EURUSD Coiling pattern, energy build up support at 1.1520EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Trend Overview:
EUR/USD continues to exhibit bullish price action, supported by a rising trend structure. The recent intraday movement shows signs of sideways consolidation, suggesting a potential continuation pattern rather than reversal.
Key Support Level:
1.1520 – Marks the lower boundary of the previous consolidation range and serves as a critical pivot for directional bias.
Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias):
A corrective pullback into the 1.1520 zone followed by a bullish reversal would confirm continued upward momentum.
Upside targets include:
1.1664 – Near-term resistance.
1.1723 – Mid-term target.
1.1780 – Long-term resistance aligned with prior highs.
Bearish Scenario (Invalidation):
A decisive break and daily close below 1.1520 would invalidate the current bullish outlook.
This would signal a shift toward a deeper correction, targeting:
1.1460 – Initial retracement level.
1.1345 – Major support zone on a broader timeframe.
Conclusion:
The broader trend in EUR/USD remains bullish, with the 1.1520 level acting as a key support threshold. A bounce from this level would support continued upside movement toward 1.1780. However, a confirmed break below 1.1520 would shift momentum to the downside and expose the pair to a deeper retracement.
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EURUSD_TOM trade ideas
The Day Ahead Tuesday, June 17 – Market Summary (Key Data & Events)
U.S. Focus:
Retail Sales (May) – Key consumer demand gauge; strong data may lift USD and yields.
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization (May) – Insight into manufacturing health; impacts USD, rates.
Import/Export Price Index (May) – Inflation clues; affects Fed expectations.
NAHB Housing Index (June) – Early read on housing sentiment.
NY Fed Services Index, Business Inventories (April) – Lower-tier data.
5-Year TIPS Auction – Watch for inflation expectations via demand.
Global Data:
Germany & Eurozone ZEW Surveys (June) – Investor sentiment; EUR-sensitive.
Canada International Securities Transactions (April) – Tracks foreign capital flows; affects CAD.
Central Banks:
BoJ Decision – High impact for JPY, JGBs, and Nikkei; watch policy tone.
ECB Speakers (Villeroy, Centeno) – May guide rate expectations and EUR.
Trading Relevance:
FX: USD, JPY, EUR in focus.
Equities: Retail data, BoJ stance may drive risk appetite.
Rates: Data-heavy day for yields; TIPS auction key for inflation outlook.
Commodities: Industrial activity and prices affect demand/inflation views.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EUR/USD Poised for a Breakout? Watch 1.1510 CloselyEUR/USD is currently consolidating around the 1.1510 support zone after a mild pullback from the descending trendline. Price structure remains bullish, with a wedge pattern forming — signaling that a breakout could be imminent.
On the news front, expectations that the Fed may soon begin cutting rates — following a series of weak U.S. economic data — are weighing on the U.S. dollar. At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions are shifting market sentiment back toward risk assets.
If the 1.1510 support level holds firm, EUR/USD may stage a strong rebound to resume its upward momentum.
EUR/USD) back to bearish Trand Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of EUR/USD pair on the 2-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the idea behind the analysis:
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Trading Idea Summary: EUR/USD Bearish Reversal Setup
1. Rejection at Resistance Zone
Resistance Level (~1.1600): Price has tested this level twice (red arrows) and faced strong rejection, suggesting it’s a firm supply zone.
This double top near resistance signals potential downside pressure.
2. Bearish Market Structure
Price action shows a break in short-term bullish momentum.
Bearish trend arrows and structure indicate expected continuation to the downside.
3. EMA Resistance
The 200 EMA (blue line) at 1.14356 is above the key support zone, acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
4. Target Levels
First Target: 1.13694 (Key Support Level)
Previous structure zone with strong historical price reaction.
Final Target: 1.12025 (Major Support Zone)
Larger demand area where buyers previously stepped in.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion
This analysis suggests a potential short setup with confirmations from:
Repeated resistance rejection
Bearish price structure and trend arrows
EMA as added confluence
Clear downside targets: 1.13694, then 1.12025
> Bearish bias remains valid unless price reclaims and closes above the resistance zone (~1.1600).
pelas support boost 🚀 this analysis)
EURUSD – Healthy pullback within a strong uptrendEURUSD is undergoing a temporary correction after a strong bullish move, but the pair remains above key technical support levels such as the EMA34 and the ascending trendline. The 1.15070 zone now acts as a potential buy area—where demand may return if confirmation signals appear.
Market sentiment is leaning toward the expectation that the Fed may cut interest rates soon due to weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, which has weighed on the USD and indirectly supported the euro. Meanwhile, the ECB continues to maintain a stable policy stance, further reinforcing the current bullish trend.
If the price holds above the green support zone, the next target could be around 1.15940. If this support breaks, traders should watch price behavior at the trendline before making the next trading decision.
EUR/USD - Potential Targets ( Correction ? )Dear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
Key Confluence - NOW SUPPORT @ 1.15700
Potential correction below key support
"SHORT" Targets:
1] 1.15130
2] 1.14900
3] 1.14700
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
EUR/USD – 30m | Smart Money long SetupPair: EUR/USD
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Minutes
🔹 Confluence Strategy: Elliott Wave + Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
🔹 Pattern: Ending Triangle (Wave e) + CHoCH + BOS
🔹 Published on: June 17, 2025
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🧠 Analysis Summary:
1. Wave (e) of triangle nearly complete — signs of liquidity grab at the low.
2. CHoCH formed after internal structure break – a bullish signal.
3. Demand zone successfully mitigated, showing buyer reaction.
4. BOS confirms intent to shift bullish structure.
5. Clear imbalance/fair value gap filled before move.
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🎯 Next Move Projection:
Entry Zone: 1.1562–1.1565 (Demand Area)
Target: 1.1596–1.1600 (Supply Zone Resistance)
Invalidation: Clean break below 1.1555 low (demand fails)
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📌 Trade Bias:
✔️ Bullish — Expecting price to tap into supply zone and potentially reverse.
⚠️ Monitor lower timeframes (5m–15m) for rejection signs near 1.1600.
EUR/USD Triangle Pattern – 1H Timeframe
📊 EUR/USD Triangle Pattern – 1H Timeframe
🕐 Date: 17 June 2025
📌 Chart by: GreenfireForex
🔷 Pattern: Contracting Triangle (ABCDE)
🔍 Context: Forming inside Wave (4) – possible breakout before Wave (5)
📈 Upside Potential: Break above triangle → target near 1.16500+
📉 Downside Risk: If fails to break up → revisit demand zone around 1.15000
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🔮 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout:
Breaks above wave (e)
Clean rally toward target zone
Ideal for a long setup with tight SL
❌ Bearish Fakeout:
Rejection from triangle resistance
Falls back into demand zone
Look for reversal or retest opportunities
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🎯 Strategy Tips:
Wait for a breakout candle
Use SL outside triangle zone
Entry based on confirmation – avoid early trades
💬 Let’s discuss live market reaction as price nears triangle edge. Stay ready .
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅15' order block
✅4 hour order block identified
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Market Review ( DXY & GOLD & EQUITIES & CURRENCIES ) 2025-06-17DXY:
Prediction: Continued bearish pressure, targeting your swing target of 95.00. The fundamental backdrop of potential Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weighing on safe-haven demand for the dollar supports this outlook.
Recommendation: SELL on rallies. Traders should look for opportunities to short the DXY, utilizing resistance levels around 98.50-99.00 for entry. Long-term investors should consider reducing USD exposure in their portfolios.
GOLD:
Prediction: Strong bullish momentum to continue, with a high probability of reaching and exceeding your swing target of 3600. The confluence of safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar provides a powerful tailwind.
Recommendation: BUY on dips. Swing traders can look for pullbacks to key support levels for entry, while long-term investors should consider accumulating gold as a hedge against market volatility and currency depreciation.
EURUSD awaits upcoming newsYesterday, EURUSD climbed back above 1,1600, testing the previous high.
Tomorrow, the market is anticipating the FED’s interest rate decision.
For now, the trend remains clear, with expectations of increased volatility.
Keep an eye out for a higher low and a breakout above the previous high.
EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.1570, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 38.2% Fib retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.1528, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1609, a multi-swing high resistance.
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EUR/USD Slips — Setup or Selloff?EUR/USD kicked off the week under pressure, hovering near 1.1540 during the Asian session. The drop comes as the U.S. dollar regains strength, driven by safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In times like these, the greenback shines — and riskier currencies like the euro naturally take a hit. If the situation escalates further, the pair could extend its decline in the near term.
But let’s flip the perspective: while some see risk, others see opportunity. This dip might just be the pullback that buyers have been waiting for — especially if the fundamentals shift or tensions ease. Timing, as always, is everything.
EURUSD Long Setup – Bullish Rejection from Demand ZoneEURUSD remains supported by strong eurozone fundamentals and broad USD softness. The pair has retraced into a key demand zone around 1.1490 and is showing signs of bullish rejection. With the Fed likely to pause further rate hikes and the ECB maintaining a steady tone, the bias favors further upside toward recent highs.
⚠️ Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran conflict) have introduced mild safe haven demand, but so far the USD has underperformed versus the euro, suggesting EUR remains relatively insulated.
Watch for confirmation and entries within the blue demand box.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price retraced to a well-defined 1H demand zone between 1.1490–1.1500.
Setup: Anticipating a bounce from the demand zone targeting the recent high near 1.1620–1.1630.
Entry Zone: 1.1490–1.1500 (bullish reaction area)
Target: 1.1620–1.1630 (previous supply zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.1439 (recent swing low)
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.5
🧠 Fundamental Context (as of June 16):
EUR Bias: Bullish – ECB has paused cuts; euro is resilient despite geopolitical headwinds.
USD Bias: Bearish – Fed is on pause; soft inflation data and geopolitical risks weigh on dollar strength.
Key Drivers:
Fed dovish tone (FOMC pause, lower CPI)
Strong EU resilience despite global tensions
CHF and JPY attracting safe haven flows over USD
📅 Key Events to Watch:
US Core PCE (next major inflation readout)
FOMC commentary and Fed speakers
Eurozone CPI and sentiment data
Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation.
The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets)
On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth.
Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did.
From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants.
However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other.
all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers!
Chart
White dashed line - 2008 Resistance
Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily)
Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP