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NAS100 trade ideas

Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 7 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - JOLTS Job Openings @ 15h00 News - None Directional bias - BUY Morning analysis: M TF - Currently showing bullish sentiment, even after last month's doji candle close. W TF - Bulls have managed so far to keep price above W neckline (on the W TF change the chart type to line chart and you will clearly see the "M" representing a DT market pattern). D TF - D 0.618 SELL fib level was broken, as bulls pushed price up well above this level and managed to close the D candle above it. Even though bulls showed massive strength on Monday, they were unable to close the D candle above the D falling wedge pattern top blue line, i.e. they were unable to break the pattern upwards. At time of writing in the morning, temporary blue downtrend line is being respected. The blue downtrend line represents the D downtrend of the falling wedge (drawn on the D TF) and the green down trendline represents the 4H downtrend line (drawn on the 4H TF) 4H TF - Potential neckline of a DT noted and marked with orange. If the 7am candle breaks this neckline downwards, price will push down because we are at the top of a higher TF market pattern (D falling wedge) + we have a 4H DT. These are strong bearish signals, but they will only be valid should price action give a reversal signal by bears being able to break the orange neckline downwards. The D buy fib levels coincide with the 4H buy fib levels as both are drawn from swing low at B to swing high at A on each respective TF. This gives a form of TF confluence and makes these levels stronger. 1H - Bears have managed to break below the pivot point + 1H EMA. The 1H candle that closed at 6am, wicked down to the pink uptrend line and there was a strong reaction (long lower candle wick) alluding to the validity of this uptrend line. Interest area's: 1. One buy area of confluence marked in green highlight - 4H EMA + D EMA (at that time) + D 0.382 buy fib level As the day progressed: Bulls managed to push up and break the pivot point upwards. The candle that broke the pivot closed right on the 30min EMA. When Nas is very bullish or bearish, the 30min EMA will act / be respected as dynamic support and resistance. Hence, I didn't want to enter my buy right at this level. I waited to see what price action would reveal. Looking at the 15min TF you can see a small price retracement to the pivot point (red candle at C.), a doji right at the pivot point and a green candle pushing up and away from the pivot and closing higher . It was at this point that I entered on a full position size, as I deemed my risk low because I had waited for the break and re-test: Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - 30 min DB with neckline broken upwards and re-tested 2. S&R - pivot point + 1H EMA acting as dynamic support 3. Trend - Buy is in the overall bullish direction of the recent market and temporary orange downtrend line broken upwards. Price also rejecting and moving away from temporary down trend blue line 4. Fib - 5. Candlesticks - bullish engulfing candle to the left of C. on the 1H TF + previous long wick candle rejecting the D sell 0.618 fib. Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, so that the pivot point the 1H EMA and bulls rejecting the 4H neckline could possibly protect my buy. Price action was a bit choppy, but I held my position open as price was making higher highs and higher lows on the 1H TF. Price gradually trending upwards along the 1H EMA. Then news came out at 15h00 and price fell through the floor. JOLTS Job Openings is not really a "high impact" news event for Nasdaq like the CPI and NFP is. So this was a surprisingly volatile move, indicating how sensitive traders are to economic news that would affect Fed decisions regarding rate cuts. For me, up until the news, Nas was showing really good bullish price action. And then price just fell through the floor. I closed my biggest position at 1'150 pips loss (as I usually don't like to take losses of more than 1'000 pips a day). My smaller position size, I hesitated to close and took a loss of 2'411 pips! WHAT THE HELL!!! This was the fist time in a long time that I hesitated to close and it cost me badly, my emotions really got in the way here. Then, as per my strategy, when price reached my interest area, I moved down to the 5min TF and entered a buy when price made a DB on the 5min TF at the lower hand icon.. But that was a false signal i.e. a small bounce off a strong reversal zone, but price ultimately tanked further and I closed at 1'126 pips loss. What a freakin disaster....I basically took a 2'927 pips loss today (if I smooth the effect of position sizing). Part of this loss is due to variance and part of it is due to my own fault. There is no way I could have projected that Nas would fall through the floor on this news event and I don't regret my entry as I do believe my entry is correct for my bias and I did wait for the break and re-test. My mistake was that I hesitated to close and took a bigger loss than I should have. I also should not have entered again if I had already taken such a huge loss for the day. My strategy is to be out for the day if I make a 1000 pip loss. So it was a bit of a disaster. Nasdaq (and mostly myself) DESTROYED me today! After this devastation to my trading account, I think I will sit the rest of the week out, as tomorrow market are closed in national mourning and then Friday is NFP which I don't trade anyway. I need market to be as "normal" as possible because now I have my work cut out for me to slowly make up these losses. I will need to look for good quality entries and limit my risk. ​Losses are normal in trading and these will be faced by every trader. But the biggest damage a trader can do to his progress is to have uncontrolled losses and let losses get bigger than they should. It has been many months since I made this error, so I am making progress, but one bad day can cause serious damage. Limiting losses is more important than making money. If you don't have this skill you will never be profitable over the long run - I was reminded of this valuable lesson today. Hope you had a better day than me! Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
US100 LONG SETUP Full Actionable Plan for US100 Analysis (Daily, Weekly, 4H) 1. Market Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short-Term Correction within Bullish Structure) The overall higher timeframes (weekly and daily) show that the bullish structure is intact, as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud holding support, HL formations, and the lagging span remaining close to price. However, the 4-hour timeframe shows bearish momentum, with: • Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) forming. • OBV crossing below the previous HL line, indicating decreasing volume participation. • Chaikin Oscillator and CMF showing outflows. • ADX showing bearish momentum dominance. The daily Fibonacci retracement levels (from the last higher low to the swing high) and the 4-hour Fibonacci extension for the downtrend give clear retracement points. Given these signals, the strategy is to wait for a proper higher low confirmation on the 4-hour timeframe within the retracement zones and avoid catching a falling knife. 2. Entry Strategy: Long Position (If Support Holds) • Preferred Entry Range: • Primary Entry: 20,800 - 20,950 (aligned with 0.618 - 0.786 retracement on the daily Fibonacci). • Secondary Entry (confirmation breakout): A bullish candle close above 21,300, ideally confirmed by price closing above the 4-hour 50 SMA (21,343). • Conditions to Enter: • 4-hour RSI crosses back above 50. • The VW MACD turns green or shows decreasing bearish momentum. • The Chaikin Oscillator moves back into positive territory (above zero). • Price must respect the 200 SMA on the 4H and not close significantly below the Ichimoku cloud lower band. 3. Leverage Recommendation • Suggested Leverage: x10 - x15. • Given the drawdown tolerance, a x15 leverage works well if the entry aligns at 0.618 - 0.786 retracement. 4. Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) • Stop Loss (SL): • Conservative SL: 20,600 (below key Fibonacci level and Ichimoku cloud). • Aggressive SL: 20,700 (tight stop below the HL formation if taking an early entry). • Take Profit (TP): • First TP: 21,700 (aligned with the top of the Bollinger Band on 4H and daily cloud midline). • Second TP: 22,050 - 22,100 (daily resistance from the last high). • Final TP: 22,400 - 22,500 (swing high target, aligned with Fibonacci extension). 5. Monitoring Signals and Risk Adjustments • If Price Closes Below 20,600: • This invalidates the higher low formation and would shift the bias to bearish continuation. • If this happens, wait for confirmation near 19,800 (key support cluster on the volume profile). • If 4H ADX Turns Bullish with Green DI Rising: • This strengthens the case for taking entries with confidence at HL points. Overall Setup Recap: • Bias: Bullish continuation after short-term pullback. • Preferred Entry Range: 20,800 - 20,950 (aligned with Fib levels). • Suggested Leverage: x10 - x15, depending on the setup. • SL Range: 20,600 (safe) or 20,700 (tight). • TP Targets: 21,700 (first), 22,100 (second), 22,400 - 22,500 (final). This strategy ensures that you’re capitalizing on retracements while confirming higher low structures to ride the potential continuation move higher. Drop a like if you like the idea.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 6 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - I think BUY. Morning analysis: M TF - so far, buyers are showing strength after last month's doji candle close. Can't read too much into it though because the candle is not fully formed and closed, but it does indicate buyers sentiment currently. W TF - Last weeks candle closed just below the W neckline, but does this constitute a break of the neckline downwards? Difficult to say because bulls were in total control of the market last Friday and drove price up by thousands of pips, creating a very long wick candle. It was only in the final 4H of Friday that bears pushed price down +-170 pips below the neckline. The market is imperfect, and I would not be too quick to read this as a neckline broken downwards, especially because the early morning trading of today shows a strong rejection of the neckline area. I draw my neckline and S&R as lines but one should always keep in mind that these are areas or zones. D TF - Clear falling wedge pattern in formation (shown in grey and blue lines). These tend to break upwards, but can break in either direction. A break of this pattern in either direction, will result in a large move because the pattern is so large the resulting break + profit target will be large. At time of writing this morning, price is consolidating at D EMA. 4H TF - Strong uptrend and this morning we see a strong rejection of the W neckline area, with a gap up and a candle wick down to the neckline area. Morning interest areas where identified but these later changed as fibs had to be re-drawn (and so not shown on the charts). Later once price stabilised, interest zones where identified but price did not retrace. Day and 4H fibs were drawn from swing low at B to swing high at A. Area's of confluence marked in green highlight but now invalid as price keeps climbing. This morning.... I identified a red highlighted area which I deemed a strong sell area due to D EMA possibly acting as dynamic resistance + D 0.50 sell fib level. Price started to consolidate here in an ascending triangle pattern. These patterns usually break upwards, but can break in either direction. I entered a buy at the hand icon on the break of the market pattern + the D EMA (D EMA has now moved higher as price has moved higher). I took a small position because I don't like these entries where you buy at the highest level of the day which it was at the time of my buy (I find these to be risky and prone to fake outs). I prefer retracement entries (for me, safer entries). Hence my small position. Now I wish it was my usual position size because price is up +- 3'300 pips! :) At least I caught the buy! Hope you had a good trading day! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq ShortsLooking for short this week from this level and the level of imbalance above current price. Correlates with stochastic RSI, channel, and resistance. Teach forecast is weaker for the coming quarters on earnings guidance. PE ratios are really expensive. I think we will see more of a correction before any bullish optimism in the market. I also believe the market will pullback and consolidate until Trump is inaugurated and starts to sign executive orders.
FX:NAS100Short
by SoapstoneCapital
US100 Will Go Up! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for US100. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 21,549.6. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 22,260.2 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by SignalProvider
1
NASDAQ rebounding strongly on its 1D MA50. 1 month rally ahead.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and hit last Tuesday its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) exactly on the Channel's bottom. Even though it marginally broke it, the 1D candle closed exactly on the 1D MA50, causing a strong bullish Friday reaction. As today opened equally green, we technically view this sequence as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, which may be confirmed today if the 1D RSI breaks above its MA (yellow trend-line), as both previous Bullish Legs did. Our Target is 22600, which represents a +9.00% rise, the minimum a Bullish Leg had within this Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
1