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EUR/USD_TOM - EUR/USD

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#EURUSD 4HEURUSD 4-Hour Analysis The EURUSD pair is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is typically a bearish reversal signal. However, in this case, the price action suggests a potential invalidation of the pattern, favoring a bullish breakout scenario. If the neckline resistance is broken, it could provide a buy opportunity. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Head and Shoulders (Potential Breakout) Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position upon a confirmed breakout above the neckline resistance with strong bullish momentum. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation such as a breakout candlestick with increased volume or indicators like MACD signaling upward momentum. Proper risk management is crucial, with stop-loss orders placed below the neckline and profit targets set at the next resistance levels.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
US Tariffs: Deflationary Risk for Europe?EURUSD faces a crucial week, marked by key economic events and trade tensions. As US protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump could intensify deflationary pressures in Europe. Impact of U.S. tariffs While tariffs are often associated with inflation, in Europe they could have the opposite effect due to limited exposure to U.S. imports and their indirect impact on growth and employment. U.S. imports account for only 10% of the total in the Eurozone, with consumer goods barely reaching 6%, limiting the direct impact on prices. However, a 10% across-the-board tariff could reduce economic growth in the Eurozone by 0.3%, affecting employment and wages in key sectors such as manufacturing. On the export side, lower demand for European goods from the U.S. and China could deepen economic problems, although the eurozone previously benefited from the reorientation of global trade. In addition, previous trade disputes showed that a surge in Chinese imports into Europe contributed to disinflationary pressures. ECB meeting this Thursday The European Central Bank (ECB) will address a complicated environment of high uncertainty this Thursday, with trade tensions and signs of economic weakness. While no rate changes are expected, statements on the impact of trade tensions and the growth outlook will be crucial in determining the direction of the euro, the tone of the statements will be key to market expectations. A more cautious stance could weaken the euro, while any hint of optimism could give the currency a slight respite. Monetary policy could remain accommodative if economic projections continue to deteriorate. German trade balance on Friday Friday's release of Germany's trade balance will offer a signal on the health of Europe's economic engine. A larger surplus could support the euro, but an unexpected deficit, combined with tariff concerns, would reinforce negative sentiment about the eurozone economy. Between trade tensions and macroeconomic data, EUR/USD could experience high volatility this week, reflecting growing concerns about the European economic outlook. Progress on the Mercosur-EU agreement This weekend, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, concluded a free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The first attempt was formally launched in 1999, in negotiations that began as part of a broader cooperation framework established in 1995 (Framework Agreement on Interregional Cooperation). The agreement did not close despite looking promising on its last occasion as it faced multiple interruptions over the years due to disagreements in key areas such as agricultural products, industrial market access, environmental rules and labor rights. After intermittent negotiations, a preliminary agreement was announced in 2019, although its implementation is still pending due to debates over environmental issues. This time the agreement has generated very explosive messages from the Spanish agricultural camp and full opposition from Emmanuel Macron, the current main drivers being Germany and Spain. If finalized, it could boost trade and offer economic respite to both regions. A favorable agreement would strengthen European exports to Latin America, offsetting some of the negative effects of trade tensions with the US. Technical Aspect Looking at the 1H. chart, since December 9-10 the market has made a strong upward price recovery rally, with very high trading volume on the current trading day to the upside. The directionality of the euro seems to be trying to recover 1.05996 with the current price at 1.05641. The moving average is determining a possible opening in an upward direction, despite the checkpoint being around 1.05241. RSI is currently in its middle zone at 52.77%. In this environment full of uncertainties, EURUSD could experience high volatility, reflecting the interplay between trade challenges, ECB decisions and the potential breakthrough in the Mercosur-EU treaty. Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
by ActivTrades
EURUSDKey Observations: Support and Resistance Zones: There is a clearly established support zone around 1.0500, which coincides with prior lows and strong buying activity. Resistance levels are seen around 1.0600 (immediate resistance) and higher at 1.0700 if bullish momentum builds. Trend Analysis: The daily chart indicates a downtrend, but recent consolidation around the 1.0500 zone suggests potential for a reversal or a corrective move upward. On lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h), there is consolidation within the range of 1.0500-1.0550. Indicators: RSI: RSI levels below 40 indicate bearish pressure, but potential divergence could suggest an upcoming bullish move. MACD: The MACD shows minimal momentum, indicating a consolidation phase. Moving Averages: The price is below the 200 EMA on higher timeframes, reinforcing the bearish structure. On shorter timeframes, the 50 EMA and 200 EMA are nearing a crossover, which could hint at bullish momentum in the short term. Strategy and Recommendations: Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Entry: Consider buying if the price breaks above 1.0550 with strong volume. Targets: Target 1: 1.0600 (immediate resistance). Target 2: 1.0700 (next resistance zone if momentum sustains). Stop Loss: Below 1.0480 to account for potential fakeouts. Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Entry: Sell if the price decisively breaks below 1.0500 with increased volume. Targets: Target 1: 1.0450 (next support level). Target 2: 1.0400 (key psychological level). Stop Loss: Above 1.0550 to protect against reversals. Recommended Approach: Short-Term Traders: Focus on breakouts above 1.0550 or below 1.0500 for clear momentum trades. Swing Traders: Await confirmation on daily candles around the 1.0500 support zone to determine if a reversal or continuation occurs. Risk Management: Always ensure a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 and limit exposure to avoid over-leverage in volatile conditions.
by DerrickJerry
#EURUSD - 09122024I was more bearish EURUSD last week towards the end of the week. On Friday it made a new high before coming down. Price action points to the downside on daily, though on weekly it is a doji, which IMO could indicate just a consolidation after the previous up move. I will be looking for downside before any bullish confirmation (that is, could see buyers come in later in the week). For today, a re-test and rejection off the PZ could see a move lower to target 1.0515 and 1.0490.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points: - The Federal Reserve enters its blackout period. - Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November from 6.5% in the previous month, raising expectations for a 50bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada. - U.S. nonfarm payrolls for November came in at 227,000, surpassing the market forecast of 200,000. The unemployment rate matched expectations at 4.2% but increased from the prior month. - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, stated that the Fed is ready to raise rates again if inflation rises. - The Swiss National Bank sees mixed expectations of a 25bp or 50bp rate cut, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold. Major Economic Indicators: - December 10: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Germany’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) - December 11: U.S. November CPI, Bank of Canada rate decision - December 12: European Central Bank rate decision, U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI) - December 13: UK October GDP EUR/USD Chart Analysis: EUR/USD climbed to the 1.06000 level but faced resistance and has slightly pulled back. Failure to break through the resistance level suggests a high likelihood of retreating to the 1.04500 level. For this week, the short-term outlook is bearish, but we will adjust our strategy based on the interest rate decisions from major economies.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Idea on a chartEuro was off fractionally this week with EUR/USD defending a rebound off yearly trend support. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the focus into December is on this recovery with the bulls eyeing a critical pivot zone just higher. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart. In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that, “A three-week plunge takes EUR/USD into downtrend support and a major pivot zone- risk for downside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of Euro short-exposure / lower protective stops
by EZIO-FX
EURUSD 8/12/24This week, with Euros to the U.S. dollar, we’ve seen price pull back to the highest area highlighted in last week’s markup. It took out the liquidity high we placed below it while also mitigating some of our longer-term points of liquidity. We’ve now identified several points of liquidity lower down, one being at the base of the last upward move. This move originated from the area we highlighted as a potential zone for bullish price action. Despite the significant upward movement, our higher time frame bias maintains a bearish narrative, indicating that money is still flowing out of this market, pushing prices lower. As shown on the chart with the indicator applied, we are now on the 4-hour timeframe. A "money-out" area has been formed, and we are watching for price action to follow this trend, targeting the liquid lows we have marked. This setup points to a sell opportunity at the start of this market session, with the expectation that price will continue to move bearish throughout the week. Stick to your risk and follow your trading plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
Weekly Analysis - EUR/USD"On Monthly: It seems ZigZag bouncing between 1.1200 and 1.0500 Psychological Support & Resistant are getting over and moving down. If FED doesn't lower the interest rate this month, the Bearish move will continue through January due to Trump presidency and change in GOV. All three EMA, 200, 50 and 20 are nicely Bearish. It trying to break through 1.0500 and keep the Bearish momentum. oppositely, it may create another Morning Star formation. -- On Weekly: It broke through Daily Bullish trendline and broke through 1.0500 Historical and Psychological number and it's bouncing up to most likely test the trend line again for potentially further Bearish move. All three EMA 200, 50 and 20 are Bearish as well. It seems price is racing up to trendline and/or 1.08000 Resistant, if we consider last week Doji a Bullish move. --On Daily: As I predicted last week, the formation for Inverted head & Shoulders for reversing Bearish move for a while. Although, all three EMA 200, 50 and 20 are Bearish as of now. We have to see how long EMAs will hold Bearish status. The neck of this Inverted Head & Shoulders is holding at 1.0600. -- On Hourly: It seems it going to touch 1.0600one more time. If it breaks through and confirms, Bullish move will get started. All three EMA's are below the price and Bullish. "
Long
by Ha-Lion
EURUSDWhen analyzing EUR/USD on the daily timeframe, we can identify a strong demand zone that has remained intact. Each time price taps into this zone, it drives to the upside. To gain insight into the internal price action, I’ve moved to the lower timeframe, where we’ve observed a bounce off the higher timeframe demand zone, along with a change of character. This shift indicates that buyers have stepped into the market, and price has since been printing higher highs. With this bullish momentum, some inefficiency has been left in the market. Below this inefficiency lies a demand zone that swept the previous lows and broke structure, confirming its validity. Above the inefficiency, we can see resting liquidity that needs to be swept. I’m waiting for price to take out this liquidity, fill the inefficiency, and then push to the upside, continuing the overall bullish trend. Additionally, using our Fibonacci tool, we are in the golden zone for entries, which also aligns with a discounted zone, further supporting our long bias.
Long
by EzratradesFX
EUR/USD short from 1.05993With the extreme bullish price movement on the dollar and the continual downtrend on the HTF of the Euro we can expect price to continue in its downward move. I can expect to see market open and Asian session consolidation before price pushes up taking the Asian session liquidity and reacting from my LTF zone to continue in its downtrend. This is further supported by the fact we see a large wick to the upside before seeing a strong bearish candle suggesting price strength is to the downside. It is also possible price could push up slightly further as we are beginning to see some HH and HL forming on the LTF signifying a retracement to collect more liquidity before price continues in its downtrend from a 6H supply above.
Short
by JamelCapital
EUR/USD / less Bearish, more Bullish ?!? Hello traders ,what do you think about EUR/USD? There are two main options for trading, I personally expect the price to rise at least to the specified level 1.080. The other option is that the upward correction at 4h is over and we look for continuation of the bearish movement with the aim of a new monthly LL in the direction of 1.02 and below. We've had two good bullish weeks, I think an upside is the more likely development scenario. If you think this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.
by PpetroeR