US100 daily time frameGood morning traders, I have been quiet for a while, I hope everything has been going well.
My US100 daily tf analysis. I have posted the daily analysis on this pair before, hoever this is an update on how it is playing out. If you look at the left of the chart, you can see that market reversed after an uptrend(cant be seen) I want to point out the 3 levels that price moved down after this reversal(marked on the chart). After these 3 levels of retest and fall, The market then formed a massive double bottom, which was made up of 2 smaller double bottoms as shown on the chart. We have been buying this pair for over a month now, with sells in between(because market always has to retrace) So as it stands now, market had formed the double bottom on the daily time frame, so we are in for very strong buy, for the next few months if this reversal is respected as analysed.
Price at the moment has broken above the 200 and 800 ema resistance, making it a support. Price went down to retest that zone the day before yesterday, and yesterday it began the move up. So I expect buys on this pair, and will wait for the correct signal to enter, as I closed my sell trades yesterday from the day before.
NAS100 trade ideas
USNAS100 - Key Levels for Bullish and Bearish MovesTechnically:
The price is still consolidating between 20860 and 20990, awaiting stabilization with a bearish volume below the lower range.
Bearish Scenario:
Stability below 20860, confirmed by a 4-hour or 1-hour candle close beneath this level, could trigger a move towards 20750 and potentially 2060 (confirm the exact level for clarity).
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 20990 would indicate a bullish trend, with the next target at 21060, potentially leading to a push toward the ATH around 21250.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20860
Resistance Levels: 20990, 21080, 21250
Support Levels: 20750, 20670, 20550
NAS100USD / SAME DOWNTREND YESERDAY / 4HUSNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The price has already declined by 300 pips (a pip is a standard unit in financial markets, often used in forex trading to measure price changes).
The price is currently attempting to reach 20,908 and 20,990. These are likely resistance levels, meaning points where the price might struggle to break through.
If the price remains below 20,908–20,990, a further decline is expected. The targets mentioned for this decline are:
• 20,668
• 20,451
If the price breaks above 20,990, it could increase to reach 21,105.
The price is still below the All-Time High (ATH), and the general expectation is for further declines unless the resistance levels are breached.
NAS100USD / OVERALL DIRECTION TOWARDS DOWNWARD /4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Trend:
• Prices are under downward pressure as they remain below the resistance level of 20,839.
• The market appears to be consolidating or stabilizing around this level, preparing for a potential move.
Upward Scenario:
• If prices remain below 20,839, it is suggested that they may decline further:
• First target: 20,666 (support level).
• Further decline to 20,451 (next major support).
Downward Scenario:
• If the price breaks above 20,839 (the resistance level), it could lead to a rally:
• Initial target: 21,105.
• Further move to 21,249, which is identified as the All-Time High (ATH).
Market Analysis for NAS100USD: Bullish Outlook
Technical Perspective
1. Trendline Support:
• The chart shows NAS100USD bouncing off a key ascending trendline support (marked in red). This signifies strong buying interest at this level, maintaining the uptrend structure.
• The bounce coincides with a horizontal support zone near 20,725, adding further strength to this level.
2. Stochastic Indicators:
• The Stochastic Divergence and other oscillators appear to be recovering from oversold levels, suggesting that selling pressure is waning and a bullish reversal could be forming.
• These indicators align with potential upward momentum if buyers step in at this critical juncture.
3. Chart Patterns:
• A higher low structure remains intact, supporting continued bullish sentiment.
• If the price moves above 20,800, it may break through to test the next resistance near 21,000-21,200, the previous high.
Macro and Fundamental Factors
1. Earnings and Economic Data:
• As per the Forex Factory Calendar and other resources:
• Any positive economic data today (e.g., GDP revisions or labor market data) could boost tech-heavy indices like NAS100USD.
• Investors are likely positioning ahead of potential positive earnings surprises or data releases.
2. Sector Strength:
• Tech companies, heavily represented in NAS100, benefit from stabilizing Treasury yields or dovish Fed sentiment.
• If bond yields remain steady or decline, growth stocks within NAS100USD could see inflows.
3. Risk Sentiment:
• Broader market sentiment today is tilting toward risk-on behavior, as evidenced by positive global equities.
• A continued reduction in geopolitical tensions or other market risks could further favor upward movement.
Key Levels to Watch
• Immediate Resistance: 20,800-21,000. A break above this zone could see a quick move toward 21,200.
• Key Support: 20,700. If this level holds, it strengthens the case for a bullish continuation.
• Target Zone: 21,200+ if resistance is broken.
Conclusion:
With the trendline support intact, oversold indicators turning upward, and a potential risk-on macro environment, NAS100USD is poised for a rebound. As long as the 20,700-20,725 zone holds, we expect a move upward toward 21,000-21,200 in the near term. This bullish outlook is contingent on no major surprises from economic data releases or unexpected market shocks.
NAS100 - A Closer Look20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Dear Friends:
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How I see it:
Still finding trend support.
Severe 1W overbought divergence is giving me a nosebleed...
For me personally, I need BOS in any direction.
Patience is key.
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
Keynote!
The most important to consider always, before you leap:
When you jump in the river, make sure you swim "WITH" the current.
Technical and digital analysisWe notice that we are in an upward correction and there is an increase in momentum. We are waiting for sellers to weaken in order to buy, Update idea Add note
CHART BREAKDOWN NASDAQ: Key Levels, Targets and Thoughts!Brief Description🖊️:
The chart provides insights into critical market levels, emphasizing 1 essential supply zone: low-risk sell spanning from 20,893.00 to 20,909.00, respectively, is highlighted.
Things I Have Seen👀:
Important Demand Zone🟢: Identified between 20,893.00 and 20,909.00 serving as a low-risk sell.
Bearish Targets📉:
20,860.00: Possible retracement area.
20,840.00: Possible retracement area.
20,820.00: Possible retracement area.
20,800.00: Possible retracement area.
20,765.00: Significant supply zone.
20,628.50 : Liquidity area.
What's Important Now❗
Currently, the crucial approach is to wait and observe the price action at this level. We need to assess how the market reacts before considering any decisive moves. Stay observant and responsive to real-time developments in the market.
NAS100USD: Bearish Opportunities from Fair Value PriceGreetings, Traders!
In today’s analysis, NAS100USD is exhibiting strong bearish momentum, confirmed by heavy volatility to the downside. Currently, price is retracing into the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the equilibrium or fair value.
Why Fair Value?
The equilibrium is a key zone where institutions favor initiating sell orders. This area is considered optimal as price transitions from discount to fair value, providing smart money an ideal level for market distribution.
Aligned with this fair value zone is a Fair Value Gap (FVG), where I will focus on confirmation entries for selling opportunities targeting downside liquidity.
Targets
First Target: 50% of the entire leg.
Second Target: Liquidity pool at the swing low.
If you have insights, analysis, or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s learn and grow together!
Happy Trading,
The_Architect
Good chance small cap stocks outperform large cap tech 4-8 weeksLooks like there is a good chance that small cap stocks (Russ2k) outperform large cap tech (Nas100) over the next 4-8 weeks at least
Nasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic DataNasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data
The Nasdaq index experienced a slight decline of 0.9% today, reflecting a mix of economic signals, investor sentiment, and broader geopolitical concerns. Key data releases from the US provided a nuanced picture of economic performance, contributing to cautious market behavior.
US Economic Data Highlights
- **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, reflecting tighter supply conditions.
- **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion.
- **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but signaling a slowdown compared to revised previous data of 0.6%.
- **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased marginally by 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.5%, indicating weaker-than-expected demand for long-term goods.
- **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Rose to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%, underscoring mild inflationary pressures.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Despite today’s decline, seasonality is currently favorable for the Nasdaq, as historical trends often support equities during this time of year. Additionally, the **Fear & Greed Index** currently sits at **64 points**, indicating moderate optimism among investors and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically supports risk-on behavior in the markets.
Rate Cut Expectations
Market participants are closely monitoring monetary policy, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut** at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on **December 18th**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
While the economic picture and market sentiment provide support, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The war in Ukraine remains a significant factor in the global risk landscape, with potential implications for energy prices, supply chains, and broader economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Correction Could Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact for now, supported by strong economic fundamentals and favorable seasonality. However, the current correction may take some time to resolve as markets digest mixed data and geopolitical risks. Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility while keeping an eye on key macroeconomic developments.
Broader Context
Today’s data reinforced the view of a steady, albeit moderating, US economy. However, forward-looking risks are rising:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast predicts global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with the US slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Anticipated policy changes under the new administration may elevate inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
The Nasdaq’s modest decline today reflects investor caution as the market digests mixed signals from economic data and weighs the potential for policy shifts. However, supportive seasonality, a "Greed" sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index, and expectations of a December rate cut could help stabilize or even boost the index in the near term.
Looking ahead, the interplay between policy developments, global growth dynamics, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings will remain crucial for the index's direction.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq? Will the anticipated rate cut and seasonal trends provide a boost, or will geopolitical and economic risks keep the market under pressure? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Long NAS100 - US100US100 printing the series of HH and HL and also respecting their 4h trendline, I open my entry at the levels...What do you think??
NAS100USD: Is Bearish Control Taking Over?Greetings Traders!
While NAS100USD remains bullish, I see signs of a potential bearish shift for several reasons identified on the chart. Most notably, price has been rejecting a Rejection Block, a significant institutional resistance zone. This rejection has resulted in strong downside displacement, signaling that institutional interest may now lean bearish.
Retail vs. Institutional Resistance
Institutional Resistance:
Price has retraced into heavy premium levels, ideal for selling opportunities (sell in premium, buy in discount). A key difference with institutional resistance lies in its foundation on Rejection Blocks. These order blocks, formed at market turning points, are characterized by large wicks relative to candle closures. They indicate that institutions or smart money entered substantial sell orders, giving confidence to anticipate bearish price action.
Retail Resistance:
In contrast, retail resistance often serves as engineered liquidity. Here, banks and institutions create the illusion of a resistance zone to entice retail traders into taking trades. These zones, strategically placed at premium levels, enable institutions to sell against retail positions. Understanding this manipulation is critical for aligning with institutional order flow.
Trading Plan
Confirmation Zone:
Monitor price action at the Rejection Block and premium levels for bearish confirmation.
Targets:
Fair Value: The 50% retracement of the leg.
Liquidity Pool: The downside liquidity resting below current levels.
Discussion and Insights
If you have questions, analysis, or insights, feel free to share them in the comment section. Let’s collaborate, learn, and grow as traders!
Kind regards,
The_Architect
NAS100 morning technical analysisTechnical analysis for NAS100.
Very neat how this wedge defines price since 5 August low. Besides the proposed wave (5) up, it has framed and (therefore) provided both support and resistance for price.
The wedge will reach its apex soon, so one side or the other will have to prevail. Failure of price to tag median (red line) of pitchfork suggest return of price to 18297.4 at some point.
NAS100 TO TANK DOWNGood day once again traders, The market is still respecting our previous setup,we will be taking shorts when the market returns to our range and gets inside our FVG, i am hoping that it does that before 11:00(Newyork time)
entry:20941.2
SL:20977.3
TP:20703.8
Tradingdaq | NAS100 Market Daily Technical AnalysisWhile NAS100 continues to display a bullish trend, I am closely monitoring indicators that suggest a likely bearish shift. The price has consistently encountered resistance at a Rejection Block, clearly marking this area as a significant institutional resistance zone. If the price drops and a bearish candle closes below 20870, I will establish my target at 20750.
NAS100 Forecast for tonight's new york sessionas per right now Nas100 is still on the bearish market structure, looking for M1 entry model for short on the new york session
US 100 Index NDQ 27 Nov 2024 zonesBullish zone is above 20946
Bearish zone is below 20797
Note: This is not a buy/sell call. Use stop loss whenever trade.
NAS100 - The Great Pie In The Sky?20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Dear Friends:
If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service.
How I see it:
Price still holding below 20967...
Anything is possible this time of year.
A ton of compressed data releases today, be safe!
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
Keynote!
The most important to consider always, before you leap:
When you jump in the river, make sure you swim "WITH" the current.
NAS100USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 20,946.7.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 20,451.1 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NAS100 SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Nas100 price has form a rising wedge pattern so there is a chance of falling more if line 20805.4 break and trader is expected to go for SHORT with expected profit target of 20639.1 and 20426.3 . Use money management
CHART BREAKDOWN NASDAQ: Key Levels, Targets and Thoughts!Brief Description🖊️:
The chart provides insights into critical market levels, emphasizing 1 essential demand zone: low-risk buy zones spanning from 20,873.00 to 20,860.00, respectively, is highlighted.
Things I Have Seen👀:
Important Demand Zone🟢: Identified between 20,873.00 and 20,860.00 serving as a low-risk buy.
Bullish Targets📈:
20,885.00: Possible retracement area.
20,905.00: Possible retracement area.
20,915.00: Possible retracement area.
20,935.00: Possible retracement area.
20,955.00: Significant supply zone.
20,960.00: Liquidity area.
What's Important Now❗
Currently, the crucial approach is to wait and observe the price action at this level. We need to assess how the market reacts before considering any decisive moves. Stay observant and responsive to real-time developments in the market.
