SELL EURUSDEURUSD displaying a bearish flag pattern. Price will fall to the support at 1,343 in the next trading sessions.
EURUSD_TOM trade ideas
1.12078 is a possible target (Weekly/Daily FVGs)I think that the price could go down to the middle of a weekly Fair Value Gap.
Euro dollar, $1.15 is a major technical resistance$1.15, a technical target that was expected
Since the beginning of the year, the euro dollar has established itself as the leader of the foreign exchange market (Forex). Up by more than 10%, it has outperformed all other major Forex pairs, and this upward movement has been built up in stages from a technical analysis point of view. The major chart target of $1.15 has now been reached, a pivotal technical threshold that dates back to 2020/2021.
Since the start of the year, there have been a series of bullish reversal signals on the EUR/USD rate, with a break of resistance at $1.06 in early March, a bullish reversal pattern reminiscent of autumn 2022, and a recently validated golden cross. Elliott wave analysis suggested an end to wave 2 in February, which was validated by price action and momentum indicators.
The $1.15 mark had been the technical target since the $1.06 mark was breached, and the market could now breathe a sigh of relief below this resistance.
Below is a chart showing the performance of the major Forex pairs since the beginning of the year.
Institutional traders were again the forerunners
But what gives even more weight to this move is the behavior of institutional traders. As is often the case, they were the first to sense the bullish reversal. The COT report published by the CFTC shows that, from the beginning of March, hedge funds swung into the long camp, with their net positions returning to positive territory. Shortly afterwards, asset managers followed suit, and the entire institutional net position went bullish by over 50%, historically a major bullish signal (see the second chart below).
Now the real question is: are they still buying at these levels? Do they strengthen? If they start to lighten up, it'll be a game-changer. But for now, support is there, even if the euro-dollar rate were to pause or retrace below $1.15 resistance in the short term.
Support at $1.10/$1.12 is the guarantor of the uptrend.
Below, chart showing weekly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, with the institutional positioning curve according to the CFTC's COT report
So, can we aim for $1.20 by the end of 2025?
From a purely technical point of view, it's not impossible, but we'd need to break above $1.15/$1.17 to activate such a target. And fundamentally, it won't happen by itself. A combination of factors is needed: a euro buoyed by German economic momentum, the end of the conflict in Ukraine, an accommodating but credible ECB, and above all, a weakened US dollar, which requires a healthy “FED put”, in other words, a FED that eases because disinflation is confirmed, and not under the constraint of a recession. We also need to keep a close eye on interest-rate spreads: a spread too favorable to the dollar would break the momentum. In short, $1.20 is technically conceivable between now and the end of the year, but conditional on a macroeconomic context that is not yet present.
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EURUSD Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Swing Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a like or comment!
EURUSD 21 ABRIL 2025This could be the potential move for EURUSD that I’d be expecting for the week, based on the outlook of a continued weaker dollar.
Trump’s clear intention is to weaken the economy, and with a higher likelihood of interest rate cuts, this could increase the value of other assets relative to the dollar.
EU bearish to bullish.Watch eurusd at the weekly imbalance for longing opportunities, also consider 4hr shift in structure before taking your trades. Good Luck.
EUR/USD 1-Hour Breakout Trade SetupTrade Overview
I'm sharing a breakout trading opportunity on the EUR/USD pair on a 1-hour timeframe, currently priced at 1.13698. This setup targets a potential breakout from a descending channel, offering a clear risk-reward scenario.
Chart Analysi
Descending Channel: The price is approaching the upper boundary of a descending channel, marked by a blue trendline. This suggests a possible breakout or reversal.
Resistance Zone: A key resistance is identified around 1.13714 (purple horizontal band), where the price recently faced rejection.
Support Zone: Support lies near 1.13680 (lower purple band), serving as a potential stop-loss or entry adjustment level.
Breakout Plan: If the price breaks above 1.13714, I plan to add 0.3 lots ("Add 0.3 L near"), adjusting the stop-loss to this level ("SL to new Position") to lock in profits.
This is a breakout trade with a focus on risk management. I'll enter on a confirmed break above 1.13714, scaling in with 0.3 lots, and trail the stop-loss to the entry level. The setup leverages the channel's upper boundary for a high-probability move, with the SMA providing additional confluence.
Risk Management
Initial SL: 1.13680 (below support).
Adjusted SL: 1.13714 (post-breakout).
Target: Dependent on channel breakout strength, aiming for the next resistance or a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
Let’s see how this plays out—feel free to share your thoughts or follow along!
possibility of uptrendThe triangle pattern is expected to complete in the current support range and we will witness the start of an upward trend.
EURUSDGiven the strength of the moving average, I expect the upward movement to continue.
first pullback to trendline then break the top
EURUSD seguimos esperando esquema para compras.📍EUR/USD Update 💶💵
After grabbing liquidity in the marked zone, we’re now waiting for the buy setup to form. If price reacts correctly, we’ll be ready to enter with confirmation.
🔹 EUR/USD: still waiting for the buy setup.
Patience and focus — the move could be close.
EURUSD INTRADAY ECB Rate decision in focus!Trend Overview: The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a bullish trend, supported by a prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action suggests a sideways consolidation (coiling price action) possibly triggering a corrective pullback towards a newly formed support zone, previously a resistance level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
1.1240 – Previous resistance turned support, key level for potential bounce.
1.1144 – Secondary support level if 1.1240 fails.
1.1000 and 1.0890 – Stronger support in case of extended retracement.
Resistance Levels:
1.1475 – Initial resistance level on the upside.
1.1595 – Next target if bullish momentum continues.
1.1700 and 1.1830 – Long-term resistance and key breakout point.
Market Sentiment & Price Action: The recent corrective pullback aligns with normal market fluctuations within an uptrend. A bullish bounce from the 1.1240 support level could trigger an upside move, targeting the 1.1475 resistance level and potentially extending towards 1.1595 and 1.1700 – 1.1830 over a longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 1.1240 support, accompanied by a daily close below this level, would weaken the bullish outlook. This could lead to further downside pressure, potentially testing the 1.1144 level, with an extended decline towards 1.1000 and 1.0890 if selling pressure intensifies.
Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair remains in a bullish structure as long as the 1.1240 support holds. A successful bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend, targeting higher resistance zones. However, a decisive break below 1.1240 and a daily close under this level could shift sentiment bearish, leading to further downside retracement.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
bullish eurusdI'm back again with nice setup for eurusd we looking for bullish movement, break and retest of trendline.
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D16 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D16 Y25
GM.
This play could well materialise sooner rather than later.
The weekly higher time frame order block previously provided an incredible sell off. We have arrived and simply looking to get involved in the short party.
15' order block identified.
But a tap In London short? NO. We will await for 1' break of structure alongside bearish candle stick formations.
FRGNT X
The Day AheadWednesday 23rd April 2025
Key economic data includes April flash PMIs for the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, and the Eurozone. These are important indicators of economic momentum and inflation pressures, with potential impact on FX, rates, and equities. In the US, March new home sales will provide a read on housing market strength. The UK reports March public finances, which could influence gilt markets and sterling. In the Eurozone, February trade balance and construction output data are on deck, offering insights into trade dynamics and sector-specific activity.
Central bank focus is high. The Fed releases its Beige Book and features speakers including Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, and Hammack. Markets will be listening closely for signals on rate expectations and regional economic trends. From the ECB, Knot, Villeroy, and Lane are scheduled to speak, potentially influencing eurozone rate expectations. From the Bank of England, Bailey, Pill, and Breeden will offer comments that could affect sterling and rate outlooks.
Earnings are heavy and span key sectors. Notable names reporting include IBM, ServiceNow, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Boeing, GE Vernova, Chipotle, O’Reilly Auto, Thermo Fisher, Boston Scientific, NextEra Energy, Newmont, Philip Morris, AT&T, General Dynamics, and Volvo. This mix provides important reads across tech, industrials, healthcare, and consumer sectors.
On the fixed income side, the US Treasury will auction 2-year floating rate notes and 5-year notes. Watch for yield curve movements and demand signals, particularly given the dense schedule of Fed speakers.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD Top - Down AnalysisHello Students and Traders,
Just thought to give y'all a quick top-down analysis on the EURUSD pair today.
While we see some Bearishness on the Monthly chart, the lower time frames of the Weekly, Daily and 4 Hour are all looking Bullish. With these 3 timeframes having a confluence of liquidity target, which is only a few pips shy of the Monthly Zone, it appears the market is looking to drive prices bullish, right into the Monthly Zone, from where we will expect and hope to see the resumed bearishness of the Monthly, together with a consequential reversal of trend on the 3 timeframes of the Weekly, Daily and 4 Hour Timeframes.
For now, we wait and watch how prices play out on the 1 hour, to give us the confirmation to move Bullish, or expect a short term bearish reversal.
Enjoy the analysis guys...
How to use Correlation for your tradingHello,
Understanding correlation is key to elevating your trading success for two main reasons:
Avoid Trading Against Yourself: When you buy one asset and sell another that is positively correlated, you risk offsetting your gains with losses. This often results in a zero-sum outcome, as one trade may profit while the other incurs a loss. Recognizing correlated pairs helps you avoid this pitfall and trade more strategically. Using the chart below its clear that it will be unwise to sell GBPUSD while buying EURUSD since both pairs move in the same direction.
Capitalize on Lagging Pairs:
Identifying correlated pairs and their movement patterns enables smarter trading decisions. By spotting which pair tends to lead and which lags, you can focus on trading the lagging pair to increase your probability of success. While risks remain, this approach allows for more calculated and potentially profitable trades.
The charts provided illustrate the positive correlation between GBPUSD and EURUSD, showing how they move in tandem. This insight allows you to confidently buy or sell one pair based on the movement of the other, optimizing your trading strategy.
Goodluck in your trading.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Trapped sellers EU longEur group is showing strength, while USD shows weakness.
we can capitalize on that to be bullish on EU!
EUR/USD Holds Firm as U.S. Policy Uncertainty GrowsEUR/USD traded around 1.1530 on Tuesday, while the dollar index remained around 98.4, weighed down by concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and escalating trade tensions. President Trump called for swift rate cuts and suggested removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, fueling worries over political influence on monetary policy. The sentiment was further impacted by stalled US-China negotiations and China’s warnings to countries aligning with Washington.
Key resistance is at 1.1550, followed by 1.1600 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1400, then 1.1260 and 1.1180.
EUR/USD – 15D Chart Breakdown📈 EUR/USD – 15D Chart Breakdown
Let me be clear—this isn't a guess. This is structure.
After tapping into the 1.017 level (Fibonacci base), price made a clean reversal, printed a solid bullish candle, and has now closed above the 1.127 zone.
🚀 I'm now watching: • Fibonacci Extension 1.618 (1.1850)
• Then the previous high at 1.2349
• With the 2.618 at 1.2882 if the momentum keeps pushing
💡 I don’t react to noise.
I focus on zone behavior, candle reaction, and overall trend maturity.
This isn’t about being right—it’s about staying aligned with the market narrative.
🧠 Patience > Prediction
📅 15D candles don’t lie—retail panic does.
EUR/USD SHORT POSITIONDuring a market turnover the market usually retest or fills left over market gaps or imbalances before continuation. This would be a perfect time for EUR Buyers to get washed out before market decides to continue to the upside. This also would close the losing positions of the market makers shorts against the retail Investors and they would get better buy order before continuation of Q2 books for EUR/USD positions.
EUR/USD Breakout Extends Toward 1.15 – Is 1.17 Next?The euro continues its sharp ascent, breaking convincingly above key resistance at 1.1200 and now eyeing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1745. Momentum remains firmly bullish:
🚀 Price has surged through both the 50- and 200-day SMAs
📈 MACD is accelerating higher, showing strong bullish momentum
📊 RSI is nearing overbought territory at 74.92, but not diverging yet
As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1200, the path of least resistance may remain higher. However, traders should watch for signs of exhaustion near the 1.17 area, a key technical confluence that could slow the rally.
-MW
