EUR/USD 4H Timeframe AnalysisEUR/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis
Trend:
In the 4H timeframe, EUR/USD is in a downtrend. The price broke below the major support at 1.06200 and then retested, which has now become our major key resistance zone. The price then dropped further to the next minor support at 1.0330,then moved up, created a gap, and filled it for a short time. Following this, the price started creating lower lows and lower highs until it returned to the major key resistance. There, an inverted hammer was followed by a bearish engulfing candle, signaling a potential price reversal.
Additionally, the price broke the rising wedge chart pattern and retested the minor resistance at 1.05300. Afterward, the price moved lower and broke below the minor support.
Price Action Expectation:
We expect another reversal at the minor key resistance. Once the price breaks the resistance, triggering stop-loss liquidations from sellers, we anticipate a move downward. If the price moves back below the minor support, we will enter a sell stop order below the minor support at 1.04908, with a stop loss at 1.05490 (between the liquidity area). Our take profit target will be the next minor support at 1.03360.
Trade Setup: Sell Stop
Entry: 1.04908
Stop Loss: 1.05490 (between the liquidity area)
Take Profit: 1.03360 (next minor support)
Risk: 1%
Fundamental Outlook:
The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs, although it’s stronger against commodity currencies. In the broader picture, the market has likely reached the peak in the repricing of interest rate expectations. It will take stronger catalysts to further price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This environment supports the US Dollar and could keep downward pressure on EUR/USD in the near term.
