DAX**DAX:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the channel and then reverse the trend.
GER40 trade ideas
New highs for 30. Awaiting 40Ahead of a busy week for US markets as inflation data that could help confirm interest rate cuts in September.
US30
30 has reached new highs as off last week and has close out of the previous month range, but it has seemed to lose a bit of steam Thursday and Friday (midweek). I'd expect the week to begin bearish atleast just to take Fridays lows and a possible reversal mid week. Until then, I will look for further bearish signs.
GER40
The current months price has been still captured between Junes price range and I will be awaiting a breakout. In July we have seen price reach 18779.3 and seems to be heading to Junes low 17883.1 as we can see structures being violated towards the downside on the 4 hour candle.
With this weeks earnings for mega caps, interest data being released compared to price. This leads me to this if we do see good data will price action become bullish or will the data not favour the US and continue to drop.
DAX (GER40) Is Still BrearishDax has taken a little different route. It has been consolidating but last week, it created a massive bearish engulfing candle. Which can push the price to the FCP zones below. If the first one fails we have an M pattern completion at the second FCP zone. Beware of a gap around 17200 level.
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Before:
Bearish on GER30 Dax, read the texts following the numeric orderThe chart itself is self explanatory.
German Dax is due for a correction and it has already created a:
1. Triple Top on the weekly time frame
2. H&S on the weekly time frame
The price is expected to retrace down to the monthly/weekly fibonacci golden zone level (0.5 to 0.618), which also coincides with a strong support (formerly resistance) area.
#DAX #GER30 #GER40
DAX - a Gartley or H&S your choiceThere are 2 patterns that can be considered for the DAX
1. Head & Shoulders - from Feb 27 to July 19.
a. Left Shoulder - peaks around 18550
b. Head - pushing the ATH for 19K
c. Right Shoulder - peaks around 18755
d. Neckline - was tested yesterday.
So if we take a measured move , targets the DAX around 17K.
2. Gartley Harmonic - taking the impulsive wave from the 19th April as XA , the AB,BC have
played out and we could be in the CD leg. The Gartley will target .786 of XA , seeing price around 17700.
Either way , there is potential for significant movement to the downside in the near term.
GER40/DAX on crossroads GER40 Index / DAX Outlook:
The DAX is pivoting at the resistance zone of 18,771.2 after a strong bullish uptrend that began on June 14th. This rise was followed by significant stop-loss hunts during the release of US news. Notably, I have observed a pattern where the weekly 100 MA and daily 50 MA crossed on the 30-minute chart. The last occurrence of this pattern was on June 13th, which led to a substantial downward movement of 3.86% in the DAX. I expect a similar movement in the following week if the strong low of 18,200 is sharply broken.
My Position:
I see two scenarios unfolding:
Breakdown: If the price action strongly breaks the psychological support at 18,200, I will look to enter a sell position.
Pullback: If the price recovers, I plan to sell during the pullback from my resistance zones between 18,500 and 18,800.
However, if these scenarios are invalidated by a sharp move, I will not engage in any order. Patience is crucial here, as I aim to sell at every high point. The markets are currently too elevated to continue the uptrend without clear justification. Good luck, traders!
DAX Good potential for nice ProfitFor me is Good setup for Buy.
It's look like more buy orders on the bottom
Smart Money works
After open London I will take decision.
Potential bullish bounce?GER40 is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support. A bounce from this level could indicate a double bottom pattern which might lead to a potential price rise to our take profit.
Entry: 18,249.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 18,064.57
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 18,484.02
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Germany 30 Buy I Buy Germany 30. Sl and Tp on the chart.
Now i just wait and see!!
Note! Increased volatility today due to interest rate news, so I'll be cautious with SL.
DAX H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,593.36 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,660.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 18,352.60 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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GER30 Bullish..Index is in a bullish trend. Long positions should be considered. Scale down to lower timeframes for better entries. Enjoy..
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears got follow through down to 18600 where Bulls were eager to buy and not wait for the market to hit the daily 20ema or the bull trend line. That’s strength by the bulls. My target was 18570 and we got 18590, that’s decent enough. The buying in the US session was still surprising to me but then I guess it’s up again. Last stand for the bears is 18740ish where the weekly 50% pullback is but I doubt it can hold.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18600 / 18900
bull case: Bulls bought the double bottom 18600 above the bull channel support line and now they want back up above 18800 and print a new ath. The broad bull channel leads exactly to the ath and leg1 and leg2 were 630 and 550 points big. If we get 500 points up, that would lead us to 19100.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears failed at 18600 and now odds favor the bulls to get back above 18800 again. Can the 50% pb at 18740 or the broken triangle bear trend line act as resistance? I highly doubt that. Got nothing for the bears here.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Bullish if we stay above 18600 for at least 18800 but probably higher.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Again buying a double bottom at big support on the 1h tf. Bar 8 + 14. Both had bigger tails below and market found not enough sellers below 18600. Had to get long latest bar 17. Buying bar 16 was tough because you would have bought right under the 1h 20ema and previous resistance. Any long below 18600 was king.
DE40 breakout to ATH imminent There is a breakout imminent on this index as sentiment switches to near short term greed. The playout is purely fundamental. A break towards 19000 is very likely.
DE40 breakout to ATH imminent There is a breakout imminent on this index as sentiment switches to near short term greed. The playout is purely fundamental. A break towards 19000 is very likely.
dax40We support the German index purchase, and we have set the targets and are waiting for them to reach the targets
DAX going to test a monthly tls originated in March'2000DAX is following the monthly triangle pattern now going to test the higher pattern linen(Tl) so a resistance level for the time being, it depends upon how market reacts here as it is a rising tl ( dynamic) so new and higher level every month
will post possible monthly and weekly levels in the comment section
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong day by the bears which was just a healthy pullback on a higher time frame. For bears to do some actual damage they need to print strongly below 18670 again. A measured move down would lead to 18570ish. Since bulls and bears have valid arguments here, I expect more sideways movement until we get another breakout above or below. No opinion on who wins it. Bullish above 18800, bearish below 18670.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900
bull case: Bulls see today as a pullback to the 4h 20ema and want to print a new ath while they have the momentum and trading above the higher tf ema. They also closed the market above the breakout price 18722, which confirms the bullishness, if we rally from here again.
Invalidation is below 18670.
bear case: In my weekly post I wrote that buying above 18800 is bad not matter how you look at it and bulls got another big rejection. The market now has formed a broad bull channel where the support line is around 18530, so another 170 points lower and coincidentally it’s also where the daily 20ema is. Enough reasons to have a stronger argument for another leg down by the bears.
Invalidation is above 18800.
short term: Bearish until we hit the daily ema or at least 18570. Invalid above 18800 or strong close above the 1h 20ema.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
trade of the day: buying the double bottom with y close
