GER40 trade ideas
11.11.24This week, investors will focus on October’s CPI data, expected to show a 2.4% annual increase, as they assess the inflationary impact of President-elect Trump's policies. Market attention will also be on comments from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, for clues on future rate cuts amid shifting economic conditions.
US30: Once October lows were captured price rallied as it has done in past election days into /Octobers highs. I still see price passing 44180.64 for this week but to see if the markets can continue to rally I'd like to see how US30 reacts to upcoming data and news.
GER40: Price traded as an inside candle week not really finding momentum in any direction, I feel price will reach 19679.3 first I will eye price passing 19565.0.
DAX H1 | Rising into swing-high resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 19,447.05 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,593.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 19,174.20 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Mo 2024 11 11 - LongStats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Long
Stats Week:
** Mid Month Turn,
** US CPI: 14:30,
** Fri Expiry 13:00,
** Mon Morning rule - pending,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change - pending,
Stats Month:
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Long,
* m45 close outside m45 BB Long/Short
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as range,
Bullish momentum The index is still ranging within a bigger structure and will likely retest the above resistance barriers since the bearish pressure has subsided.
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Neutral. Choppy week with going nowhere. Market was moving sideways while other markets melted higher. Can’t be anything but neutral, since market is contracting in a tighter range. If I had to guess, I’d say bulls have a slightly higher chance of printing a new ath than bears breaking below 19000, just due to overall market euphoria. If bears break below 19000, measured move down is 18000. Bullish break above 19700 and we go for 20000. Buying below 19200 has been profitable for 2 months and I don’t expect it to fail next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Big week for the bears since they broke the bull rally and most recent trend line, which turned the market neutral at previous support. Now comes the most important price action for the coming weeks. If bears get their strong second leg down, we will see 18200 in November, if we go sideways from here, odds drop for the bears and market is probably ranging more at the highs. It would also keep the possibility alive to print 20000 this year. The timing of the selling was in between very good earnings and mediocre outlooks. If we continue down, this would probably mean funds want to secure profits in this year and the selling could accelerate.
comment : Bears failed at 19000 which keeps 20000 alive and it’s more likely that we continue sideways than a break to the downside. Above 19600 I would favor the bulls to get it to a new ath and potentially to 20000. Wednesday was the most important day last week and I would join either side above or below that bar. Otherwise there is currently no deeper meaning of this trading range near the ath.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 20000
bull case: Bulls failed on Wednesday where they were rejected big time from 19560 for 500 points down. They have been printing higher lows since and now they need a break above 19600 for 19700 and then potentially 20000. As of now the market is in balance around 19300 and the triangle will play out some more. Any long below 19200 has been profitable for a month, so look for longs in that area, until it’s clearly broken.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Even with the big reversal on Wednesday, bears do not have much right now. Support is holding and market is spiking up, rather than below. As long as bears can’t print a daily close below 19000, it is useless to look at this from a bearish point of view. Even if bears get below 19000, the weekly 20ema is around 18800, so the downside is probably very limited, while bulls have the big target 800 points higher.
Invalidation is above 19700.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish for a second leg down, as long as we stay below 19400.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19254 and now we are at 19215. Monday and Tuesday were nothingburger and Wednesday crossed my invalidation line pretty fast. Wrong outlook anyway.
short term: Neutral 19000 - 19700, bullish above for 20000. I do think the triangle could play out some more and I am currently more willing to buy below 19200 than to short 19600.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Changed two legged correction into 3 legs down, target is the same for now.
DAX30 ANALYSIS IN MONGOLIANMake market easier to read. Volume and Liquidity analysis on dax30
SINKorSWIM
DAX40The daily trend for the market is bullish overall, showing an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, though currently in a consolidation phase. Key support is around 19,100 - 19,200, suggesting possible accumulation, while resistance near 19,400 - 19,500 could act as a rejection zone. In contrast, the hourly trend has a bearish bias, with recent downtrend movement indicating a pullback within the broader daily trend. If the price breaks above 19,400, this could align the hourly trend with the daily bullish outlook, while a breakdown below 19,100 would signal a potential reversal or deeper pullback in both timeframes.
Summary
Bullish Scenario: If the price respects the 19,150 demand zone and moves upward, consider long positions with targets near 19,400 - 19,500.
Bearish Scenario: If the price faces rejection around 19,400 and breaks below 19,150, consider short positions with a target around 19,000.
Buy to Sell The index is currently pulling back up, after falling off once it nibbled closely to a previous higher high. As price action develops, a bearish move would be favourable if price remains below the 19600-19400 resistance barriers. A break and rejection above the mentioned barriers might see further upward momentum. Rejection and stability under, 19600 may potential see further decline.
GER40 (DE40, DAX) SETUP !!Let's see how this one plays.
“The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading … I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.” — Victor Sperandeo
GER40 Trade Log Pair: GER40 (DAX)
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Setup: Long within 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Trade Parameters:
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2
- Risk: 1% of account
- Entry: Look for confirmation signals within the 1-hour FVG
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit:
- Stop-Loss: Positioned just below the entry trigger point within the FVG
- Take-Profit: Target set at twice the stop-loss distance, achieving the 1:2 RRR
Additional Notes:
- Utilize strong confirmation signals to support this setup
- Monitor market conditions that could impact GER40 volatility
DAX TODAYDAX TODAY for me back to sell.
I expect new low today and continiue next days
Remember about small risk
DE40 (GERMANY 40) HIGH PROBABILITY SETUP!! “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.” - Jim Rogers
Fri 2024 11 08 - Short||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Short
Stats Week:
** Wed US FOMC 20:00:,
Stats Month:
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Short,
* m45 close outside m45 BB Short
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as momentum at H3 D1 center,
DAX H4 | Falling to pullback supportDAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,351.22 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,260.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,624.78 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GER30 forecast This is GER30 forecast
I'm looking for sell opportunities, but the is possible buy opportunity.
I'm look for this current 1d candlestick to close under the 19410.00 level. Then tomorrow's 1d candlestick to show bearish power/close bearish under the 19305.00 level. Then I will be looking for retest on the 19305.00 level for continuation of sell.
If this doesn't happen, then I will be looking for buy opportunity above 19410.00 level.
but the trade will be based on technicals, sentiment and fundamentals.
Update will be given
GER40 there's still space for a scalpLong Position: Consider buying if price breaks and closes above 19,471, with a target near 19,700 and a stop-loss just below 19,400.
Short Position: Consider selling if price fails to break 19,400 resistance convincingly and starts showing bearish signals, targeting support at 19,000 with a stop-loss above 19,471.
TODAY WE HAVE Fed Interest Rate Decision
Likely To Expect a Mildly Positive Long Movement: The GER40 could benefit from a steady Fed rate, as it would stabilize global risk sentiment. A weaker USD could also support the Euro, potentially benefiting European equities. However, continued inflation concerns could raise expectations for tighter ECB policy, adding a layer of complexity.
Germany is destined for upside to 20,893 according to thisWe have seen a textbook Falling Wedge form on the Daily with the Dax.
It seems like there has been a consolidation (range bounded) move before the next direction.
So looking at the indicators and sentiment of the markets, in the medium term it looks like DAX is destined for upside.
Along with the main markets like S&P500 and Crypto.
We just need the price to break above 20MA and we could see the next target at 20,893
WHat do you think?
GER40 (DAX) Potential Bearish Reversal from Order BlockAnalysis Summary
Order Block Resistance: The chart highlights an order block around 19,373, which acts as a resistance zone. If the price reaches this level, it may encounter selling pressure, providing a potential area for a bearish reversal.
Lower High (LH) and Strong High: The presence of a lower high (LH) suggests that sellers are maintaining control at higher levels, reinforcing the resistance within the order block. This aligns with the overall bearish structure seen recently.
Support Zones: There are key support levels marked around 19,098 and 19,002, which could act as downside targets if the price reverses from the order block. These areas may attract buyers if tested, but a sustained break below 19,002 could indicate further bearish momentum.
Break of Structure (BOS): Previous BOS levels confirm bearish momentum, showing that the market structure has shifted to favor sellers. This enhances the probability of a downside continuation if resistance holds at the order block.
Potential Scenarios:
Bearish Reversal from Order Block: If the price reaches the 19,373 order block and faces resistance, it could initiate a bearish move toward the support zones at 19,098 and 19,002. A break below 19,002 would reinforce the bearish trend.
Short-Term Breakout: If the price breaks above the order block at 19,373 and sustains above it, this could invalidate the bearish setup, indicating a potential trend shift toward higher levels.
Conclusion
The GER40 is approaching a significant resistance within the order block at 19,373, where a bearish reversal could lead to a decline targeting the 19,098 and 19,002 support zones. Traders should monitor the reaction within the order block for potential short entries, keeping an eye on the support levels as downside targets.
Bearish drop?DAX40 (DE40) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 19,127.24
1st Support: 18,954.73
1st Resistance: 19,280.04
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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Bullish continuationThe index reversed from bearish to bullish on Friday last week and now price action is retesting an established low facilitating the bull run. If the downard retest breaks the 19k barrier, stability under this barrier will lead to more downward pressure. Stabilising above the above barrier, will likely see upward continuation.
