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EUR/USD_TOM - EUR/USD

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EURUSD_TOM trade ideas

EURUSD Once in a year buy opportunity about to run out.Last week (November 25, see chart below) we gave an ultimate buy call on the EURUSD pair as the price pierced through the 1.5 year Channel Down and immediately rebounded: As you can see, that was the absolute bottom of the pattern, its technical Lower Low, which happened last time more than 1 year ago, on October 03 2023. The 1-week rally that followed is on a pull-back today as the new week opened and based on the previous two Lower Lows, this might be the final one, i.e. the last buy opportunity we will get before multi-week rally. More specifically and as far as the October 2023 bottom is concerned, we are on the 1W RSI rebound similar to the week of October 23 2023. At the same time, this matches being on the 1W MACD's 2nd straight pink histogram bar. This indicates that this could be the last red week before the rally. Our Target remains intact at 1.08765, exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the November 2023 Fib test). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
DXY Reversal? H&S Pattern FormingThe US dollar, after an 8-week rally, finally showed signs of weakness last week. This correction appears to be primarily technical, driven by profit-taking and month-end flows, rather than any significant shift in macroeconomic fundamentals. Interestingly, this aligns with historical trends, as the dollar has experienced a downside in December 68% of the time over the past 50 years. From a technical perspective, the dollar index encountered resistance around 108, opening the door for a potential decline. Support levels to watch include 105.50 and potentially 104.50. This week’s focus will be on US labor market data, which could further influence the dollar’s trajectory. US Economic Data in Focus Market participants will be closely watching several key data releases this week. Job Openings are expected to show a slight improvement from the previous reading, potentially indicating a resilient labor market. However, the ADP Employment Change is forecast to soften, suggesting a potential slowdown in private sector job creation. Adding to the potential for a weaker dollar, Unemployment Claims are expected to tick slightly higher. Nonfarm Payrolls are anticipated to show an increase in jobs added, but it’s important to consider the impact of previous strikes and hurricane effects on the last reading. The Unemployment Rate is projected to worsen slightly, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to cool down, which could alleviate some inflationary pressures. If this week’s labor market data confirms the anticipated softening trend, it could provide further impetus for dollar selling, reinforcing the technical correction and seasonal factors. This potential weakness in the dollar could create opportunities in other currency pairs. Euro and British Pound: Potential for Gains The Euro, for instance, appears poised for a rebound against the dollar, with a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. A break above 1.06 could pave the way for a move towards 1.08. Similarly, GBP/USD also shows signs of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Breaking above the 1.2750 psychological level could lead to further gains towards 1.2850. These potential moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD are primarily driven by technical factors and the anticipated dollar weakness. However, it’s crucial to monitor upcoming economic data releases from the Eurozone and the UK, as any surprises could impact these projections. For example, the Eurozone will release its estimated GDP figures this week, which could influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook. In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor’s speech could provide insights into the BoE’s thinking on interest rates and the UK economy. Australian and Canadian Dollars: Volatility Expected Volatility is also expected for both the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar this week, with key economic data releases on the horizon. Australia’s retail sales and GDP figures will be closely watched. Strong data could support the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance and potentially boost the Australian dollar, especially against a weakening US dollar. A break above the key trend line resistance could target 0.6600 and potentially 0.6700. On the other hand, Canada’s labor market data will be in focus. Weaker-than-expected data could lead to a pullback in USD/CAD, while stronger data might support further gains towards the 1.3900-1.3950 resistance zone. It’s worth noting that the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been more dovish than other major central banks, with inflation cooling and a general slowdown in the Canadian economy. This could influence the Canadian dollar’s performance in the coming weeks. *This is a market analysis, not trading advice. Trade responsibly and do your own research.
by E8Markets
EurUsd- Buy under 1.05 In last week's analysis, I mentioned that EUR/USD could reverse to the upside, with the 1.0330 zone likely marking a short-term bottom. As anticipated, the pair has climbed back above the 1.05 support level, indicating a false breakout. I still expect this correction to extend further, with the pair potentially reaching the 1.0670 resistance level. In conclusion, any dips below 1.05 should be seen as buying opportunities, targeting the aforementioned resistance level.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
4
EURUSD H1 02/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04850 OR BUY above 1.05750Overview of EUR/USD Price Action The EUR/USD pair is trading in a consolidation zone between 1.04950 (support) and 1.05250 (resistance), as seen on the H1 chart. Momentum indicators like the RSI (currently around 30-40 on H1) and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the pair is oversold but lacks a clear directional trend. The MACD shows bearish momentum weakening, indicating potential for a reversal if resistance is broken, while the Average True Range (ATR) indicates low volatility. This creates the perfect scenario for breakout trades in both directions, depending on whether the market breaches the consolidation zone. Buy Stop Setup: Bullish Breakout Case Resistance Level at 1.05250: This zone has acted as a ceiling for the pair during the consolidation phase. A break above this level signals renewed buying pressure. Entry Level: Placing the Buy Stop at 1.05300, slightly above the resistance, ensures confirmation of a bullish breakout. Take-Profit Target: The next key level is around 1.05750, derived from: The previous monthly high at 1.05790. Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the previous bearish leg. Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05100, just below the breakout point, protects against false breakouts. Rationale for a Buy Trade: A breach above 1.05250 will invalidate the current bearish trend on H1 and confirm short-term bullish momentum. This move aligns with possible USD weakness in the upcoming sessions due to softening fundamentals (e.g., dovish Fed sentiment or weaker US data, if relevant). Sell Stop Setup: Bearish Breakout Case Support Level at 1.04950: This level has provided solid support for the pair recently. A breakdown below this level signals bearish continuation. Entry Level: Placing the Sell Stop at 1.04850, slightly below support, ensures entry only after confirmation of bearish pressure. Take-Profit Target: The next target is around 1.04450, derived from: Fibonacci 161.8% extension of the recent correction. Psychological round number support at 1.04500. Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05050, just above the breakout level, limits risk exposure from potential pullbacks. Rationale for a Sell Trade: A breakdown below 1.04950 signals bearish continuation, possibly targeting the lows seen earlier in November. This move aligns with recent USD strength and market sentiment favoring safe-haven currencies. Technical Indicators Supporting the Setup RSI: On both M30 and H1 timeframes, the RSI hovers near oversold levels, showing a lack of momentum but creating potential for a breakout in either direction. Stochastic Oscillator: Shows the market is at extremes, either overbought or oversold, adding further credence to the possibility of a directional move. MACD Divergence: The MACD histogram on H1 is attempting to flatten, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning and that price could either consolidate further or reverse to the upside. Ichimoku Cloud: The H1 chart shows price is trading below the cloud, indicating a bearish bias. However, price action is close to breaking out, supporting both trade scenarios. Market Sentiment & Fundamental Factors Dollar Index (DXY): A closely watched driver of EUR/USD, the DXY has been showing signs of indecision in recent sessions. Any weakening of the dollar could trigger the bullish breakout, while dollar strength supports the bearish case.
by napoleon182
Selling EURUSD classic break and retestHello traders lets dive into it: What we have here is a wonderful trend with more than 3 touches. we have again a level of resistance that was both support and resistance. We also have a divergence at with a tipple top. We can also identify that this is a clear downtrend when we look at the 4H tf. The last and most important of all is the pivot point. All these factors has led me to believe that we will see the continuation of the downtrend. Flag breakout Support becomes resistance Trend continuation Divergence Pivot points
Short
by Linkhive001
EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Key Economic EventsThe EUR/USD pair began the week with notable selling pressure, trading near the 1.0500 level at the time of writing. The Asian session opened with a bearish gap that remains uncovered, with the pair declining by nearly 75 pips so far. Market participants are closely watching upcoming events, including a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) later today. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, the pair’s downward momentum aligns with earlier forecasts, suggesting a potential move toward the next demand zone around 1.0100 in the coming sessions. Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis Recent COT reports reveal that retail traders have increased long positions in the pair, while non-commercial entities remain bearish. This divergence highlights contrasting market expectations. A strong ISM Manufacturing PMI reading could amplify the pair’s downward trajectory, further pressuring the euro. As the market digests these developments, traders should remain cautious and adapt strategies based on upcoming economic data and central bank commentary. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EURUSD Bullish ? Monthly FVG Reversal Setup to the UpsideBreaking down the EUR/USD setup: Sell-Side Liquidity Raided: Price has effectively taken out the sell-side liquidity (SSL) levels at 1.060 and 1.04482, creating the conditions for a reversal. Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price has tapped into the monthly FVG and, more importantly, closed above it, signaling a possible bullish reversal. Higher Timeframe Bias: The monthly FVG holds strong as a bullish PD array. With price rejecting this range, there’s potential for a move toward the weekly buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 1.09387. Obstacles to Watch: Price is approaching two high-probability bearish FVGs on the weekly timeframe. These zones could cause re tracements back into the higher timeframe monthly FVG range. Monitor these areas closely for signs of price respecting or disregarding these bearish zones. Projection: If price continues to disrespect the bearish FVGs and maintains bullish displacement, a continuation toward 1.09387 is likely. Keep in mind retracements into the FVG range as healthy pullbacks during the move higher. Conclusion: This setup highlights a high-probability reversal scenario based on ICT concepts. However, as always, patience and confirmation are key—watch how price reacts to the bearish FVGs along the way. Disclaimer: Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and trade responsibly.
Long
by INSIDER_INTEL
How Traders Use Support and Resistance Indicators in TradingHow Traders Use Support and Resistance Indicators in Trading Strategies In the dynamic realm of trading, traders employ a variety of tools to navigate the continually evolving market landscape. Among these, support and resistance stand out as pivotal instruments, aiding traders in understanding important price levels on the charts. This article seeks to explore the indicators for support and resistance, offering insights into how they can be used to analyse market changes. Why Traders Use Support and Resistance Levels By effectively utilising support and resistance trading strategies, traders may enhance their decision-making processes. Here is why traders use these trading tools: - Entry Points: Support and resistance are crucial in identifying optimal entry points for trades. When the price approaches support, traders anticipate a potential upward reversal, providing a buying opportunity. Conversely, when the price nears a resistance, traders may look for signs of a downward reversal, indicating a potential selling point. - Trend Identification: The levels may aid in identifying market trends. When the price consistently finds support at higher levels, it indicates an uptrend. Conversely, if the price continually hits resistance at lower levels, it suggests a downtrend. When the price rebounds from horizontal levels, it indicates a consolidation range. - Stop Loss and Take Profit: Support and resistance help traders determine where to place their stop-loss and take-profit orders. By setting a stop-loss just below/above support/resistance, traders can potentially limit their losses if the price breaks below support/resistance. Similarly, placing a take-profit order just below/above a resistance/support may help secure potential returns before a market reversal. Trading Support and Resistance Levels Support and resistance act as psychological barriers where price action tends to stall, reverse, or accelerate. Here is how traders may trade with them: - Reversals: Trading reversals involve implementing the entry points concept mentioned above. For instance, if the price bounces off support, traders might enter a long position, expecting the market to rise. Conversely, if the price reverses at resistance, traders might enter a short position, anticipating a drop. - Breakouts: Breakout trading occurs when the price moves decisively through support or resistance. Traders enter trades in the direction of the breakout, expecting the market to continue moving the same way. A breakout above resistance may signal the start of an upward trend, while a breakdown below support could indicate the beginning of a downward trend. Support and Resistance Indicators Various technical indicators are used to identify the major support and resistance points. The TickTrader trading platform by FXOpen has all the major indicators needed to find these levels on a chart. Let us go through the most popular ones in detail and explain how traders can use them. Pivot Points Pivot points are a popular technical indicator used in trading to analyse market trends and strong reversal points across various financial instruments, such as stocks, currencies, and commodities. Although there are many types of pivot points, the main idea is that they are calculated using the high, low, and close prices of the previous trading period to determine key levels: the central pivot point, support, and resistance. How to Use Pivot Points Traders may use the pivot points for the following: 1. Breakout Trading: A bullish breakout involves entering a buy trade when the price breaks above the pivot point (P) or the first resistance (R1) and closes above it, targeting the next resistance (R2). Conversely, a bearish breakout involves entering a sell trade when the price breaks below the pivot point (P) or the first support (S1) and closes below it, targeting the next support (S2). 2. Reversal Trading: A bullish reversal strategy involves entering a buy trade when the price stalls above S1 or S2 without breaking below it, with the pivot point as the first target. Similarly, a bearish reversal strategy involves entering a sell trade when the price stalls below R1 or R2 without breaking above it, targeting the P level. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci retracements are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, used by traders to identify potential support and resistance points. The Fibonacci sequence starts at 0 and 1, with each subsequent number being the sum of the previous two. Key ratios derived from this sequence, such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, are used to determine key market points. How to Use Fibonacci Retracements These are the most common ways to use the Fibonacci retracements: - Trend Continuation: In trending markets, Fibonacci retracements are essential for identifying potential support and resistance points. In an uptrend, the market often pulls back to the 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% level before continuing its upward movement, with these points acting as support. Conversely, in a downtrend, the market typically retraces to these same levels before resuming its downward trajectory, where they serve as resistance. - Reversals: Traders combine Fibonacci retracements with other technical analysis tools like candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer and shooting star) and chart patterns (e.g., triangles and wedges) for additional confirmation. You may monitor how the price reacts at the Fibonacci retracements. If it closes through the Fibs cleanly, it's less likely to reverse. If it shows signs of rejection (e.g., long wicks), the level is more likely to hold. Moving Average Moving averages (MAs) are some of the commonly used indicators. They have many use cases, including identifying support and resistance points. MAs calculate an asset's average price over a specified period, continuously updating and recalculating as new data points become available. This allows them to smooth market fluctuations. Also, the MA is a lagging indicator, which allows it to provide insights into trend strength. How to Use Moving Averages Moving averages are versatile tools and can be used in various ways to potentially enhance trading strategies. - Support and Resistance: The MA acts as a dynamic support/resistance based on the price position relative to it. Traders consider it support if the price is below it and resistance if the price is above it. - Crossovers: Crossovers between two MAs with different periods can help traders strengthen the signals of the support/resistance levels as they reflect changes in market sentiment and potential trend reversals. Donchian Channel The Donchian Channel indicator is a straightforward yet powerful tool for traders. It consists of three lines on a chart: an upper boundary (highest high over N periods), a lower boundary (lowest low over N periods), and a midpoint line ((Upper Boundary + Lower Boundary) / 2). Typically set to 20 periods by default, N can be adjusted to increase responsiveness or reduce noise based on market conditions. How to Use the Donchian Channel Traders may use the indicator as follows: 1. Trading Breakouts: Upper and lower boundaries serve as support and resistance. Traders look for the price breaking above the middle line to open buy trades and close them near the upper boundary and vice versa. 2. Identifying Reversals: Traders may close long positions near upper boundaries and short trades near lower boundaries before the market reverses. Multiple touches increase the strength of support and resistance. Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a middle band (typically a 20-period simple moving average), an upper band (20-period simple moving average + (20-period standard deviation of price * 2)), and a lower band (20-period simple moving average - (20-period standard deviation of price * 2)). These bands adjust based on market volatility, expanding during periods of high volatility periods and contracting during periods of low volatility. How to Use Bollinger Bands Traders may use the Bollinger Bands to determine entry and exit points as upper and lower bands serve as support and resistance: - Trend Trading: Traders can buy near the lower band in an uptrend and sell near the upper band in a downtrend. - Range Trading: Traders look for buy signals near the lower band and sell signals near the upper band when the market consolidates within a narrow range. Final Thoughts Incorporating support and resistance analysis alongside fundamental analysis is crucial for a well-rounded market perspective. Remember, trading carries inherent risks, so it's vital to employ effective risk management strategies. As you refine your analytical approach and gain confidence in your trading abilities, consider leveraging your strategy across 600+ instruments by opening an FXOpen account. FAQ What Is the Support and Resistance Concept in Forex? Support and resistance in forex refer to levels where a currency pair often encounters barriers to moving lower (support) or higher (resistance). These are crucial for traders in making decisions about entering or exiting the market. How Can I Find Support and Resistance? To find support and resistance, traders analyse historical data. They look for areas where the price repeatedly reversed or stalled, often using tools like trendlines, pivot points, and moving averages. How Can I Identify Strong Support and Resistance? Strong support and resistance are identified by multiple price bounces or reversals occurring at the same level over time. The more times the market has reacted at a particular level, the stronger that level is considered. However, it may also mark that point as prone to breaking in the future. How Can I Trade Support and Resistance? Trading support involves buying when the price approaches this level with the expectation that it will bounce higher. Trading resistance involves selling when the price approaches this level with the expectation that it will reverse lower. Is Supply and Demand the Same As Support and Resistance? While related, supply and demand zones and support and resistance levels are not the same. Support and resistance focus on specific levels where buying (support) or selling (resistance) pressure is concentrated, whereas supply and demand zones encompass broader areas influenced by market orders. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EURUSD: Europe’s smooth inflation and U.S. NFPThe most important macro indicator posted during the previous week was the PCE indicator for October, a Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Posted data show that the PCE Price Index increased by 0,2% on a monthly basis, while core PCE was up by 0,3%. Both figures were in line with market expectations. Personal Income was increased by 0,6% for the month, while Personal Spending was higher by 0,4% in October. The PCE Price Index reached 2,3% on a yearly basis. The CB Consumer Confidence in the US in November was increased to the level of 111,7, above market expectations of 110. On the opposite side, New Home Sales decreased by -17,3% in October for the month, highly above market forecast of -3,5%. Durable Goods Orders were higher by 0,2% on a monthly basis in October, modestly below market forecast of 0,3%. US GDP Growth rate, second estimate for Q3 was corrected a bit to the level of 2.8% from 3% posted previously, but was generally in line with the market expectations. The German Ifo business Climate dropped in November to the level of 85,7, although market expectations were on a side of 86,3. The Ifo Current Conditions also slowed down in November to the level of 84,3 from 85,7 posted for the previous month. The GfK Consumer Confidence dropped to the level of -23,3 in December in Germany, again above market forecast of -18,7. The inflation rate in Germany preliminary for November is 2,2% y/y, while inflation on the monthly basis was standing at -0,2%. Retail sales in Germany dropped by -1,% in October for the month, bringing total retail sales to 1% increase on a yearly basis. The unemployment rate in Germany was flat in November at 6,1%. Preliminary inflation estimate in the Euro Zone in November is 2,3%, which is a bit higher from 2% posted for the previous month. Although posted figures are showing a bit of increase of inflation in the Euro Zone in November, still, it did not impact the eurusd market to start a short term reversal during the week. The currency pair started the week at 1,0425 and was mostly oriented toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 1,059. The RSI also started a short reversal toward the upside, reaching the level of 40. This level still does not represent a clear sign that the market is ready to start a road toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days made a clear cross, a so-called dead cross, with its MA200 counterpart, which is an indication of a potential for a trend change in the coming period. The currency pair currently stands at sort of a cross-road. On one side, the level of 1,04 represents the last defense for a road toward parity. On the opposite side, eurusd showed that there is currently no strength for a clear move toward the upside. The highest weekly level of 1,059 does not represent any significant level for the currency pair, which might be an indication of a potential another move toward the 1,04 support line. The dead cross should also be taken into consideration, but for a longer time-scale. So, for the week ahead, there is higher probability for testing 1,04 support, while the move toward the upside might be an option only after NFP data, which are scheduled to be released in a week ahead. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for November in Germany and Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the EuroZone, HCOB Services PMI final for November in Germany and the Euro Zone, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in October, Industrial Production in Germany in October, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in November, ISM Services PMI in November, Fed Chair Powell speech, Non Farm Payrolls in November, Unemployment rate in November, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for December.
by XBTFX