Reversal in the DAXThis day we face inflation data in several euro zone countries, including Germany. In the American session, ECB member Isabel Schnabel will issue a statement. The German representative argues that rates should be maintained as they are at least until June, but it remains to be seen whether the presidency will heed the recommendations of the Executive Board. As early as February, she suggested that the long period of high inflation would force us to adopt a "stop-and-go" policy similar to that of the 1970s, promoting caution and not adjusting the ECB's policy stance prematurely. We will see if the German will change her mind once the German market regains its tone in the direction of economic growth.
If we focus on the chart, currently the DAX position (Ticker AT: GER40), is bearish, partly due to the poor industrial production data and the performance of the German market in general. As well as Germany's difficulty in selling to its key market which is the United States, as its exports have declined. On May 10 there was a bearish correction figure and signal, also signaled by the RSI, and it is true that it has been continuing during this week in a gradual way, possibly in anticipation of the ECB statements.
At this moment, it would be foreseeable for the index to return to its last bullish support in the 18277.38 zone if the market loses its positive tone. If the German market x-ray for the summer is more positive, there could be a rebound in the 18603 points zone and try to find again the highs at 18844 points. Currently the RSI is slightly oversold, and the price bell indicates a downward continuation as the bell has a very marked figure with a checkpoint well below the bullish support zone at 17950 points.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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GER40 trade ideas
Trade Idea DAx 14/05/2024Le Dax est Bullish pour un moment, nous devons donc chercher des positions long dans un premier temps.
Le FVG Daily ci-dessous est également intéressant pour le prix.
Donc il faut agire aec prudence et rester dans les HTF
Elliott Wave Intraday on DAX Shows Incomplete Bullish SequenceShort Term Elliott Wave in DAX suggests that the Index ended wave (4) pullback at 17626.54. From there, it rallies higher in wave (5) as a nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 18226.32 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 17795.96. The Index then nested higher within wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 18235.80 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 17875.98. Wave (iii) higher ended at 18845.86 and wave (iv) pullback is proposed complete at 18706.08.
Expect the Index to rally higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Potential target for wave (v) is 123.6 – 161.8% external retracement of wave (iv). This area comes at 18877 – 18930. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 4.25.2024 low before another high again in wave ((v)) to end wave 1. Then it should do a larger degree correction in wave 2 to correct cycle from 4.19.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 17626.54 low stays intact, expect any pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has shifted from a neutral trend to a bullish one and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 18,789, now well above the previous VWAP of 18,157. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,493 and 18,790, respectively. The RSI has significantly increased to 72, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price rising to 8,426, now above the previous VWAP of 8,181. Support has increased to 7,888, while resistance has risen to 8,475. The RSI has escalated to 81, reflecting a continued strong build-up of bullish sentiment.
Wall Street has shifted from a neutral to a bullish trend and remains in an impulsive phase, with the price rising notably to 39,529, which is well above the previous VWAP of 38,448. The support and resistance levels have adjusted to 37,371 and 39,529, respectively. The RSI has risen to 68, signalling an increase in bullish momentum.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend but has transitioned back to an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing slightly to 82.47, now below the previous VWAP of 84.95. Support has adjusted lower to 80.61, while resistance has decreased to 89.29. The RSI has remained nearly stable at 34, indicating continued bearish momentum.
Gold has shifted from a positive to a neutral trend and continues to consolidate, albeit with an upwards bias, with the price increasing slightly to 2,351, now above the previous VWAP of 2,329. Support has adjusted slightly higher to 2,282, while resistance has decreased to 2,376. The RSI has increased to 57, indicating a cooling in sentiment.
EUR/USD has shifted from a bearish to a bullish trend and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.0774, now above the previous down-sloping VWAP of 1.0724. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0642, while resistance has risen to 1.0806. The RSI has increased slightly to 55, indicating a build-up of bullish pressure.
GBP/USD has shifted from a bearish to more of a sideways neutral trend and is consolidating ahead of a potential shift to a bullish trend, with the price at 1.2533, holding above the VWAP of 1.2494. Support has adjusted to 1.2381, and resistance has increased to 1.2608. The RSI remains stable at 51, reflecting a balance in sentiment.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing notably to 155.82, now above the previous VWAP of 155.25. Support has adjusted higher to 152.33, while resistance has increased slightly to 158.16. The RSI has increased to 57, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment.
DAX 40 keeps building higherGlobal equities are back pursuing new highs in force. European indices have been standing out in the past week with the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and EURO STOXX 50 all beating the performance of US equities. The outlook seems brighter in Europe as growth has remained positive in the first quarter of the year and that has been driving the push higher.
The DAX 40 has encountered some pushback at 18,800 but the bias remains strongly higher. This week we’ll have second readings for German CPI and Euro Zone growth which could provide some moves if they deviate from the preliminary readings, but other than that the economic calendar is pretty empty in Europe. Momentum may continue to be driven by expectations of lower rates in Europe as markets are currently pricing in an 84% chance of a 25 bps cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) at its meeting on June 6 according to data from Reuters. If these expectations remain high over the coming weeks the path of least resistance for European indices is likely to be higher.
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GER30 Long Opportunity According To R level
According To Fibo Retracment
According To Fibo Extenssion
DAX may have some more upsideGerman DAX has pulled back to the 50d sma and 38% retrace of the move up of the last few months (since last time it touched 50d sma). Looks like we may get another leg higher despite the clear lack of supportive fundamentals/geopolitics. Think we see 18600-19000 before a bigger effort to correct.
Long 17800 tgt 18800 wroong below 17400.
GER30 IS STILL PLAYINGOUT AS I PREDICTEDHighlights : German 30 index
Prediction : Bullish
Longevity : 3 weeks
Targets : PSTG 1 & 2
Rejection Zone hit : 100% Retest and hit more than two times
Current Situation: Waiting for PSTG 2 to be hit, then, again, waiting for the pattern to be complete.
#DAX at a record ALL TIME HIGHand Yet this move is far from over
My final log target is still 8000 points away.
We are witnessing #Fiat melt away in front of our eyes.
Are you actually making money is the real question?
#gold #silver #bitcoin
DE40 is showing crab pattern.DE40 chart is showing completion of crab pattern.
With the help of crab pattern we have identified the PRZ at which we can observe divergence which is also indication of trend reversal so we can take entry at the break of previous HL.
GER40Selling Ger40. this is an extreme trade idea please do not take it unless you understand the logic. looks great to me for a setup to the downside . lets see whow this plays out
DAX H4 | Bullish momentum to extend?The DAX (GER30) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher to extend the bullish momentum.
Buy entry is at 18,486.50 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 18,400.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 18,711.28 which is a resistance that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level.
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GER40 /German 40 Index - Near To a Strong Resistance ZoneGER40 /German 40 Index - Near To a Strong Resistance Zone
Ger40 is testing a strong monthly zone increasing the chances of a bearish correction over the next few days.
It is a very risky trade as we still do not have any clear confirmation.
However, given the importance of this area, it is likely that the bears may rise in number by pushing the price down.
Usually, this is an area of high importance because the bulls take the profits and the bears begin to sell.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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DAX40 - Short PotentialDAX40 H4
Something new added to the watchlist here as we see DAX40 index fund trading around ATH price. This ATH price also ties in nicely with our 18500 psychological price. A good area of confluence.
We have also extended in excess of 600 points to the upside, without any real corrective play. Eyes peeled for some price action exhaustion around this price.
Heading into pullback resistance?DAX 40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level.
Pivot: 18,539.83
1st Support: 18,239.12
1st Resistance: 18,700.00
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GER40FT Bollinger Bands Brakeout
Technical Analysis for GER40 (DAX/GER40) Bollinger Bands Breakout:
The GER40 (DAX/GER40) is showing signs of a potential breakout from the Bollinger Bands, indicating increased volatility and potential trading opportunities.
Key Levels:
Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 18832.01. This level represents a price point where the upward movement of GER40 may encounter selling pressure or face resistance.
Support: The support level is noted at 17962.2. This level indicates a price point where the downward movement of GER40 may find buying interest or support.
Buy Entry:
Traders may consider entering a long position in GER40 as it breaks out above the upper Bollinger Band.
A buy entry could be initiated once the price convincingly breaks above the upper band, confirming bullish momentum.
Confirmation from other technical indicators or price action signals could further strengthen the buy signal.
Continuation of bullish scenario for the fifth waveEsteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace.
I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques.
May my analysis be a valuable asset to your business journey, and I remain sincerely yours,
Mr. Nobody
2024-05-06 - a daily price action after hour update - dax
overall market comment
I was clearly wrong with the bearish reading and bulls got another strong day and closed at the highs. Strong buying signal going into tomorrow for at least a bit more upside but we got so far, there is no reason why can’t make another couple of points to retest the all time highs now, where I expect sellers to step up again and bulls to take profits.
dax
comment: Bear channel clearly broken, no ifs and buts anymore.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18836
bull case: Bulls got it. Measured move target from the big bull spike from EU open is around 18500. Bulls next target is 18400 and if bears do not come out guns blazing tomorrow, we will print 18500 with ease. Invalid below 18250.
bear case: Bears nowhere to be seen and it’s unreasonable to think they will just show up tomorrow and begin a sell-off. The best they can hope for is to stop the rally at 18400 and transition into a trading range 18300 - 18400 until bulls begin to take profits again. They have a very slight chance of 18420 begin bigger resistance because that was last weeks high and there are many trapped bulls who could gladly sell out of their positions but that’s a weak argument at best.
short term: Sideways to up
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024.
trade of the day: Just long from EU open. No bear bar in sight. Can close longs after bar 49 but you have to get long again on bar 55 because 52,53,54 showed a clear support level and 54 closed on it’s high and 55 was follow through which broke above the 15m 20ema and market never touched it again until US close.
Falling to 38.2% Fibonacci supportThe DAX (DE40) could fall towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support. Could this index potentially bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance?
Pivot: 17,737.30
1st Support: 17,004.20
1st Resistance: 18,534.90
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
