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EUR/USD_TOM - EUR/USD

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 25 June 2025 - EURUSD broke resistance level 1.1575 - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1800 EURUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance level 1.1575 , which is the former monthly high from the middle of April. The breakout of the resistance level 1.1575 continues the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of May. Given the strong daily uptrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.1800, which intersects with the daily up channel from May.
Long
by FxProGlobal
EURUSD broke the Resistance level 1.16100 👀 Possible scenario: The euro rose 0.1% on June 24, nearing 1.16250 and hitting a 2.5-year high of 1.16410, as the U.S. dollar softened following soft remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and weak U.S. data. Powell warned that tariffs may boost inflation this summer but signaled openness to rate cuts if economic risks grow. U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in June, fueling concerns about a slowing job market and economy. This boosted expectations for a July Fed rate cut, now seen at 18%, and supported the euro as traders weighed diverging Fed-ECB policy paths. Traders now see an 18% chance of a July cut, boosting the euro amid diverging Fed-ECB outlooks. ✅ Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.14535 Resistance level is located at 1.16330
by MaxOnMarkets
Short trade 4Hr TF overview 🔻 Trade Journal Entry – Sell-side Trade 📍 Pair: EURUSD 📅 Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2025 (You wrote June 15th — adjusted to match your current date sequence) 🕒 Time: 5:00 AM (London Session AM) ⏱ Time Frame: 4 Hour 📉 Direction: Sell-side 📊 Trade Breakdown: Metric Value Entry Price 1.16072 Profit Level 1.14888 (−1.02%) Stop Loss 1.16244 (+0.15%) Risk-Reward Ratio 6.88 1 🧠 Context / Trade Notes: 4HR Premium Entry from Bearish OB: Trade executed at the upper end of the internal range, where price tapped into a high-probability bearish order block. London AM Stop-Hunt: Price swept a prior London session high before rejecting, indicative of engineered liquidity and smart money distribution. Break of Structure & Momentum Confirmation: Following the sweep, price broke internal structure to the downside, confirming bearish intent.
Short
by davidjulien369
EUR/USD Nears 1.1620 Before Powell’s TestimonyEUR/USD edged up to 1.1615 in early European trading on Wednesday, supported by improved risk sentiment after Israel and Iran signaled an end to their air conflict. The truce, backed by pressure from President Trump, increased appetite for risk assets, favoring the euro over the dollar. All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated on Tuesday that monetary policy will remain data-driven. However, comments from Kansas City Fed President Schmid hinted at caution due to tariff-driven inflation. While markets expect a rate cut in September, July odds have edged slightly higher. Resistance is at 1.1630, while support is at 1.1530.
by ChartMage
Market next target 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish) 1. Price in an Upward Channel: The price remains within a clear ascending channel, respecting both upper and lower bounds. The bearish arrow prematurely predicts a breakdown while no support break has occurred. 2. Strong Bullish Momentum: Price is making higher highs and higher lows, a textbook bullish structure. The recent dip respected the lower trendline and was followed by strong green candles. 3. Volume Confirmation: Notice the increasing bullish volume on the recent push higher. That suggests buyers are still in control, contradicting the bearish prediction. 4. Invalidation of Bearish Breakdown: Until the lower blue trendline is clearly broken with volume, the bearish target is speculative. Support is holding at 1.1610–1.1600 zone, which may become a launchpad for further gains.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
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by Trader_Lexio
EUR/USD Hits Weekly High as Ceasefire Weakens DollarEUR/USD climbed to a fresh weekly high near 1.1610 during late Asian trading on Tuesday, boosted by a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by President Donald Trump. The truce improved market risk appetite and dampened demand for traditional safe havens like the US Dollar. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped steeply from Monday’s two-week high of 99.42 to around 98.10. The dollar also came under pressure from shifting expectations around Fed policy. On Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman signaled support for a potential rate cut as early as the July meeting, citing rising concerns over the labor market. “We should put more weight on downside risks to the job market,” she stated, adding that it's time to consider adjusting the policy rate. Her dovish tone nudged up expectations for a July rate cut, with CME FedWatch data showing the probability rising from 14.5% on Friday to 22.7%. In the Eurozone, ECB officials expressed concerns over the region’s economic outlook, particularly considering new US tariff policies. President Christine Lagarde, in remarks to the European Parliament, warned that inflation staying near the 2% target is uncertain and noted that survey data points to “some weaker prospects for economic activity in the near term.” She added that risks to growth remain “tilted to the downside.” Resistance is located at 1.1630, while support is seen at 1.1530.
by ChartMage
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data: US: Consumer confidence (June) Regional business activity from Philadelphia Fed and Richmond Fed House prices (April, FHFA) Q1 current account balance Germany: Ifo business sentiment survey (June) Canada: Consumer price inflation (May) Central Bank Activity: US Federal Reserve: Chair Powell testifies before Congress Other Fed officials (Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr) also speak European Central Bank (ECB): President Lagarde, Guindos, and Lane give remarks Bank of England (BoE): Governor Bailey and other key members (Greene, Ramsden, Breeden) speak Corporate Earnings: Key results from FedEx and Carnival Government Bond Auctions: US Treasury sells 2-year notes Other Events: NATO Summit continues (ends June 25) China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets (through June 27) Summary: It’s a heavy day for central bank speeches, led by Fed Chair Powell. Markets will also be watching Canadian inflation and US confidence data for clues on growth and rate paths. The NATO summit and China’s NPC meeting add geopolitical weight, while FedEx earnings may provide insight into global demand trends. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
#AN010: De-Escalation, ECB, Oil Prices and more Hi, I’m Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today we’re going to take a look at this week’s news. Thank you all for the great number of readers I’m receiving these days. Don’t forget that by visiting my website, you can also connect with me on other platforms and you can also find exclusive Benefits for my readers. 🔶 Key Highlights of the Week ECB’s Villeroy Confirms Rate-Cut Bias Amid Energy Volatility Governor François Villeroy de Galhau signaled that the European Central Bank remains open to further rate cuts—even with recent oil-price volatility—due to a strong euro and controlled inflation Oil Prices Surge—and Recede—on Iran Tensions and Ceasefire News U.S. strikes on Iran triggered at 5–7% spike in crude, pushing Brent above $77/barrel, before plummeting as ceasefire sentiment returned Dovish Shift at the Fed Multiple Fed officials (Bowman, Waller, Goolsbee) openly support a July rate cut, shifting dollar sentiment Emerging-Market Pressure: Indian Rupee in Focus Rising oil costs and geopolitical instability weigh on the INR, prompting potential RBI intervention Geopolitical De-escalation Eases Market Risk A U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp retreat in oil, boosted equities globally, and weakened safe-haven USD and gold -Forex Market Reactions: What Traders Need to Know EUR/USD: Rate-cut window in Europe: The ECB's dovish tone softens EUR's upside, while oil volatility now has less impact. USD weakness: Dovish Fed commentary has dented dollar strength Key chart signals: A sustained break below 1.0670 could open further downside toward 1.0600–1.0535. USD/JPY: Choppy action off failed breakouts near 148.00—watch for JPY resilience risk amid risk-off repricing AUD/USD & Other Emerging Currencies: Oil-driven FX pressure affecting the AUD—tracked via crude sensitivity. The Indian rupee weakness hints at broader emerging-market stress in risk-sensitive currencies 🛠️ Strategy & Outlook for Traders Theme Implication for FX Fed dovishness Dollar softness → supports EUR, JPY, EM currencies ECB policy flexibility Cap on EUR gains → neutral bias until data confirms Oil volatility Medium-term risk for AUD, CAD, NOK, RUB Geopolitical calm Risk-on sentiment → pressure on safe-haven USD & JPY 🎯 Trade Setups: EUR/USD: Short on fall below 1.0670—target 1.0600–1.0535; stop above 1.0760. AUD/USD: Short biased if oil sustains above $75; aligned with broader commodity-driven themes. USD/JPY: Watch for continuation short if risk appetite returns; else, trade reversals at 148.00 key.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EURUSD Trading Strategy for the WeekEURUSD is reacting at the support zone of 1.14500. This is an important support zone that helps EURUSD continue to maintain its upward momentum. The uptrend in the h4 time frame is still strong and heading towards the peak of 1.161. Below the support of 1.145 will be the 1.138 zone. When this 1.138 zone is broken, it confirms that a Downtrend is established. The possibility of breaking this zone is not high, so it is still possible to set BUY signals around these support zones. On the other hand, 1.153 is an important resistance zone in the near future where the pair will have a price reaction before finding the peak of last week. Support: 1.13800 Resistance: 1.16000 Break out: 1.14600-1.15300 Recommended good trading strategy: Trade when price confirms in Break out zone. BUY 1.13800-1.13600 Stoploss 1.13300 SELL 1.16000-1.16200 Stoploss 1.16500
by VHT_Trader
Euro – Eyes 1.15400, Awaits Powell's ToneEuro has just filled a GAP and rebounded strongly from the FVG zone around 1.14500. It is now approaching the 1.15400 resistance area, where a descending trendline intersects with a supply FVG. The bullish momentum remains intact within the short-term correction channel, but a rejection at this level could trigger a pullback. On the news front, US Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify this week. If he adopts a dovish tone, the USD may weaken further, potentially giving EURUSD the push it needs to break through resistance. Strategy: Wait for a clear breakout above 1.15400 to confirm further upside. If rejected, watch the 1.14000 zone as a key support.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
Euro Poised for Upside: Will $1.18 Be the Next Key Level?Targets: - T1 = $1.17075 - T2 = $1.18075 Stop Levels: - S1 = $1.14075 - S2 = $1.13075 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Euro. **Key Insights:** The Euro is currently positioned for potential upside, supported by the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious approach to monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s statements regarding inflation targeting have reinforced confidence in the currency, creating a stable outlook amidst broader global uncertainty. Additionally, improvements in European economic data—particularly stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI figures—have increased bullish sentiment among professional traders. Forex traders are closely watching upcoming inflation reports and employment statistics for additional confirmation of a continued uptrend. Technical indicators, such as rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels and bullish moving average crossovers, suggest further upside momentum. Breakouts above psychological levels, such as $1.17000, could drive stronger buying activity and potentially pave the way for the Euro to test higher resistance levels. **Recent Performance:** The Euro has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, hovering around the $1.15075 mark. Despite fluctuations due to mixed signals from equity and bond markets, the Euro has benefited from safe-haven inflows as geopolitical tensions brew in other parts of the world. Additionally, its stability has kept it among the top-performing currencies within the G10 forex universe. **Expert Analysis:** Forex market analysts are broadly in agreement about the potential near-term strength of the Euro. The ECB’s patient approach to monetary tightening is seen as providing a consistent support mechanism for the currency. Furthermore, the Euro has gained traction against traditionally weaker currencies such as the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, presenting further arbitrage opportunities for traders. Technicians point to the importance of $1.17000 as a crucial level to test before further gains can be realized. A confirmed breakout could lead to extended upside, potentially reaching $1.18 or more. However, downside risks remain, especially if the Dollar strengthens unexpectedly due to hawkish Federal Reserve policy or significant geopolitical escalations. **News Impact:** Recent news surrounding improved trade agreements between the UK and Europe has reduced uncertainty and supported the Euro as bullish sentiment grows. However, traders should remain cautious of geopolitical risks, including recent tensions in the Middle East, which could create safe-haven flows into other currencies like the Swiss Franc or US Dollar. Regulatory challenges facing US technology firms in Europe are also shaping broader equity movements that could indirectly influence the Euro's performance. **Trading Recommendation:** Based on bullish sentiment from professional traders, improved technical metrics, and the ECB’s supportive policies, we recommend a LONG position on Euro. The current price action suggests the probability of an upside breakout, with targets of $1.17 and $1.18 offering potential rewards. Ensure stops are placed thoughtfully within the levels outlined to mitigate risks from broader market volatility. This trade provides a promising opportunity to capitalize on the Euro’s relative strength.
Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading