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HK50 trade ideas

Patience - don't chase the high price - 2800 TrackerfundI expect the pull back to continue this week and retrace to the yellow support level at 20210. No rush as this is going to be a slow bull run compared to the 2018 where it rally too fast and fizzle out just as fast.... I believe more monetary stimulus will be unveiled in the coming weeks/month and the 2025 Chinese New Year is an important timeline for the government to dish out good news - shore up their confidence to spend........
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
After the smoke and fire settled down a little, still can buy ?For those who can understand Chinese and listen to the social media (live streaming, videos, shorts,etc) on Douyin or Weibo, you will be richly entertained. In this age of social media, it is scary how a content creator who has no background of investing or worse, does not invest in stocks himself and yet has the cloud and power to rally his followers to go "all-in" aka show hand in the China stock market. Instead of listening to all these entertainment , the chart is a much quieter place. All you need to do is watch and not attempt to pre-empt the market moves. On a bigger picture, we can already see there is a resistance at 22, 754 price level , having the price resisted twice previously. Therefore, if one has bought into this index , say 2800 Tracker fund , then you can expect some form of profit taking. So, if the intention of the CCP government is a slow bull and not to repeat the history of 2015 where it died down and crashed the dream of millions of punters/investors including institutional investors, then how they release the stimulus is KEY. There will be profit taking along the way, this slow bull trend. Local government is bleeding without land sales and with the property market is crippling, they do need fresh funds to pay salaries and keep the operation going. Therefore, they will be collecting money from the stock market from time to time, suppressing the much anticipated bull market that everyone has been eagerly awaiting. .... They cannot afford a parabolic move like 23 Sept when the QE measures was announced. The faster it rally, the faster it falls and that would not rekindle the consumers confidence. They would feel played out by their very own government and silent protest will not spend as the government wants so badly. So, it has to tame this wild bull ride up the market slowly.....and manage their meeting and announce the plans clearly without causing too much confusion to the market watchers. We have 2 months left for 2024 and China in a sense is running out of time to meet its GDP growth. For face value sake , they have to deliver what they set out to do. Those fund managers who are still sitting on the fence have to decide fast when balancing their portfolio at year end as well. They are pressured to answer to the investors who are paying annual management fees and seeing other funds with China inclusion performing better than their own. That is the dilemma that all concerned parties are facing. Everyone is walking on tightrope and need to keep the bigger goal in mind. As investors for the long term, we should not be FOMO-ing no matter how loud the party music is and be smart enough to study the fundamentally strong companies and buy them when undervalued........Predicting short term market moves seems exciting on a day by day basis but very few get it right , so stop wasting your time and invest in wisely
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
Markets collapse: investors flee China!The Chinese stock market is experiencing a sharp decline following a strong rally in recent weeks. On October 8, the Hang Seng Index (#HSI on FreshForex) plummeted by 9.56%, reaching 20,893 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, dropped even further — by 10.9%. The CSI 300 Index of mainland China, which started the day with an 11% gain, ended with a nearly 8% loss. The main reason for the drop is growing investor dissatisfaction with the lack of new economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government. Expectations were high, especially after the National Development and Reform Commission's press conference, where economic support was promised but no concrete actions were provided. This has heightened uncertainty in the market. What has been done previously: - In late September, the Chinese government announced plans to strengthen economic stimulus, promising fiscal injections and support for the real estate sector. - The People's Bank of China lowered reserve requirements for banks, freeing up 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for the market. - There are plans to lower mortgage rates and the down payment for second-home purchases to a record low of 15%. Bottom line: The market is waiting for action. Given the history of sharp declines in the Chinese market, such as in 2015 when the CSI 300 Index lost 40% in two months, the Chinese government cannot afford a similar outcome and may direct efforts to strengthen investor confidence. Since mid-September, #HSI has experienced a steady bullish trend, and our analysts believe these trends could repeat.
HSI:HSILong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bear Market Continuation - 2444 days and countingChina remains weak, don't fall into the trap of longing here. The HSI has been in a downtrend (bear market) for almost 7 years. Given the ongoing property crisis, it would be very dangerous to go long here. I will not be buying the dip in the ongoing bear market, not until I am confident the low is in and the US elections are over. The time to buy the bounce was the breakout of the parallel channel but I have taken profits on my BABA and PDD trades - please refer to my chart on PDD which was an easy long trade. But now I am back on the sidelines remaining patient. It is very common to see a Flat correction with a powerful B wave and a weak C wave. This is essentially a Lower Low and a Lower High (Wave C). I think this move will be unwind over the coming weeks, particularly as we head into the elections. Both parties will be threatening stronger tariffs on China and once the elections are out of the way and the rhetoric dies down, it will be better to revisit the China equity trade from a long position. For now, I will continue to remain on the sidelines and anticipate continuation of the bear market. Not financial advise!
HSI:HSI
by NoFOMO_
Hang Seng may rebound intraday, but likely short coveringThe HSI:HSI saw a strong sell off yesterday likely due to traders locking in their profits. This wave of rally is not over yet and I think near term may see slight rebound in an attempt to conduct a corrective rally before going for the 3rd leg of the corrective cycle. Momentum on the mid term and long term remain intact, only the short term shows a peak and decline. Support is at 20,511 or 19,828. Long term target is at 27,000
TVC:HSI
by William-trading
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% TodayHang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% Today As shown on the Hang Seng Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen), prices have fallen by almost 10% since trading began today, and the session is not over yet. According to Reuters, bearish sentiment was driven by uncertain statements from Chinese officials regarding economic stimulus measures. This has raised doubts in the stock market about Beijing's ability to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of its most severe downturn since the global pandemic, aiming to achieve 5% growth. Additionally, the decline may have been accelerated by a cascade of long position closures, which were opened in mid-September when the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) was in an upward trend. Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen): → The upward trend (marked in blue) is still intact, although the price is now near the lower boundary, posing a real risk of a break. → The price failed to hold above the 22,700 level, which could act as future resistance. → Support may come from the psychological level of 20,000 points and the September 30 low near 20,630. It’s possible that the lower boundary of the blue channel and the support area between 20,000 and 20,630 could help bulls offset some of today's significant decline. However, for a sustainable continuation of the upward trend on the Hang Seng Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen), the market will need clear evidence of economic stimulus from Chinese authorities. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
2
HSI significant pull back! FX:HKG33 Look at 1H chart movement together with the MACD & KDJ indicator, the histogram for MACD line & signal line is getting weaker (you can see both indicators curve seems lower than the previous wave). We should monitor. marked the time zone where the index turned bearish for the 1H chart. There was no re-entry position as trading in Asia time zone. The significant pull-back continues when market re-open here. It's 10% pull back this morning. Well, this is a good chance to look at for a better re-entry level. However, we should be cautious to avoid catching falling knives 🗡 what we see from the 1H chart MACD & KDJ both are on the downtrend level/bearish red zone. However, we can look at the support level at 21580. If the index stays above this level then the uptrend is still intact. Otherwise, we could expect a more significant pull-back (cross-check with longer tf chart 4H,8H). For shorter 1H tf swing trade check the 8H Chart for support/resistance level Find support level at 21500-21700 and resistance level 22000 -22300 It has been climbing too fast and taking a break now. Personal POV, prefer the movement slow and steady forming a stable staircase; more sustainable. Happy trading everyone! A pull-back is healthy for taking a breather.
H
by ChenQianYu
Too early to arrive at the party! Sharing my trading idea and experience for FX:HKG33 From previous post, the 1H chart has been bullish. I have taken the profit and thereafter trying to find re-entry position. However, without checking the shorter time frame 30m, 15m it turns bearish for the shorter time frame. Re-entered at 22500. As you can see from the chart. It's is a big Ouchhh! 😂 Well, was looking at the longer time frame of 4H chart & D chart showing the index continues to be bullish. (Question to myself: But on hindsight - isn't the longer tf chart based from the shorter tf movement?) Hmmmm.....well let's see. But this could cause the short position opportunities. Nonetheless, the party is there and I guess just have to wait little longer and hope it won't be too longer. This is going to eat into trading cost for the daily finance charge. :) Wish the party continue! (with the recent stimulus news and action) While waiting, let's zen with 📖 🍵 Good luck everyone!
HLong
by ChenQianYu
Narrow Escape! Trust what you trust.FX:HKG33 Entered too early before the pullback. Has to hold over the trading closed day. Was intended to SL the positions if the downtrend continue. However, the market reopen with strong bullish volume. The short time frame (tf) turned uptrend and the index gap-up. However, the MACD + KDJ showing uptrend for 1H chart. Hence, decided to continued to hold the position. ∴ Continue bullish for HSI based on W chart and try to look at Long position for 1-3 weeks tf. This ain't a get-rich-quick scheme, folks. We're just here to chat, not make deals. Disclaimer: The information provided here is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular financial instrument. Individual circumstances and risk tolerance should be considered when making investment choices."
HLong
by ChenQianYu
2
Is a Hang Seng Revival on the Horizon?The Hong Kong Index has faced challenging years since reaching its all-time high in 2018. The downtrend accelerated in 2021, bringing the index to a low of around 15,000. The subsequent reversal aligned neatly with horizontal resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the bears were not finished yet. Indeed, 2023 also saw a continued downtrend. However, and this is crucial, the index did not make a new low. Instead, the decline halted at the strong 15,000 support level. In early 2024, a significant break above the falling trend line was observed at the end of April. The correction that followed confirmed the broken trend line, suggesting that this breakout is genuine and indicates a long-term shift in trend. September began with a higher low, followed by a powerful surge above the 20,000 level for the first time in over a year. This sequence of events suggests the potential beginning of a long-term bull trend, with the possibility of the index reclaiming the 23,000 level by 2025. For those looking to initiate a long-term buy position, there are two key levels to watch: 19,500, the former resistance level, and 18,500, which now serves as strong support.
Editors' picks
HSI:HSILong
by Mihai_Iacob
10
HK50 short ideas (short-term)HK has had a strong rebound. I hope traders are enjoying the profit or dividend payouts. However, the November month usually comes with bare movements (check the last 2-3 years). A retracement is also needed from the long downtrend breakout. Wait for your retracement confluences to enter. I suggest you take partial profit and add a sell position @22 600 and TP @20 190. I am expecting setup 1 but setup 2 is also probable. Remember to not over leverage your open positions and practice good risk management on this.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by Fumba
2
Hang Seng - resistance reached I believe the Hang Seng has now reached local resistance and all the late comers trying to long Chinese equities now will get caught out. I have closed out of most of my Chinese positions. I went long on the breakout of the descending parallel channel. Now that we have reached the golden pocket, I’m playing it cautiously. Profit has been locked and I’m using trailing stop loss on the remaining positions. I fully expect us to take out the low one last time. Don’t ask me when, I don’t have a crystal ball. But I was one of the very few who went long months back. Now it’s time to derisk. Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
HSI:HSI
by NoFOMO_
Hang Seng skyrockets on news and rumours of stimulusProperty and technology companies showed some of the strongest reactions to this week’s news, up on average 7% and 7.3% respectively. Forecasts for most major Chinese tech companies are broadly optimistic and analysts had recently noted the disconnect between these and the actual prices of various shares. As for USDCNH, there’s clear saturation here from Bollinger Bands and the slow stochastic and the price has reached a new extreme, so immediate continuation is questionable. 20,000 seems to have been broken clearly for now, but the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement just below this might make it an important short-term support if there’s a retracement. 22,800 – January 2023’s high – seems like an extremely aggressive target. It’d be unlikely to see the price continue its recent momentum to reach there immediately but it’s possible over the next few weeks or months depending on earnings and, crucially, confirmed details of further stimulus. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by Michael_Stark_Exness
CHINA GOING FOR IT! Until Christmas? #BlowoffTop and Recession!Breakout and retest for RSI, China breakingout after 6 long years. This will have implications on every market, they were waiting for the FED to pull the trigger and now they can go. Game on! #JD is going, Commoditties will go for it, except #oil maybe. But more important, #Bitcoin will have the #BLOWOFFTOP I was looking for. That´s the News GOODS... The BAD News is, Recession or Crisis after it. December or March 25´as late.
HSI:HSILong
by PickleBiit