HANG SENG HONG KONG entering primary wave 3 upHSI:HSI
HSI seems to have finished primary wave 2 down. Primary wave up should lift the index to around 45,000 in about 2 years from now. HSI:HSI
HK50 trade ideas
Hang Seng Index may be bearish in coming 6 monthsWhen checking the Hang Seng Index HSI monthly chart, you can see the HSI has finished the wave 1 to 5 and starts to go from wave A - C. HSI is now testing the strong resistance at aound 29,000 to 29,100. If this resistance cannot be breakthrough, it is likely that HSI will start to go in wave C. According to the Fib, the first target will be 22843 which is 0.5 level of Fib extension. If the bearish force won't stop at this point, it may test the 0.68 level, that means 20331.
Wait for an accumulated 30% drop and BUY at 20286.9 for HSIThe recent drop for HSI started on 20 Jan 2020 at 29174.9.
It would be a good level and good narrative to buy after seeing it dropped for 30% or -8,888 from the last top.
Buy at 20286.9, accumulate below 23631.5.
We would expect the market to stabilize and have a rally before US Election 2020.
Hang Seng - correction finishing?I posted a bearish chart of the Hang Seng back in January that has played out pretty well so far. I reckon that this one might have another leg down before a decent rally or resumption of the uptrend but there is a bit of confluence for that 78.2 fib retracement level too......
HONG KONG 50~DOWN TREND CHANNEL~WEEKLY 0786BOUNCE UP THEN
(1) EITHER BREAK UP OF YELLOW RESISTANCE
(2) OR BOUNCE DOWN FROM YELLOW RESISTANCE
Hang Seng...Wave "3" of "C" done?Hello Traders,
as I mentioned per my last analysis, Hang Seng declined into the target-range of ~21337 area (intraday low @ 21139) and reversed. It has met the green rectangle I have drawn at chart as a possible target area!
At the low @ 21139, waves ((C))=((A))! So, a first leg (?) of decline could be done and a recovery short term might be underway. Where are the targets for this view! Let`s check it out!
Based on the monthly timeframe, there is no resistance at chart, `cause this month's candle was a bearish one with not one level to call as a resistance zone. The market has been sold-off in a manner, never seen before!
As to note at the weekly chart, the divergence between price and STOCH is clear to observe! This has been going on for quite a while now. More interesting to observe is the structure of the last leg down. It looks like not done, for now, so a possible countertrend might be underway. It could be a wave „4“! This possible wave „3“ of „C“ has expanded further than the FibExtension of 2! So, if this was wave „3“, a wave „4“ of the same degree is underway and should retrace a 0.382 Fibonacci of the wave „3“ decline. This ranges into the price territory of 23781. Depending on when and if this price range will be met, it would coincide with the middle line of the trend channel (dotted blue) and could be a favorable resistance level! More bullish potential exists!
Note the open gap at this price level! Once this move is done, another leg of decline would bring HS to fresh new lows!
While the daily chart, to my view, did not spot other wave patterns, I will focus my analysis at the weekly for the coming week. If something interesting happens or wave patterns will show a clear structure, I will update the chart asap!
Have a great weekend and stay healthy.
Protect yourself from the coronavirus!
Best wishes....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng...London`s fog!Hello Traders,
to count a chart is sometimes a challenge! You think you are on the right path most of the time and the picture seams cristal clear.
Then, suddenly, some unexpected happens, and your view is like watching through London´s fog!
This is how I feel now!
The past two days, I try to figure out, what is going on with Hang Seng, and the bullish picture I had, has got some cracks. So while I am not sure about the big-picture, I want to approach the possible count in steps!
So, let`s begin.
Based on the monthly chart we are able to recognize that a „big-change“ of trend could be underway.
The drop from the ATH @ 33484 shows a clear „wave-overlapping“ between a possible wave „I“ high and a possible wave „IV“, `cause it dropped into the price territory of wave „I“ what is a clear „knock-out“ of the Elliottwave rules. So the odds become greater, that a possible wave (I) or (A) of Supercycle-degree has ended at this point. The decline since `til now is a „three-down“which implies a corrective structure.
From a Fibonacci view, a 0.382 level (@ 24771) was broken by the last leg of decline in the past week. Note that the weekly close was below this area, which is to me important to view!
Measuring the „three-down, wave equality is achieved at 21336.7. So plenty of room to go downside!
Based on the monthly chart, we need to get a close above this month candle high, what is @ 26805 and the candle must be „green“, i. e. bullish, to apply a short term change of trend!
View the weekly chart we are able to observe a „divergence“ by the STOCH and price. Note, that STOCH did not change it`s declining trend to the upside, so, here too, there is much room to decline, (the green box shows the possible stopping range based on a monthly chart)!
Again, measuring the last leg of decline from the possible wave ((B)) to Friday`s low, HS closed above the 1.618 Fib-Extension of a possible wave „Y“ of a „W“-X“-“Y“ or „A“-“B“-“C“ correction. Again, the obvious „support-range“ with the green rectangle!
On the upside, there is much potential to close the open gap from 26146-25134.
The daily chart shows a massive change of trend intraday, which should lead to the conclusion, that a first leg of „selling-panic“ has come to an end short term. As long as Friday`s low keeps valid, a possible area of advance could be at the 0.382 Fibo @ 25059, which is close to the open gap, based on the weekly view! More bullish recovery potential exists! Note, that STOCH has change the short-term trend to the upside and crosses its the signal line up!
For this view, the low @ 24117.90 must be valid!
Be patient, stay tuned...
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
HSI rebound target
First Target 26000
2nd Target26600
3rd Target 27100
And our Final Target 27600
Cut Loss: Break 24800
Hang Seng.... A silver lining?Hello Traders,
today Hang Seng gaped to the upside, closed it immediately and run up to a close @25392! It left a green daily candle at chart, which could give more buying arguments in the coming days. If this, so it will occur, is just countertrend? Let`s check the chart!
As I mentioned at my past analysis, a target range for HS could be around the 25000 area, where wave a=c! That`s what occurs during the session on March 09! Today`s bounce could be a first hint, that HS will countertrend the first leg down. So, as long as the low @ 24948 (intraday low) and 25040 (closing price) are valid we check the upside potential. Note the open gap, left by trading on March 06-09; 26146-25134). This gap could be filled during the coming sessions, but this is not required!
From a candlestick-pattern, we probably can argue for a „morning-star“, created by the latter three candles at the chart. If so, HS will retrace a good portion of the decline. Note the open gap`s at the chart (February 24 and 21)! Note the red trendline @ 25976, what is resistance area!
On the other hand. Any decline below Friday`s low @ 25040 (closing price) could open the door to more selling pressure and another leg of panic!
As before! I recommend you to let hands of the market. Don`t ruin your trading accounts. This is exactly what could happen at these days!
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Fear cannot block my way up! HSI CALL!
HSI only breaks the previous bottom a little bit while the US market drops 15% and alot more around the globe!
another round of 4 trillion money printing from China and another round of rate dropping coming soon from the Fed will eventually return the whole.
Here, from the chart, Weekly!
assume
BOLD GREEN C = 1.618A and
BOLD BLUE 5 = (1 to 3) x 1.618
light blue is wave 12345 where 5 is in bold blue which is the points from 1-3 times 1.618
both target are around HSI 32800 which is about 7000 points above current level.
There'll be a time study idea indicating a top on OCT(probably 29th like the old date) this year.
The HSI Inverted Weekly Chart - BearishWhile everyone is trying catch a bottom, the HSI Inverted Weekly Chart gives a bearish view on the Hang Seng Index.
The candles from the last three weeks are bearish:
1) A Reversal Red Candle
2) A Gap with Solid Long Red Candle
3) Green Candle with Long Wick
In the coming two weeks it may hit and test the weekly support line at around 25180.
Let's see how the market reacts to the support level.
If selling is strong, it may break below 24000.
Hang Seng...More Bears to come?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng had one more down-week and closed @ 26146.7, after a weekly low of 26038.4! From a candlestick analysis, there is a „bullish-inverted-hammer“ to observe! But handle this pattern with patience!
At the weekly chart, you will observe that the decline from the possible wave „z“ high @29174.9 looks not as done. So the first leg of the decline could be a wave „a“ and the countertrend that followed a wave „b“ that ended @ 28055.6. So the second leg down is a wave „c“ that retraced a 0.618 Fibonacci of wave „a“ what is in rare cases all of the declines, but this is not required! So a common target range for HS if it drops below Friday`s low @ 26038.4 is wave equality @ 25032, where wave „a“=“c“! Such behavior would occur with a drop below the lower boundary of the possible triangle idea I mentioned at my last analysis!
At the daily chart, there is to notice, that HS reversed at the 0.382 Fiboacco of the decline from 28055-25989, implying more selling pressure ahead. Notice the technical information by checking out the STOCH (5,3,3), reversing at the 50% level, what is the border from bear to bull phase; and MACD, reversing downwards too!
So, if HS is breaking below Monday`s low (March 2) @ 25989, the odds are to favor that another leg of selling period is next, could bring the index down to wave equality @ 25026. Such behavior would make some of my counts invalid and I need to adjust the counts!
For the bullish view, HS needs to break above the high @ 26788 (0.382 Fibonacci ) ion a closing basis with massive volume and a daily close at minimum.
Have a great weekend....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
The last stand for Hang SengAs the coronavirus outbreak plaques the global markets, Chinese equities have posted an optimistic V-shaped recovery but we've yet to see similar bullish sentiments from the H-shares. With the market testing the critical 26000 support again over the past week, the price actions looks like buyers are struggling to defend the 26000 level. Times are critical as a break below the 26000 support would see a breach of the key trendline support and complete the head and shoulders pattern. I am keeping my eyes peeled.
IMF to the rescue....Read here
Nobody can really tell you the real reason why a stock/index is going up or down for a specific reason. And if that reason seems plausible, it is difficult to prove it as well. Why then do traders (humans) need to know the answers ?
Call it the human curiosity or fear of the unknown. Be it going uptrend or downtrend, they need a reason to back it up. Like the recent Fed interest rate , that has been attributed to the stock market performance. So , each time the Fed lower interest rate and the stock market respond in kind, then the belief becomes stronger over time.
The scary part is trawling through the internet , researching and studying and analysing the reasons and fail to pull the trigger. Like yesterday's 1000 point DJI up move. Many traders were still speculating if it is a dead cat bounce or a V-shape recovery and choose to wait for confirmation.
And the result was a missed opportunity. As traders, we must have the courage to pull the trigger and have equal guts to face the consequences if proven wrong. We have stop loss to protect us. If we constantly shun from pulling trigger and keep on waiting till the coast is clear, we might missed many boats.
And then, we regretted and start to chase high price and suffered a pullback, and was stopped out. Then , we concluded the market was rigged, we were not good, swear never to come back to trade again ( I lost count of that), etc.
This independent act of pulling the trigger is crucial as a trader. If you are constantly relying on someone's trade calls, believing there must be something amiss, need more confirmation , then you can trade in micro lots where the chance of failure is reduced to the maximum. That means, if you are wrong, your financial loss is bearable. Do this enough times, you would improve your confidence and get better and better.
I have followers who shared with me that they used to follow a certain author but some of their calls were not good so they switch. If that is the reason, I bet any authors would have his fair share of wrong calls. That is not how winning is made in the market.
Most made by the probability of wins over the losses. Out of 10 trades, they might win 4 trades and lose 6 trades. It might appear they are not good since they lose more trades than win. But more importantly, when they win , they win double the rewards over the risk. That means the risks is small and contained while the profits/win are double or tripled. So 4 wins result can be a positive out of the total 10 trades.
Accuracy of trade calls can be sharpened over time but the concept of win/loss ratio is key as this builds the winning formula. Thus, jumping from one author to author may not be the solution , in fact , it can mislead or confuse you as they may use different indicators or way of looking at the chart. It is like reaching the end goal but the journey to reach it can be varied. No right or wrong. Some are well versed in moving averages while others like Bollinger Bands and others swear by RSI or MACD.
Discover for yourself over time what trading styles suits you and build your success from there! Rome is not build in a day so have patience and clock in the 10,000 hours and you will and can surpass your cyber-mentors!
Hong Kong Stock Index (Dead Cat Bounce)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (3 March 2020)
We are in the rebound mode and it will likely take some time.
HSI is in the grind support region and it can climb up slowly. 26,800 shall be reachable, soon.
But I see the whole thing as a dead-cat bounce phenomenon.
Whatever method you use if you do not follow the proper rule of risk management, it will have detrimental effects on your account.
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