Dow Jones Testing Key Support – Bounce or Crash Ahead?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is currently testing a key rising trendline support, which has been a strong foundation for its uptrend since 2023. Holding this level could signal a continuation of the bullish momentum, while a breakdown may lead to a deeper correction. If the price fails to hold above this trendline, the next significant support lies around 41,000-40,000, a zone that previously acted as resistance and is now a psychological support level. In case of further weakness, the long-term trendline support around 38,000-39,000 could come into play, aligning with the Ichimoku cloud support.
For the bullish scenario to remain valid, DJIA needs to sustain above the rising trendline and reclaim recent highs. However, if sellers gain control and push prices lower, a broader pullback could unfold. Overall, the market remains in an uptrend as long as key support levels hold, but price action in the coming weeks will determine whether the index continues upward or undergoes a deeper correction.
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US30 trade ideas
Dow long term uptrend intact The Dow (US30) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since reaching an all-time high on 04th December 2024 the Dow index price action is consolidating in a sideways trading range.
The key trading level is at 42980, the previous consolidation zone and the rising support trendline. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 42980 level could target the upside resistance at 43800 followed by the 44080 and 44540 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 42980 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 42520 support level followed by 41820 (200 Day Moving Average).
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US30 Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for US30.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 43,381.39.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 43,680.64 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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US30 - analysispair is in downtrend lower low and lower highs.
and currently at the
In weekly time frame ,
pair is making double top formation indicates movement downwards
Resistance at 44050 is the potential short point as the MA 200 confluence the same point.
Trade plan short at 44098
SL:44687
TP1:43461
TP2:42926
Bullish :
Double top formation from the support
Fib level 0.5 respected.
since its a bearish trend , 1:1 long trade can be taken from to take a short trade once the price hits the resistance of 44113.
trade plan:long @43646
SL:43336
TP:43967
Dow Jones , daily time frame Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) – Daily Chart Analysis (Feb 28, 2025)
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Recent Downtrend: The price is in a corrective phase after reaching new highs.
Key Support at 41,739: This level has acted as a strong support in the past, making it crucial for price action.
Trendline Support: Below 41,739, there is a rising trendline that aligns around 40,500 - 41,000, which could act as the next demand zone.
2. RSI & Momentum Analysis
RSI at 38.70: The market is approaching oversold conditions, indicating possible exhaustion of selling pressure.
Bearish Momentum: The RSI is still trending lower, meaning further downside movement is possible before a bounce.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
43,300 (Current price level, where rejection could occur)
44,000 - 44,500 (Stronger resistance if price reverses upward)
Support:
41,739 (Major horizontal support)
40,500 - 41,000 (Trendline support zone)
4. Potential Trade Scenarios
📉 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
If price fails to hold 41,739, expect further downside toward the 40,500 - 41,000 zone.
Short Setup:
Entry: Below 41,700
Stop-loss: Above 42,000
Target: 40,500 - 41,000
📈 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability)
If price finds support at 41,739 and RSI starts reversing, a bounce back toward 43,000 - 44,000 is possible.
Long Setup:
Entry: Above 41,800
Stop-loss: Below 41,500
Target: 43,000 - 44,000
5. Conclusion & Strategy
Short-term bias: Bearish towards 41,739, with a possibility of dropping to 40,500.
Trade idea: Monitor for a break or bounce at 41,739, as it will dictate the next big move.
Risk management: Watch for fake breakouts and confirm trends with volume before entering trades.
US30 (Dow Jones) Probability Analysis – February 28, 2025
**Current Market Structure:**
- **Timeframe:** 30-Minute
- **Key Levels:**
- **Premium Zone:** 43,800 – 43,900
- **Equilibrium:** ~43,500
- **Discount Zone:** 43,050 – 43,130
- **Previous Day’s High (PDH):** 43,900 (strong high)
- **Previous Day’s Low (PDL):** 43,130 (weak low)
- **Break of Structure (BOS):** Confirmed bearish.
- **Change of Character (CHoCH):** Bearish near equilibrium.
- **Liquidity Levels:**
- **PWL (Previous Weak Low):** 43,360
- **PDL (Previous Day's Low):** 43,130
- **Weak Low at Discount Zone (~43,050)**.
---
**1️⃣ Bullish Entry Plan (Long Position)**
**Entry Criteria (Long)**
- **Ideal Entry Zone:** 43,050 – 43,130 (Discount Zone)
- **Confirmations Needed:**
- **Liquidity grab at the weak low (43,050).**
- **Bullish reversal signal** (Pin Bar, Engulfing Candle, or Order Block reaction).
- **CHoCH to the upside, confirming trend shift**.
**Entry Trigger**
- If price **wicks below PDL (43,130) and recovers strongly**, enter long.
**Stop Loss (SL)**
- **Below 43,000 (strong low).**
**Take Profit (TP)**
- **First TP:** 43,360 (PWL & previous structure resistance).
- **Final TP:** 43,500 – 43,600 (Equilibrium).
📈 **Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:3 or higher**.
---
**2️⃣ Bearish Entry Plan (Short Position)**
**Entry Criteria (Short)**
- **Ideal Entry Zone:** 43,360 – 43,500 (PWL & Equilibrium).
- **Confirmations Needed:**
- **Price must fail to break above 43,500 (Equilibrium).**
- **Bearish BOS on lower timeframes (15M, 5M).**
- **Liquidity grab above PWL (43,360) before a drop**.
**Entry Trigger**
- If price **retests PWL (43,360) and rejects strongly**, enter short.
**Stop Loss (SL)**
- **Above 43,550 (Previous CHoCH area).**
**Take Profit (TP)**
- **First TP:** 43,130 (PDL).
- **Final TP:** 43,050 (Discount Zone).
📉 **Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:4 or higher**.
---
**3️⃣ Neutral Strategy (Wait for Confirmation)**
- If price consolidates **between PDL (43,130) and PWL (43,360)**, avoid trading.
- Wait for a **liquidity grab or CHoCH before making a decision**.
**Trading Plan Summary**
| Setup | Entry Zone | SL | TP1 | TP2 | R:R |
|--------|----------|----|-----|-----|----|
| ✅ Long | 43,050 – 43,130 | Below 43,000 | 43,360 | 43,500 | 1:3+ |
| 🚨 Short | 43,360 – 43,500 | Above 43,550 | 43,130 | 43,050 | 1:4+ |
---
**Final Thoughts**
- **Bullish Bias:** If price sweeps **weak low (43,050) and shows strength**.
- **Bearish Bias:** If price **rejects equilibrium (43,500) and PWL (43,360).**
- **Avoid trading in the range (43,130 – 43,360)** until confirmation.
DJI - Dow Jones Industrial Target 40000sChart analysis can be simple.
We take our tools, surround them with rules and follow them.
The rules and the framework of the Medianlines are simple, but not easy to follow every time.
The Shiff-Fork catches the resistance and support very nicely. Especially at the Center-Line.
Above the Upper-Medianline-Parallel, at the extreme where the stretch became clear, price had a job to to do, to trade up to the Warning Line. But it failed twice so far.
When price fails to trade to the next line, comes back into the Fork, Chances are >90% that we go to the Center-Line. The first time, it failed (10% fail). The second time, with these market sentiment, I'm even more convinced to follow the rules.
Target at the Center-Line around 40'000ish.
US30 (Dow Jones) Probability Analysis – February 27, 2025
Current Market Structure:
- Timeframe: 30-Minutes
- Key Levels:
- Premium Zone: 43,800 – 43,900
- Equilibrium: ~43,550
- Discount Zone: 43,260 – 43,340
- Previous Day’s High (PDH): 43,900 (near weak high)
- Previous Day’s Low (PDL): 43,260 (strong low)
- Change of Character (CHoCH): Bullish near equilibrium.
- Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed downside moves.
---
1️⃣ Bullish Entry Plan (Long Position)
Entry Criteria (Long)
- Ideal Entry Zone:** 43,340 – 43,420 (Discount Zone)
- Confirmations Needed:
- CHoCH to the upside**, confirming shift in market structure.
- Liquidity grab at PWL (Previous Weak Low).
- Bullish rejection pattern** (Pin Bar, Engulfing, or Order Block reaction).
- Price must stay above PDL (43,260) and Discount Zone.
Entry Trigger
- If price **retests PWL (43,340) and holds**, enter long.
Stop Loss (SL)
- Below PDL (~43,250).
Take Profit (TP)
- **First TP:** 43,700 (Equilibrium zone).
- **Final TP:** 43,850 – 43,900 (Premium Zone & PDH).
📈 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:3 or higher.
2️⃣ Bearish Entry Plan (Short Position)
Entry Criteria (Short)
- **Ideal Entry Zone:** 43,800 – 43,900 (Premium Zone).
- Confirmations Needed:
- Liquidity grab above PDH (~43,900).
- Bearish rejection (Engulfing candle or BOS to downside).
- Price must fail to hold above PDH.
Entry Trigger
- If price *breaks PDH (43,900) but fails to hold*, enter short.
Stop Loss (SL)
- Above 43,950 (Strong High).
Take Profit (TP)
-First TP: 43,600 (Equilibrium).
- Final TP: 43,340 – 43,260 (Discount Zone & PDL).
📉 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:4 or higher
3️⃣ Neutral Strategy (Wait for Confirmation)
- If price **remains between Equilibrium (43,550) & Premium Zone (43,800)**, avoid trading.
- Wait for **clear BOS or liquidity grab before executing trades**.
Trading Plan Summary
| Setup | Entry Zone | SL | TP1 | TP2 | R:R |
|--------|----------|----|-----|-----|----|
| ✅ Long | 43,340 – 43,420 | Below 43,250 | 43,700 | 43,900 | 1:3+ |
| 🚨 Short | 43,800 – 43,900 | Above 43,950 | 43,600 | 43,260 | 1:4+ |
Final Thoughts
- **Bullish Bias:** If price holds above **PWL & Discount Zone**.
- **Bearish Bias:** If price **fails at PDH & Premium Zone**.
- **Avoid Choppy Market:** Wait for clear **BOS or liquidity grab**.
US30 sellOverall Trend:
The overall trend has been bullish, but there has been a breakout below the ascending trendline.
The price is currently retracing towards support zones.
Key Levels:
Main Resistance: Range between 45,208 - 45,300 (upper red zone)
Main Support: Range between 44,300 - 44,500 (lower red zone)
Important Mid-Level: Around 44,866
Trading Scenario:
After hitting resistance, the price has started a correction.
The highlighted green area marks a potential entry zone.
📉 Trading Signal:
🔹 Enter Short Position:
If the price pulls back to the 44,600 - 44,700 area and shows signs of bullish weakness, a short position could be considered.
🔹 Stop Loss:
Above the resistance zone at 45,208 (e.g., around 45,300)
🔹 Take Profit:
First level at 44,300
Second level at 43,663 (shown on the chart)
Third level at 43,140 if the downtrend continues
🔹 Risk Management:
The risk-to-reward ratio for this trade seems reasonable. Reassess the trade if the price breaks above 44,866.
✅ Conclusion:
Currently expecting a bearish correction, but if reversal candles or weakness in sellers are observed at support levels, there might be a chance for a trend change.
DOW pullback triggered by weak US consumer confidenceThe Dow (US30) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since reaching an all-time high on 04th December 2024 the Dow index price action is consolidating in a sideways trading range.
The key trading level is at 42980, the previous consolidation zone and the rising support trendline. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 42980 level could target the upside resistance at 43800 followed by the 44080 and 44540 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 42980 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 42520 support level followed by 41820 (200 Day Moving Average).
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DOW JONES Cup and Handle completed and eyes a new ATH.Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Inside this pattern, four Cup and Handle (C&H) formations have occurred with the most recent one, about to complete its Handle this week.
All such C&H patterns, rebounded to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back. As a result, our Target before May remains 46400.
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