liquidity, then gave us a break of structure to the upside and a clean reversal into the FVG. We entered long with our stop loss below the manipulation low. The trade moved nicely into profit and came within points of our target but just as we were anticipating a clean 1:2, price stalled and reversed aggressively, stopping us out. Trade Outcome: Loss Risk-Reward: -1% Lesson: Even the most valid setups will sometimes fail The next Judas swing setup came on $GBPUSD. Price swept the low of the zone, then gave a break of structure, with price retracing into the FVG. We entered long, placing the stop loss 10 pips below entry price. The trade rallied hard post-entry, hitting our target with minimal drawdown Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: +2% This is why we take every valid setup. The win here offset the earlier FX:EURUSD loss, keeping us net even on the day at this point The final Judas swing setup on Monday was on OANDA:AUDUSD , and it couldn’t have been cleaner. After a strong sweep of previous lows, price reversed and broke structure convincingly. An FVG formed and price retraced into it beautifully. We entered long, placing the stop below the liquidity sweep. Price then rallied steadily throughout the session, and retraced almost hitting our stop loss but turned around and hit our 1:2 target. Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: +2% Despite starting the day with a loss, staying disciplined and trading all valid Judas setups left us with: 1 loss ( FX:EURUSD -1%) 2 wins ( FX:GBPUSD +2%, OANDA:AUDUSD +2%) Net Gain: +3R This is why a rules-based approach beats emotional trading. Stick to the process, and the edge takes care of the rest.
by CleoFinance
EU| Workflow - End of Week but Still in SyncPrice still pushing with strong bullish conviction, so I’m just flowing with it and waiting on that precision entry — nothing forced, just discipline and patience. Even though we’re nearing the end of the week, the workflow and higher timeframe analysis still align, so I’m staying ready. I’ve got my zones mapped out and I’m watching for price to pull back into that green zone POI. Once that mitigation happens, I’ll drop to the 1M for the structure shift and look for that 5M LH break to confirm my entry. Just letting the setup mature and keeping emotions out of the way. 📊 Always open to hearing how others are viewing EU right now — let’s elevate the convo while we wait on the market to give us the greenlight. 🎯 #SMC #EU #SmartMoney #TopDownPrecision #InducementKing #JuicemannnStyle #ForexFlow #EndOfWeekExecution Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD Outlook – Long, Medium & Short-Term Analysis🔹 Weekly Chart: The broader structure remains technically bearish. We've recently seen a trend reset, which could mark the beginning of a fresh downside leg. 🔹 Daily Chart: A clear bearish trend reversal pattern has formed, accompanied by a manipulation phase. A confirmed break structure is now in place. As long as price remains below 1.15734, short positions remain valid. 🔹 4H Chart: Currently in a range-bound phase. A confirmed break below 1.1371 will be a key bearish trigger for potential selling opportunities. 🔹 1H Chart: Still ranging, but a valid Lower Low (LL) has already printed. A second LL below 1.1371 would confirm a short-term bearish continuation. On the flip side, a break above 1.1495 would open the door for a bullish move in the short term. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Bullish above: 1.1495 Bearish below: 1.1371 Critical invalidation: 1.15734 Trade safe and stay disciplined.
by Charts247TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD LongHere is our EUR USD Signal that we posted As you can see it's running nicely at 258 Pips. EURUSD Buy 📊Entry: 1.13538 ⚠️SL: 1.12594 ✔️TP1: 1.14732 ✔️TP2: 1.16256 ✔️TP3: 1.18194 We have 5 big swing trades running at present, all of which comes from our trading strategy that is solely based on pure maths. So far in 2025 we have hit 1 stop loss from over 100 trades. My point to this post is to encourage you all to keep trying, don't give up. It took us over 2 years to perfect this strategy, and we know it works. If you want any help just ask me, and I will help you.
Long
by Elite_Trading_Signals
EURUSD BEAR - H1I have given out everything you see here for free.... Plus everything can be verified easily (TradingView Profile / Bio is all I am allowed to say). I do have a higher bear if you saw the rules... keep an eye on the solid swing (levels) Plus I do have a breakout BULL waiting if the bear structure fails. I have made this very simple. I trade the wicks every time. That's why I can roll stops to entry after TP 1 (Fixed at 1:1 +35P) All my levels have a tolerance of 15 PIPS... just like the banks. BUT I will not be adding more day trade levels (white bordered) (Intraday levels are dashed)
Short
by elitetechfx-daily
2
EUR/USD: Weekly PAT + VPA 5/11/2025Trading Analysis EUR/USD - Price Action and Volume Price Analysis Weekly Structure Analysis: At present, we find ourselves within a bullish weekly range. The lower boundary of this range is 1.07330, established during the week of March 24, 2025, while the upper boundary is at 1.15734, reached the week of April 21, 2025. The price movement from 1.073 to 1.157 has surpassed a swing high, which we will identify as our initial resistance point as we aim to return to 1.15734. Weekly Price Action Analysis: Analyzing structure and price action reveals similarities. Our confidence in a bullish trend is the anchored weekly bar. The weekly candle from the week of April 7, 2025 serves as this anchor. Following the inside bar, we observed a bearish pin bar, which acts as a Bullish Reacher since its wick exceeded the high of the anchor bar's wick (Wick on Wick). The market shows signs of wanting to rise, but it must first hit a demand zone that weekly traders are keen to engage with. Volume Price Analysis: The last four weekly candles have demonstrated limited strength in driving the market lower, with support holding at 1.11927 (1.12). As the price declines, trading volume is decreasing, following a sharp upward movement, likely due to profit-taking or repositioning. Volume analysis indicated we should retest 1.15734. Good luck and happy trading! OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY
Long
by ThePipAssassin
3
#AN006 Forex: Dollar, Yen and Emerging Currencies Collapse Hello, I'm Forex trader Andrea Russo, creator of the SwipeUP Elite FX Method that analyzes the market like a Hedge Fund. Today I want to talk to you about the most important economic news of the last few hours and how these are influencing, in real time, the global currency market. ## 🔜 US inflation: is the Fed heading for a cut? The CPI data released yesterday surprised the markets: annual core inflation stopped at +2.8% while the general figure stood at +2.4%, below expectations. This inflationary cooling immediately triggered speculation about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as September. The Dollar Index (DXY) reacted negatively, losing ground and touching the lowest levels since April. ### Forex Impact: * The dollar weakens across the board. * EUR/USD tested the 1.15 area * GBP, JPY and CHF strengthened in counter-balance. ## 🌐 US-China trade tensions: half-way deals Over the past 24 hours, President Trump spoke of "partial progress" in talks with China on tariffs and rare metals. However, the lack of a definitive deal keeps global uncertainty high. Investors are weighing the risk of a new escalation, especially in strategic sectors such as technology and raw materials. ### Forex impact: * AUD and NZD show high volatility. * JPY benefits as a safe haven currency. * Commodity currencies remain reactive to geopolitical developments. ## 📉 ECB: rate cut and expansionary forward guidance The European Central Bank has cut interest rates to 2%, marking the eighth consecutive cut. The governor opened up to further expansionary measures in the third quarter, should inflation fail to rebound towards the 2% target. ### FX Impact: * The euro remains under pressure, despite the dollar weakness. * EUR/CHF in congestion. * EUR/USD in a sideways phase after the initial rally. ## 🚗 Emerging Markets: New Cycle of Strength According to the World Bank, growth in emerging markets will slow to 3.8% in 2025. However, currencies such as the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Mexican peso (MXN) have gained momentum thanks to the dollar weakness and speculative inflows on carry trades. ### FX Impact: * BRL and MXN strengthen. * Long-term opportunities on USD/EM crosses. * Beware of political risks and local inflation. ## ⛽ Oil rally: domino effect on currencies Oil prices rose this week: WTI hit +6%, while Brent marked +4%. The rally was triggered by improvements in US-China relations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. ### Forex Impact: * Strengthening CAD and NOK. * EUR and JPY penalized as net importers. * Correlation opportunities on USD/CAD. ## 🔄 Forex Outlook: what to expect now The market has entered a phase of **macro realignment**: * The dollar is in structural correction. * The euro is struggling between ECB stimulus and USD weakness. * Safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF) remain strong. * Emerging markets and commodity currencies show momentum. In the short term, the key will be the evolution of US data (PPI, retail sales) and new statements from the Fed. Keep following me for updates and operational analysis always based on real data and institutional methodology.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD BULLISH OR BARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD is showing strong bullish momentum after a clean bounce from the key support zone around 1.12. Price structure confirms higher lows and strong bullish candle formations on the daily chart, suggesting the bulls are in control. This recent move is backed by a textbook retest and rejection from the previous resistance-turned-support zone, giving confidence in a potential continuation toward the 1.19 level. With the current price trading near 1.15 and pushing higher, the market is positioned for a strong bullish wave in the coming sessions. From a fundamental perspective, the Euro has gained fresh support after the ECB’s decision last week to proceed with a measured and data-dependent rate cut cycle. While the ECB delivered its first cut, the tone was cautious and far less dovish than anticipated, which kept EUR strength intact. On the USD side, traders are pricing in a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, especially with recent CPI and PPI data pointing toward cooling inflation. This divergence in policy outlook continues to favor EURUSD upside in the medium term. Technical indicators are also confirming the bullish bias. The pair is riding an ascending trendline, and momentum indicators like RSI remain in bullish territory without yet being overbought. A daily close above the 1.1550 area strengthens the case for a continuation move. The price is aiming for the next major resistance around 1.1770–1.19, where bulls are likely to take profit or scale out. Until then, dips are likely to be bought aggressively, as long as the 1.12 support remains intact. This setup presents a high-probability opportunity in a trending market backed by both fundamentals and technical confluence. As long as the bullish structure holds, I remain long-biased on EURUSD with eyes on the 1.19 zone as the next key level. With increasing market interest, low volatility on the downside, and strong trend-following signals, this pair is set for a continued rally.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
DeGRAM | EURUSD held the support📊 Technical Analysis ● Euro holds above 1.137 – 1.140, where the channel’s mid-line meets the old wedge roof, printing a fresh higher-low (green arrow). ● Price is compressing inside a pennant capped at 1.142; flag height projects to 1.156 – 1.160 at the rising-channel median once 1.142 gives way. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● After the ECB’s “one-and-pause” cut, sticky EZ core CPI (2.9 % y/y) and softer US payrolls narrowed the 2-yr rate gap, keeping flows tilted toward the euro. ✨ Summary Buy 1.137–1.141; pennant breakout >1.142 targets 1.156 → 1.160. Long bias void on an H4 close below 1.126. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
EURUSD has follow the ascending channel bullish from support FX:EURUSD Analysis – 1H Time Frame EUR/USD is currently respecting an ascending channel and showing strong bullish momentum from the key demand zone at 1.13900. 🎯 Technical Targets: 1st Target: 1.14600 2nd Target: 1.15000 The price action confirms buyer interest and continued upside potential, as long as the structure holds. 📊 Stay tuned for more updates and trade setups! 💬 Like, follow, and drop your thoughts in the comments! — With love, Livia 😜
Long
by experttrader04
8