IBEX35. Unfinished spanish businessI normally don´t watch local TV but fortunately saw the news last week while I was having a lunch. Spanish GDP is growing 3.2% since last year and I heard almost the same words that I heard in 2007: we are in front of Europe, the crisis is behind... and else, and else, and else...
Just wanted to have a look at Ibex35 index, to see whether I missed some wonder or if somebody gave Spain several hundred Billion to restore the economy.
UNfortunately, I haven´t missed anything and the 22% of unemployment talks for itself.
From technical point of view, I can see a long-time H&S pattern which is still pending to be developed and drop spanish economy to the levels of the late 90s. And, in real numbers, to much lower than that because in late 90s there were no abysmal sovereign debt.
Talking about the numbers, I expect IBEX35 to raise back to 11.000 area that is where the Hagopian line is placed. This is a psicological value for those who follow the spanish market. Once there, their voices claiming the crisis is over will be heard from every bar: a classical situation with 80%+ of the bulls. We all know what market does when such a thing happen...
I would short IBEX35 from 10800 approximately, targeting as low as 3000 ish by 2-3 years as much. And hope there will be a broker who would pay for such a big short.
