USTEC (NASDAQ 100) Analysis – 30M Timeframe
1️⃣ Market Structure & Current Position
Current Price: 19,758
Recent Swing Low: 19,200 (March 14)
Recent Swing High: 19,900 (March 20)
Key Observations:
The market is ranging between 19,200 – 19,900.
Breakout above 19,900 could trigger a strong rally due to thin liquidity above.
If rejected, price could retest 19,600 or 19,200 before resuming upside.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
Support Zones (Demand Areas)
19,600 – 19,650 → High volume node, key retest level.
19,200 – 19,250 → Major liquidity zone, potential bounce area.
Resistance Zones (Supply Areas)
19,900 – 19,950 → Immediate resistance, key breakout level.
20,400 – 20,450 → Fibonacci 1.618 extension.
20,850 – 20,900 → Fibonacci 2.618 extension, potential exhaustion zone.
📌 Gann Confluence Levels:
19,800 – 19,850 → 1/8th division of the last major range.
20,250 – 20,300 → 2/8th division, possible reaction point.
3️⃣ Probable Scenarios & Probability (%)
📈 Bullish Scenario (70% Probability)
Break & Retest of 19,900 → Target 20,400 – 20,850.
Confirmation: Volume spike above 19,950 & bullish close on H4.
Wave 3 of Elliott Cycle could push price to 20,900 if momentum is strong.
📉 Bearish Scenario (30% Probability)
Rejection at 19,900 → Drop to 19,600, possibly 19,200.
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing candle below 19,750 & increase in sell-side liquidity.
If 19,200 breaks, expect deeper pullback to 18,900 – 18,800.
4️⃣ Conclusion & Trading Strategy
🎯 Bias: Bullish above 19,900, cautious if rejected.
✅ Long Entries:
Break & Retest of 19,900 → TP1: 20,400, TP2: 20,850, TP3: 21,300
Aggressive Buy: Bounce from 19,600 with strong bullish rejection.
❌ Short Entries:
Rejection from 19,900 → Target 19,600 & 19,200.
Aggressive Short: If price fails to break 19,750 with increasing sell volume.
🎯 Stop Loss Levels:
For Longs: Below 19,500.
For Shorts: Above 20,600.
🚀 Final Thoughts
If USTEC clears 19,900 with volume, we could see an explosive move to 20,400 – 20,850.
If rejected, price may revisit 19,600 – 19,200 before another breakout attempt.
