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HK50 trade ideas

Will HSI finish strong for Q2?2 weeks ago we discussed why the HSI:HSI rebound rally would be slowed by profit takers (). The choppiness in the index we saw for the past 2 weeks was also due to the discrepancy between the China and US equity market. While the SSE Composite SSE:000001 still held above 3300 level, the US equity indexes all broke through the 2022-May low due to the increasing worries of inflation and recession risk. Hong Kong as a market sitting in between the east and the west taking different messages from each side, fluctuation is inevitable in such a situation. Strong rebound in the US equity market last Friday In the recent Friday session (Jun-24), the US equity markets showed a strong rebound and paired back most of the losses from the past 2 weeks and stood above the May-2022 low again. That means the breakout to the downside we saw last week is likely to be a false breakout. While the main direction of the US equity market is still downward, it could take a break at this price level (to accumulate more energy before diving further). This break also means alignment between the US and China markets, which create the necessary condition for Hong Kong HSI to continue the rally to the upside. Xi Jinping is joining the HKSAR 25th anniversary event Next Friday, July-1 is the 25th Anniversary of the establishment of the HKSAR (also known as reunification with China). Last week Xi Jinping has confirmed that he will physically attend the anniversary event , which marks the first time for Xi to step out of mainland China since Covid outbreak in 2020. This gesture re-emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong to China. Reopen to revive Hong Kong Economy Back in early June the Liaison Office of Central People’s Government (LOCPG, Beijing’s main body overseeing Hong Kong) had hosted a meeting with foreign business chambers to collect “suggestion” and “advice” on how to revive the Hong Kong business environment. All chambers had expressed that the existing quarantine measure is the biggest roadblock for local business. With the new chief executive of Hong Kong, John Lee coming onboard next month, all eyes will be on him to iron out the reopening details of Hong Kong with mainland China and the rest of the world. Personally I am optimistic about the relaxation of quarantine measures as soon as the coming Q3. Reopening of Hong Kong is actually a one-stone-two-birds move for China. First, it can serve as a welcoming gift for John Lee from China, to help him rebuild trust between the government and the people in the city. Second, reviving Hong Kong economy, especially its financial market, is one of the crucial steps for China to save its downturning economy. I believe the announcement of the reopening would be one of the major events in Q3 that send the Hong Kong HSI Index to the upside. Technical Discussion HSI index retested the 20 days and 50 days moving average without going through, reconfirming the support at these levels. The strength also pulled the 20 days moving average above the 50 days creating a bullish technical signal. If we follow the upside rally narrative, below are the levels the index must break through to confirm the sustainability of the trend: 22142: 09-Jun, choppy zone peak 22523: 04-Apr, rebound peak from market plummet in Mar-2022 However, one needs to be extra cautious if the index drops below the low of the choppy zone at 20697 again , as this would mean the rally narrative discussed above is still premature. Long positions in the index as well as other Hong Kong listed stocks should be trimmed partially for risk management.
HSI:HSILong
by geoffreyip523
HK50 Wave Analysis The following is a wave analysis of HK50 from the recent swing low of 10th March 2022. We can see price move off a Double Bottom around 19100 and reach a high at 22300. This uptrend can be classified into 6 waves - from start to finish of V, I,N,I,N,N. The downtrend had commenced on the 9th of June , and price can be seen to have developed 3 waves - V , I , N. The Kihon Suchi time periods seem to reflect nicely the wave durations - 9,17,42. If the downtrend were to continue and see a complete reversal of this index to the prior swing low, then maybe a mirrored price, wave and time interval could be suggested. A fourth wave as an I wave down would complete a possible H&S pattern. This is the wave structure that is presently been watched for.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by salsapete
Jamie Gun2Head - Selling HK50Trade Idea: Selling Hang Seng Reasoning: 50% fib sell on Hang Seng Entry Level: 21082 Take Profit Level: 20597 Stop Loss: 21195 Risk/Reward: 4.29:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
CAPITALCOM:HK50Short
by Signal_Centre
HSI rebound rally will be slowed by profit takerWhile my view toward HSI remains bullish since the end of May after the index has decisively surged through its major resistance of the 50 days moving average, one need be aware that the index has entered a choppy zone due to the emerging selling pressure from profit taking of short term traders. That said, one should avoid breakout buying as higher price might trigger more profit taking orders causing slow down in upside price movement. No matter how affirmative one is, it is always important to keep your head up for potential developments that are aligned with, or against your point of view. Overconfidence will turn intuition into “into-wishing” . Below are some of the actions I would closely follow in the coming weeks to detect market sentiment change: 1. Market reaction after the US CPI and FOMC rate decision Last Friday the worse than expected US CPI figures pushed down the US equity market. Asian equity index futures (such as HSI, A50, NK225) in the night after-hours trading session also reflected the plummet. However, no matter how risk-off it was on Friday, it is worth noting that all of the 3 major US equity indexes ( SP:SPX , DJ:DJI , NASDAQ:NDX ) actually didn’t even reach the May-20 low. That means the CPI surprise indeed was not so surprising that it provided no new information to the market. What we need to observe is how the market moves when it reopens on Monday. However, major movement might only come after Thursday’s FOMC rate decision. 2. Chinese investors risk appetite Compared to HSI, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE Composite Index, SSE:000001 ) better reflects Chinese investors sentiment. SSE Composite Index has creeped back up to the 2022-Apr rebound peak level around 3290. At this major resistance level, the market will require positive news or policy release to sustain the bullish sentiment in order to surge through, otherwise the natural profit taking force will drive the market into consolidation or even reversal. With the increasing correlation between Hong Kong and the Chinese stock market, any change in Chinese participants' sentiment can move HSI greatly. 3. Non-Chinese fund FOMO buying of Chinese tech If follow the Southbound fund flow from China to Hong Kong closely, 4 weeks ago Chinese investors actually have started to rebuild their position in major tech firms such as Meituan HKEX:3690 and Kuaishou HKEX:1024 (Note: Alibaba HKEX:9988 is not available for direct purchase by Chinese investors due to secondary listing and weighted voting right issue). Only until the recent 2 weeks after the earnings release of Alibaba and Meituan, non-Chinese investors finally woke up from the Chinese bearish dream and started FOMO buying. An interesting observation is that since last Thursday when HSI briefly touched 22100 level, Chinese investors have turned from net buying into net selling of Chinese tech firms. That means for the past 2 days, Chinese investors were effectively selling the stocks to the non-Chinese. Once the non-Chinese find out they are the only one buying, there might be some retracement until the price at which Chinese players are comfortable to start loading up their position again. 4. Risk of China new round of lockdown Only 10 days after the end of Shanghai lockdown, Shanghai is restarting mandatory mass testing across districts over the weekend. Whether this event is a false alarm, or will evolve into a new wave of city lockdown is a major uncertainty. While most of the upside is already priced in from the current rally, one should actually prepare the sharp reversal to the downside when risk of lockdown emerges.
HSI:HSI
by geoffreyip523
HSI - short-term correction is comingComment : 1) FundFlow+ indicator - BEAR signal is here, a short-term retracement is expected to be happen soon 2) Tricol+ indicator - still strong/no retailer bar (turquoise) Support & Resistance : S : 21737.94 +/- the index would enter correction if it fall below today's low DISCLAIMER: Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
TVC:HSIShort
by TheWinningDay
HANG SENG The 6 year Support is holding. Potential 25k move.Hang Seng (HSI) broke and closed today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 2021. Despite the weakness since early April, the index hasn't yet broken or even come close to the March 16 low, indicating that we have a long-term Support. That is reasonable technically as that level (18250) is a 6 year Support formed by the February 12 2016 low and as long as it holds, pull-backs should keep finding buyers. The natural target next is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and towards the end of the year, the 0.618 Fib (around 25000), which would be a symmetrical move with the 2016 bullish break-out from the long-term correction. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:HSILong
by TradingShot
3
HANG SENG 30th MAY 2022In China, authorities are holding an unprecedented national meeting by teleconference in a bid to boost the economy hit by Covid-19. Investors' concerns about tightening monetary policy seem to have eased. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index led the strengthening of Asia-Pacific markets today. One of the driving factors was the soaring stock of Alibaba. Premier Li Keqiang also warned that China's current economic difficulties outweigh the severe shocks at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. So the bearish possibility could occur before they actually get out of the fight against the pandemic.
HSI:HSIShort
by DNP-FX
HSI bearish trend might be overturnedMoving into the last month of Q2, the HSI has entered a very interesting zone, which might become a turning point that indicates the end of the current bearish trend. Whether the new trend will be a sustainable bull, or just a bigger consolidation band of a higher timeframe, we don’t know yet, but at least in the short term the trading opportunity will be on the long side. Fundamental Update Last week the Chinese premier Le Keqiang had hosted an internal economy forum to discuss policy to rescue Chinese from global recession as well as covid zero policy. This meeting is a very important indication that the party has finally started to actively (and publicly) unwind their conflicting policies on the issue of public health and economic stability. More than 100,000 participants from the central state council and local provincial government had joined, which showed the weight of this meeting. One strong message from the meeting is that the central government would give more leeway for the provincial government to take their own action to secure their own economy. Given land sales is still the major source of income for most provinces, the tightening policy for real estate markets should see a reversal from this point onward. In fact, one should get the same message from the recent lowering of the five-year loan prime rate from 4.6% to 4.45%, which lowered the cost of borrowing for Chinese home buyers. On May-17, the Chinese vice-premier Liu He had shared his comments on the Chinese government support toward platform economy and overseas listing of Chinese tech firms. Coming from Liu He, that was a strong indication that there is a rising popularity in the party in prioritizing economic growth versus other internal conflicts. While this might be the turning point of the 2 years long tech crackdown, we shall continue to monitor how the story continues to unfold on the government side, as well as on the tech company side if these 2 years have caused some irreversible damage to their fundamentals hence futures. Chart Perspective The downward trending 50 days moving average has been the ceiling of the current bearish trend since 2021-Jul The market had tested the bottom from May-5 to May-12, but failed to reach the Mar-15 low at 18235 If the current rebound successfully break the 50 days moving average, there will be increasing chance that this bearish rebound might turn into the beginning of a consolidation band, or even bullish trend Key levels to watch are 20850 (50 days moving average) to 20927 (May open) . Note that if the index can close above 20927, it will form a reversal candlestick pattern in the monthly chart (i.e. hammer/dragonfly doji), which is very bullish. Trading Opportunity The breakout trade Long HSI futures (or bullish HSI CBBC product) when index rises through 20800 level. Recommend to adopt a trailing stop strategy for profit taking. Breakout trade should be exit if index traded back under 20800 The bullish trend following trade As of today, the index is still trading under the 50 days moving average, meaning the bearish trend is still effective. Any higher than intra day time frame bullish trade should be considered as front running. I am not encouraging or discouraging front running, as long as one understands the frontrunner is gaining the cost benefit by taking the trade at a lower winning probability pricing or timing. To take this frontrunner trade, I recommend buying at the money or <10% out of the money June or July HSI call option (or equivalent derivative warrants product). Compared to holding an outright long future position, I prefer to make use of the exponential payout curve nature to reduce my P&L volatility when waiting, as well as increasing my delta exposure when the trend is in my favor. Option position for this longer term setup should be rollover 2 weeks before expiration to avoid theta causing material harm to your P&L. This frontrunner trade should be close if the index go below 19200-18200 (it’s a range not a level, feel free to adjust within according to your level of conviction)
HSI:HSILong
by geoffreyip523
HK50 Index Intraday Technical AnalysisHK50 Intraday Technical Analysis: HK50 took support from 19240 in Asian session with an intraday closure of 19622 in Asian markets. The Asian index is expected to face resistance from this level . my target is the support of 19440 in intraday. My idea is entry at 19600 resistance level with the target of 19400 and 19200 support levels. If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by JBShark