JP225 NIKKEI LONG M15The Nikkei is short for Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the leading and most-respected index of Japanese stocks. It is a price-weighted index composed of Japan's top 225 blue-chip companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei is equivalent to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index in the United States.
JP225 trade ideas
JP225 (Nikkei) short positionBeen following the Japanese Yen over the past week and it has been showing significant. It's correlation to the Japanese index is negative. When the Yen strengthens, it pushes the price of the Nikkei down.
Currently waiting for price movement to become bearish again and break 15 minute trendline to hold a short position. Will trail it from there on. Stop will be placed above 38% fib of daily chart. The results of this trade could change as FED rate decision is pending on Wednesday. The market could buy into the Nikkei should risk sentiment shift significantly to the positive side.
JP225 long trade Entry at now price which is 36430
sl just below weekly pivot at 36100
targets as shown in chart
the ultimate target is 37850
JPN225 Correction Persists Ahead of the BoJThe Japanese index managed to swiftly rebound from the plunge caused by the central bank’s second rate hike and hawkish messaging at the end of July, as the market rout created some apprehension around the policy shift. Furthermore, the monetary setting remains accommodative and interests rates are still near-zero, while the stock market’s appeal goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen.
JPN225 comes from a strong week, fueled largely by the upbeat messaging from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that spilled over to Japanese chip makers. Advantest and Tokyo Electron, two of Nikkei’s largest constituents, jumped more than 7%. As a result the index tries to regain the EMA200 that would allow it to exit its correction and challenge the August highs (39,204).
However, the index is cautious this week, as tech optimism wanes and markets await the BoJ’s decision, preceded by inflation update. Policymakers are unlikely to raise rates again, but communication around the path ahead will be crucial. Official have pointed to further tightening ahead and another hike this year is reasonable, as inflation is well above 2%, wages have increased and Q2 GDP posted strong growth. Furthermore, the monetary policy shift and the Yen’s rebound have led to outflows from foreigners over the past seven months.
JPN225 stays in correction and below the EMA200 the risk of bear market persists, although sustained below that threshold has a higher degree of difficulty.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JPN225 I'm shorting nowas we see in chart we have a bearish flag
with tide sl and a very wide target
im placing my sl around 36550
entry price is now at 36221
targets
35500
34300
32300
NIKKEI LOCAL MOVE DOWN AHEAD|SHORT|
✅NIKKEI is retesting a key resistance level of 37,381
So I think that the index will make a pullback
And go down to retest the demand level below at 36,059
SHORT🔥
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JP225 where to now?As you can see the grey box is a clear area of liquidity for both holding support and resistance. Flip the grey box and we see a good move up imo. This happens to sit right near the 0.5 retracement which is also a very important level of interest.
I will continue to monitor volume closely as it is compressing into a narrow channel and it is only a matter of time before we get an indication of where price may be heading.
NIKKEI 2nd phase of rally starting.NIKKEI (NI225) couldn't have given us a more reliable bullish continuation signal that our last call (August 14, see chart below), as it hit exactly our 39000 Target and then pulled-back:
The rejection took place on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, similar to the, above 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection on October 13 2023, which is the Megaphone fractal we used last time to come up with the buy signal.
So far, the new correction almost reached the 0.5 Fib, so it is good enough for a buy, considering also the fact that the 1D RSI hit again the Symmetrical Pivot Zone, which is where the late October 2023 decline bottomed and started a new rally to the Megaphone's top.
As a result, we turn bullish again today, targeting 42450 (the July 11 High).
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Navigating volatility in the Nikkei225:Start of a Virtuous CycleBy Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst
Current Performance of Nikkei 225 Index:
As of 9 September, the Nikkei 225 Index was down by -0.48%, after falling as much as 3% as weak US Payroll added to slowdown fears and dampened risk appetite. The Nikkei 225 Index saw a 5th straight decline, with data showing Japan’s Q2 GDP expanded less than expected at 2.9% QoQ, but still advancing enough to keep the BOJ on track to hike rates later this year. At the same time, China CPI and PPI data fell short of forecasts, adding to global growth headwinds that could weigh on Japanese equities.
With the upcoming US elections and Japan’s leadership race, the path ahead for the tech-focused Nikkei 225 Index is likely to see added volatility, even as investors countdown to the Fed’s rate first rate cut in 4 years.
“The Time Has Come”
“The time has come” was a memorable phrase from Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. After several premature bets on Fed rate cuts earlier in the year, it appears that cuts are finally on their way. We expect discussion to shift towards the pace and reason behind Fed rate cuts.
In this backdrop, the Nikkei 225’s performance will largely depend on why rates are moving lower - with equities likely to outperform in a “soft landing”, but underperform in a “hard landing”.
With the US economy likely shifting from expansion into deceleration and a potential recession; and with previously-inflated valuations, a negative economic surprise such as last Friday’s payrolls data can trigger an outsized market reaction towards the downside. In other words, “Bad news will be Bad news” moving forward.
Green Shoots in Japan
However, fundamentals appear unchanged and we are inclined to believe that the recent bout of volatility is tied to weakness in the global economy rather than Japan itself. As mentioned in our previous post , we anticipated the August drawdown to be temporary as we viewed the increase in real wages, the first in 27 months, to be a key catalyst for the realization of a virtuous wage-price cycle that is expected to support consumer spending and boost sentiment. We also expect the BOJ to tread more cautiously regarding monetary policy moving forward, likely resulting in a more stable Yen.
At the same time, the government also presented its view that business investment is showing signs of picking up in its August monthly economic report, upgrading its monthly economic assessment for the first time in 15 months on signs of a consumption recovery.
Corporate reforms and growing shareholder activism have also led to higher dividends, more share buybacks and stronger balance sheets.
Other developments
Japan PM Fumio Kishida stepped down from his position and said he will not seek re-election on 14 August, paving the way for the ruling party to vote on his successor on September 27. A leadership vote in the ruling Liberal Democratic party set for Sept 27 will determine Kishida’s successor. Official campaigning for the LDP race starts on Sept 12, with about 10 candidates expected to run.
Geopolitical risks remain due to the upcoming US elections and potential chip curbs by foreign countries .
Nikkei 225 Outlook & Trading Opportunity:
In our view, we believe recent events have not altered the long-term fundamentals of the Japanese market. Nevertheless, volatility is to be expected with the upcoming US elections and global growth concerns lingering in the background; although we believe the overall trajectory for Japanese equities will be positive.
Alongside Fed rate cuts, a more moderate Yen could be beneficial for Japanese equities by lowering imported inflation and supporting consumer spending. In combination with wage hikes of around 5% expected in 2H, we expect real household income and private consumption to continue trending upwards, providing support to the Nikkei 225 despite a volatile backdrop.
In line with our view, we prefer to take entry on weakness, as we believe it provides an attractive entry point. Near-term volatility could see the Nikkei 225 Index under pressure; but we favour a long position in the long-run with a trailing stop-loss to help limit losses in the event of a sudden market downturn.
Expressing Our View:
We prefer the trade setup below to express our view:
Long Nikkei 225 Index Futures
Based on a Fibonacci Extension drawn from the October 2023 to the July 2024 high, the daily chart shows the index experiencing a brief rebound from the 5 August low of 31,156; but has since broken below the 0.382% extension level at around 37,000 – 37,100. We take this level as immediate resistance.
We expect to near-term volatility to bring the Nikkei 225 Index further down towards the 0.500% extension level around 35,697 – 35,700. We set this level as our entry point with a 5% trailing stop-loss, bringing our stop loss level to around 33,915. Our target level will be the 0.786% extension level around 40,499 – 40,500.
Several technical indicators support our view for near-term volatility:
- The MACD line is shown to have crossed below the signal line in a bearish crossover.
- Prices are below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.
Alternatively, traders can consider a short position to take advantage of near-term volatility. But the risk-reward for a long position looks more promising, in our opinion.
We also favour an 5% trailing stop loss to pair with our long position, allowing us to lock in profits if the price moves favourably.
• Entry Level: 35,700
• Target Level: 40,500
• Stop Loss Level: 33,915 (trailing stop preferred)
• Profit at Target: 4800 x ¥500= ¥2,400,000
• Loss at Stop: 1785 x ¥500= ¥892,500
• Reward: Risk Ratio: 2.69x
Trade Nikkei 225 with Phillip Nova now
Nikkei daily shortTesting the break down zone. Looking for a measured move down. Will be using this zone for longs if it instead breaks above and retests.
JP225USD: Using Probabilities to Position for a Bearish TrendThe current global economic landscape presents several factors that align with a bearish bias for the Japanese stock market, particularly the Nikkei 225 index (JP225USD):
Global Economic Slowdown: Concerns about a potential recession in major economies are weighing on investor sentiment.
Bank of Japan Policy Shift: The recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan may impact the stock market as it moves away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
Yen Strength: A stronger yen could potentially hurt Japanese exporters, affecting their profitability and stock prices.
Utilizing Probabilities for Short Positioning
I'm employing probability-based analysis on my charts to identify optimal entry points for short positions.
By combining fundamental bearish factors with probability-based technical analysis, I aim to create a robust trading strategy for shorting JP225USD.
2W:
2H:
Japan225 Daily Short: Targeting Downside After 0.7 Fib Retraceme This trade is based on the daily chart of Japan225, where the price has recently retraced to the 0.7 Fibonacci level, presenting a potential opportunity for a downside move. The current market structure indicates a possible reversal from the recent highs, with a key resistance area marked by the red zone on the chart.
Key Levels:
• Entry: The trade is entered near the 0.7 Fib retracement level, capitalizing on the potential for a pullback.
• Target: The target is set at the lower green zone, aligning with a previous support level where buyers may re-enter the market.
• Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed above the recent high, as indicated by the upper red zone, to manage risk if the price continues to climb.
Rationale:
The Japan225 has shown a significant retracement up to the 0.7 Fibonacci level, which often acts as a strong resistance area. The daily timeframe provides a broader perspective, suggesting that the price may now face downward pressure. This setup seeks to capitalize on the expected reversal, aiming for a move lower in the upcoming sessions.
Risk Management:
With a clearly defined stop-loss and a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, this trade minimizes risk while allowing for substantial downside potential. As always, adjustments will be made based on market behavior.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
JP225 now or neverVery important candle being formed. Volume continues to make higher highs and higher lows on multiple timeframes.
Nikkei225:Adjustments&Subsidies to Toyota,Nissan,PanasonicToyota, Nissan and Panasonic are adjusting their electric vehicle production strategies, reflecting the complex situation in Japan's auto industry. Toyota will reduce its global production of electric vehicles in 2026 to around one million units, down from its original plan of 1.5 million, underscoring the challenges in the transition to greater electrification amid changes in demand and the supply chain.
The Nikkei 225 index, one of the main indicators of the Japanese stock market, closed down 0.62%, influenced by these strategic moves and setbacks in key sectors such as mining, chemicals and precision technology. The Nikkei's volatility increased by 29.67% to 27.05, reflecting investor uncertainty. Looking at the Check Point (POC), it is around 38,520 points. The current range was between 39,450 and 36,650 points, above today's close of 36,422.50. Currently the RSI is at 39-40% so it could happen that on Monday the selling sentiment will continue to move higher at the open if there are no changes over the weekend.
Toyota, Nissan and Panasonic are benefiting from government subsidies of up to US$2.4 billion to boost domestic battery production, with the goal of expanding capacity by 50% to 120 GWh. Nissan has received certification to manufacture lithium iron phosphate batteries with a production plan of 5 GWh by 2028. However, high competitiveness and challenges in electrification continue to generate volatility in the Nikkei, reflecting investors' response to these companies' strategies in an evolving market.
Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NIKKEI225 Index Chart ReviewNIKKEI225 Index Chart Review
When the JPN225 weekly chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue on the trend line. As long as the index price cannot exceed the level of 39,489, it is evaluated that in price movements below the level of 36,827, it can break the level of 34,538 and retreat to the level of 27,512.
Perfect Short On The JP225USD4 hour chart: Trend is down and cycling down. Momentum is flashing red.
1 hour chart: Trend is down and CCI broke below -100
15 chart: pullback into TrendCloud and Supply zone.
Target is at first ADR checkpoint
JP225 sell pressure exhausted?Volume continues to stay flat whilst price continues down by 5 percent! I smell a pump...
JPN225 Drops Back to Correction TerritoryThe benchmark Japanese index experienced a steep decline after the central bank stepped up is tightening efforts at the start of the month, but was able to cover the losses as investors calmed down.
However, the BoJ is likely to raise rates again and along with the Yen’s rebound, JPN225 could face sustained headwinds. The index loses ground this week and falls back to contraction territory, as Nvidia’s slump amidst broader tech fears, spills over to Japan. Key Japanese chip manufacturing equipment companies and major Nikkei constituents like Tokyo Electron and Advantest suffered heavy losses. JPN225 is now exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of its recent rebound, which bring back the risk of a near market.
On the other hand the RSI points to oversold conditions, while the stock market’s strength goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. Above the 38.2% Fibonacci, JPN225 can push for higher highs (39,204), although sustained advance has a higher degree of difficulty under current conditions.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JP225Price has been in a steep up trend moving in a bullish channel we need to see a little exhaustion then continuation of the prevailing trend to 41,000-42,000
JPN225 to continue in the upward move?NIK225 - 24h expiry
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
Our short term bias remains positive. The primary trend remains bullish.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
We look to buy dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 38645.
We look to Buy at 38650 (stop at 38370)
Our profit targets will be 39350 and 39480
Resistance: 38880 / 39000 / 39171
Support: 38750 / 38463 / 38250
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NIKKEI - Bull ResurgenceMacro :
- Inflows into USD investment resulting in USDJPY rally should boost the NIKKEI and vice versa
- Equities have rallied accros the board, NIKKEI should follow
Technicals :
- Reverse H&S pattern
- Price broke through 50-100-200-400 MAs on daily timeframe
- 46k target
Nikkei to find buyers at market price?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Our short term bias remains positive.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
20 4hour EMA is at 38333.
We look to Buy at 38340 (stop at 38030)
Our profit targets will be 39010 and 39190
Resistance: 38817 / 39000 / 39200
Support: 38500 / 38300 / 38000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
JPN225 Outlook💹 Indice:
📈 Bullish Outlook
JPN225 has been breaking into new highs on our Weekly, Daily, and 4hr time frame.
Long term time frame (1W): Price has been surfing above the 10ema and showed strength.
Intermediate (1D): Price is re-accumulating.
Entry time frame (4hr): Price has re-accumulated below the 10ema.
Entry time frame (4hr): I'm interested in longs if price can continue and show a bearish candle for a buy stop.
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
