AEX: the bearmarket has begun!Today I am sharing my longer term vision for the worldwide stockmarket. However, since I am a Dutchie, I will use the AEX to show you what I think is coming.
I will keep it brief: the crashwave from February and March this year has been the start of (at least) a 2-3 year bearmarket into 2022 I would say...
How can I say this?
1. I have seven years experience in analysing and trading the market. I first lost a lot of money to learn the hard way, but later on learned complex technical tools that most do not want to hear about or don't know. Besides this, I found a signal system which gives golden trading opportunities for short term (day) trading.
2. I love time analysis and even more since 2018 when my understanding of cycles and how to calculate 'turn dates' improved A LOT! Since then I have made a lot of weird top and bottom calls which blew my mind everytime...
3. It is NOT NORMAL that a market crashes 38% from an all time high (looking at America, not the AEX). And all in 1 month...
4. We are living in the end time, biblical speaking. We are in the fourth cycle of the last 120th jubilee cycle. Read Leviticus 26 from verse 14 and on to see what I mean. We are seeing pestilence already (Covid-19), famine is following in a lot of countries already and it is estimated that millions of people will starve to death in the coming months and soon we will see the sword (war). YeHoVaH (the God of Abraham, Isaac, Jacob and my God) will make sure that everything will happen according to His will. He wants us to repent of our sins and turn to Him, our Father! He made this very clear by dieing for our sins (Yeshua = Jesus Christ) and come back to life again after three days! All that I am able to do now in the stockmarket, is not because I am good or a genius or whatever, because I am not. YHVH raises up who turns to Him! I am very grateful that He opened my eyes and ears just in time (May 2016)!
5. The FED/ECB/BOJ/whatever can do what they want, but it is not going to work. Everything is created by YeHoVaH and cycles will therefor do what they have to do. For me they are pointing down... Time is more important than price!
6. The move up since March 18 in the AEX and a little later in America, seems to be a bearmarket rally.
7. People have learned, in the last years, that the market will always go up. People don't know how to play a bearmarket when no man can push the market up as we have seen since 2009 (QE1, QE2, QE3 and whatever more the institutions of men tried to do)... The last real bearmarket was 2007 July - 2009 March. The perfect condition to make a lot of new and even 'experienced' people (who do not think for themselves) poor. Really sad...
What to do?
1. In 2017 and 2018 I bought some silver Maple Leaf coins. Knowing some 'bad weather' would come. I still think that silver and gold can be a good investment, but the time will tell if these precious metals will go up when the market goes down big. However, in the end, it is better to have some rice to eat when there is famine than silver coins...
2. Play some big waves with out of the money options (50-100 AEX point) with 3-6 months time before expiry date. In a crash wave as we have seen, people that buy their options on time (before the volatility index gets to panic values (30+) will do good business. However, the AEX still has its volatility index (VAEX) still at around 30. Options are still pricy...
3. To not be stuck with options and big volatility values, a turbo/speeder/booster short, can be a way to play the 'big short'. Buy it and let it run its course...
4. Sell the house, I have been saying for years that I forsee a housemarket crash. Go live with the parents or rent something...
5. Take your pension funds and go sit on it or invest it yourself because the companies that are investing for you will waste it in the coming years if you ask me...
To end this analysis:
1. What would be a good target to see at the big bottom in the future?
I would say the March 2009 low will be realistic... Around 200 AEX that is.
2. Is there a possibility we will still make a new high?
I am open to everything and only trade what I see, not what I think. Hard data (signals) are needed for me before I will open a position. The above scenario is my best guess at this moment.
3. Are we near a high before the next drop?
I think so yes. Again, hard data and my turn dates will tell the story.
Disclaimer: think for yourself, the above is my opinion and cannot be seen as investment advice.
