GER40 trade ideas
Ger40(dax) sellGer40 you can get selling opportunities this week, monthly candle also may close bearish. Selling make more sense . Weekly close bearish probability is 65% you can combine it with your set-up in lower timeframes.
GER30We looking for selling opportunities as the market is now on a reversal of the previous bullish trend that it ended resulting in selling opportunities|1H TIMEFRAME
22.9.24After the interest rates, price is looking ot continue stronger. Keys measures of inflation and apperances from Fed officials will be watched this week to show the health of the economy.
Price on both pairs have created new highs after its rally but could be tested if this weeks data fails to support expectations
Us30: Price in an overall bullish market had broken highs on Monday and continued to make newer highs after the rate cut on Wednesday. After a strong bullish week absolutely smashing past previous months highs, I'd like to see price trade past or atleast to Thursdays highs of 42178.06. However, I will like to see if price falls to 41851.82
Ger40: Price had traded higher in to new highs after reaching Tuesday supply zone and continuing higher later in the traded day on Wednesday. Price overall reached old highs after its overall retracement and created new highs. Price seems to look like it has lost steam as it couldnt close past previosu week and month highs, so will ike to see if and what price will do if it falls to 18703.8. If it were to continue bullish I will be targeting 19050.1
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: New ath but market rejected it with -300+ points. Bulls are still inside nested bull wedges and a big bull channel on the weekly/monthly chart. I favor bulls as long as the current bull wedge is alive but we could test down to 18500 on Monday. Bulls should not let it get below 18400. Above 19000 I expect another ath and targets above are 19100/19200.
Quote from last week:
comment: Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week.
comment : Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade.
current market cycle: big trading range
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls are slightly favored since we are inside nested bull wedges or a bigger broad bull channel, depending on how you want to draw it. Does it matter? No. We are also in a trading range inside the given key levels and that does not change how you trade the current patterns either. Bulls made a lower high last week and a higher high. As long as the lower high holds, bulls are favored for more upside. Should you buy 18720? It’s not unreasonable but Friday was quad witching and we closed at the low. I’d rather wait for bulls to come around on Monday before buying. We could touch the bull trend line around 18500/18600 before reversing but I do think we will retest at least 18900. My most insane upside target currently is 20900 but until we have a weekly close above 19400, it’s a waste of time thinking more than 2 minutes about it. Trade patterns that are valid and until they are clearly broken.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears rejected 19000 by 300 points again and the big questions is, will they get follow through selling on Monday and can they push below the bull trend line out of the bull wedge? I highly doubt that. It’s possible but unlikely. Market will probably spent more time inside the wedge before we break out by going sideways or below, once it’s contracted enough. Anything above 19100 would show great weakness by the bears and a possible giving up for 19300 or higher. On the weekly chart the highest weekly close was 18906 and bears need to keep it that way. Any weekly close above 19000 opens the door for higher prices.
Invalidation is above 19100.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18699 and now we are at 18720. High was 19044 and that outlook could not have been more perfect. Nailed the long above 18750 and the rejection above 19000. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Removed the bear gap and added the insane potential measured move to 20900. Don’t bet on that.
Shorts into the potential buysHello traders,
A potential ''simple'' play is shaping up on GER40.
It doesn't mean when PA tapped into a new ATH and sells of, its meant to be the top.
However, PA made a huge inpulse and right now it's forming its larger correction before the potential next leg to the upside.
PA is forming an expanding right now.
- Weekly bullish pinbar close (still bullish but positioned well)
- Daily retraced quite well (engulfing --> evening star formation)
- 4H is clear (impulsive move)
-1H --> entry plan: looking for a clear 3-touch continuation into the previous ''marked'' lows that has been broken.
Targeting the first point of inflection at minimum with a potential to the value area.
I've used the fibonacci as a guidance, never as a confluence factor.
However, it's healthy to give a .50 pullback after such rally
Germany 30 SellI Sell the Germany 30. Sl and Tp on the chart.
Now i just wait and see!
Note: I see this selling for days.
DAX 2HThe price has reached a resistance zone and has shown a good reaction. Around this time, you can enter the Sell transaction and earn a good profit.
DAX breaking above this Resistance can target 20000DAX hit yesterday Resistance 1 (the September 03 High) but got rejected and failed to close the candle above it. Naturally, the market is reacting with weakness today and so far a red 1D candle.
As you realize, the key here is to close that candle above Resistance 1, which is what happened in the middle of the previous Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. After testing the Resistance at the time on January 29 2024, the index turned sideways for a few days, until it finally closed above it and started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg.
All this time the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting, just as it did recently on September 06. If those conditions are met, we expect another run towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (where the April 01 Higher High was priced). Our Target is slightly below it at 20000.
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SHORT DAX/GER40 - entry price NOWTeam, GER30 has enter our short position,
STOP LOSS AT 18991.70
SHORT PRICE AT 18934-18926 RANGES
TARGET 1 AT 18872.4
TARGET 2 18770.6
PLEASE NOTE: once the price reach first target - take partial and bring stop loss to 18858.7
H4 Choch Bounce 200ma wait 1D Closed Above Entry Price.H4 Choch Bounce 200ma wait 1D Closed Above Entry Price.
Friday will Choch Red in Smaller TF H1/m15 that flip back to Green We will Entry from ChoCh buy Smaller TF Wait tomorrow.
Secret Ratio is 1.5
Losing SteamIt is the 3rd consecutive time that we didn't reach a new top. This may indicate a desire of the market to correct, i.e. to take out some risk or to have a snooze at least.
Thus I assume that there is no big risk on the upside.
DAX-LEADER-SWING4YR:Broke the 4 year Previous high and retested the level, hence and created a 1-2 RTM on 7 weeks Timeframe:
7W: Previous RTM, has been broken and major zones for additions are 7 Months Previous high and 18 Months Previous High
DAX H4 | Potential bullish bounce off overlap supportDAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,652.31 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,500.00 which is a level that sits under the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap support.
Take profit is at 18,972.46 which is a swing-high resistance.
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SHORT THE DAX AT MARKET PRICE 18865Team, we are shorting DAX at market price 18865
STOP LOSS at 18930.20
Target 1 - 18826 - bring stop loss to BE once the price is reached
Target 2 - 18771
Target 3 - 18724
DAX: Aggressive uptrend for the rest of the year.DAX maintains a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.112, MACD = 108.800, ADX = 23.465) as it is extending a rebound aon the 1D MA50, after an August 5th rebound on the 1D MA200 as well. Successive holds of those levels suggest that the index has already started the new Bullish Wave of the 2022 Channel Up. We can target at least the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 20,250) as it was the level that priced the last HH.
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Germany DAX30 buy analysisAs the price didn't react to the area of value in 1H TF, So I think it is possible that the price come down again to touch our entry but it should NOT close below the low.
I'm waiting for a lower candle shadow that trigger our entry and then go up again.
we can set an order or wait for price to come to our zone and then look for a CHoCH in lower TF and then find an entry with more confidence.
Let's see what happens...
