2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - Look at the xetra 1h chart because it’s clearer there than on futures. 4 legs down and we have not touched the 1h 20ema on xetra since Tuesday. Strong follow through selling and there is an open gap down to 18928. Since we are seeing continues episodes of buying, I do expect this gap to get closed on a spike and we might go neutral or green into the weekend. We are right at the bull trend line from beginning of August and I highly doubt it will get broken on the second touch.
comment : Clear picture on the xetra chart. Close enough to the bull trend line to expect a big bounce upwards to 19200 or higher. If bears win this, next good support is 18800ish. I favor the bulls if they break strongly above the 1h 20ema tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 18950 on xetra)
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls are trying and buying in between the bear legs and one side will give up for a bigger move soon. Since this is the second touch of the bull trend line from early August, I have to favor the bulls. Their first target is a 1h bar close above 19100 and if the move is strong enough, we see more bears giving up and they will probably wait before shorting again higher. Second target is 19200 (50% pullback).
Invalidation is below 18800.
bear case: Bears continue to sell every rip near the 1h 20ema but the selling is getting weaker and they barely made new lows today. It’s either go big or go home for the bears. Strong break below the bull trend line 18900 is their only option or give up and try to short higher (19200 or wait for 19500).
Invalidation is above 19150.
short term: Neutral again at 19000. Big round number, should be huge support and my bias is bullish for tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Short near the 1h 20ema, again. Or buying 19000. Obvious trades in hindsight…
