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HK50 trade ideas

Ride the Japanese Wave, Don't Grab That China Falling KnifeIt was nearly three years ago when the China stock market notched a short-term peak. Recall how the world's second-largest economy was initially seen as a growth engine coming out of the worst of the pandemic. An authoritative regime in China, led by President Xi Jinping, crippled the economy's expansion trajectory through harsh ongoing lockdowns and by clamping down on many industries, one after another. Then in early 2023, hope sprang eternal that China would re-open amid a burst of consumer spending, a la what was seen during the 'revenge travel' period in the United States back in 2021 and 2022. That did not come to fruition, and the Hang Seng Index is now down by more than 50% in the last three years. With all that turmoil going on in China, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index has continued to soar. Up more than 20% since February of 2021, the once sleepy Tokyo stock market features among the best momentum readings of all countries. Based on these trends, sticking with the 'long Nikkei, short China' trade should keep working, in my view. Another way to play it is by being long developed market stocks and avoiding emerging market funds (which still have a roughly 20% allocation to China). Finally, while China trades at a single-digit P/E ratio today, Japan is by no means expensive. Goldman Sachs notes that the country's current 12-month forward earnings multiple is just 14.9, about average compared to its 20-year history (Asia-Pac ex-Japan is 12.3x, for perspective). Interestingly, Japan is back up to 6% of the global stock market allocation while China has sunk to just 3%. Perhaps it is indeed the land of the rising sun while China is a classic "sub"-merging market. A solid ETF to play Japan continues to be the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) which hedges exposure to the Japanese Yen. The ETF has a solid track record of outperforming other Japanese country funds.
TVC:HSILong
by mikezaccardi
1
HSI ForecastThe current status is uncertain, and there are two possibilities: 1. If it is the 2nd wave of an upward trend, the HSI (Hang Seng Index) will rebound in the short term and surpass 16500. The level of 16500 will be tested multiple times, which would be the most favorable situation for the HSI. 2. If it is the 5th wave of a downturn, the HSI will break the 15400 level and drop even further, below 14470, previous bottom, and towards 13000. In 2024, I expect the HSI to fluctuate between 15300 and 17100 until the market gains a clearer understanding of China's economic performance. At the beginning of 2024, in the very short term, the trend is likely to decline further. I anticipate that the HSI will test a near-term new low at 15300. However, after the 1st quarter, it could benefit from a lower Federal Reserve interest rate. Nevertheless, the strength of the rebound may not be very strong due to the prevailing uncertainty in the market. We can target the rebound to 16500 or max 17000. Disclaimer Please understand the forecasting will be subjected to many factors and this is the vision at this moment. This comment is not encouraging you to follow or make any investment decision. You will be the only one be responsible for your investment decision and any related behavior. I am not going to bear any legal or non-legal responsibility.
HSI:HSI
by RedCranePunch
1
Another 5-20% more to hit the bottom ......Most have pulled out of HSI or China Market with much unhappiness, disappointment and anger. The Chinese Government has failed to shore up the economy and stock market and big institutional firms have sold or pull out large funds away from China. Another 300 points down today , red and more red like the blood flowing out of a body, slowly but surely. So many retail investors have lost money and those who leveraged had it worse, cursing the hell at every opportunity. A visit to many chinese social media would receive tons of negative news about the stock market, property, loss of confidence ,etc. My overall portfolio would be in double digit growth had it not been pulled down by some of my China holdings. While lately, there are some corporate buybacks but the outflow seems much more than the inflows..... Nobody knows what's on the sleeves of the CCP and how they intend to salvage this situation or not at all. Some speculate like the Japanese market falling into the doldrums for 30 decades, China may face the same fate as well , maybe shorter. The signs are there - collapsing property market, deflationary enviroment, weak stock market,etc. Let's pray for a miracle
TVC:HSI
by dchua1969
3
HK33 to find sellers at previous support?HK33HKD - 24h expiry Previous support level of 16014 broken. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 16015 level. We look to Sell at 16015 (stop at 16195) Our profit targets will be 15565 and 15485 Resistance: 16150 / 16380 / 16810 Support: 15220 / 14790 / 14560 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:HK33HKDShort
by OANDA
5 Reasons Why China Stocks Are Falling -Thin Trading Volumes -Uncertain of the timing in rate cuts -Japan stocks are on poor performance -China's Index has fallen by -0.9% -Chinese stocks are the worst performers in Asia this year Also take note of the rocket booster strategy on this chart because this strategy can also be used to study the index markets. From the chart above you can see the this index market is in a down trend. To learn more rocket boost this content. -- **Disclaimer:** The information provided above is for educational and informational purposes only. -- It does not constitute financial advice, and trading always involves -- a risk of substantial losses, regardless of the margin levels -- used. Before engaging in any trading activities, it is crucial to -- conduct thorough research, consider your financial situation, -- and, if necessary, consult with a qualified financial advisor. Past -- performance is not indicative of future results, and market -- conditions can change rapidly. Trading decisions should be made -- based on careful analysis and consideration of individual -- circumstances. The user is solely responsible for any decisions made -- and should be aware of the inherent risks associated with trading in -- financial markets.
TVC:HSIShort
by lubosi
The Dragon Awakening: China's Stock Market Set for GrowthThe Chinese stock market has been volatile in recent years, but there are signs that it is on the verge of a major rebound. The government is implementing a number of reforms that are aimed at boosting economic growth and investor confidence. These reforms include tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and measures to support small and medium-sized businesses. As a result of these reforms, there is a growing sense that China's stock market is undervalued. This is reflected in the fact that the MSCI China Index, which tracks the performance of Chinese stocks, is currently trading at a discount to the MSCI World Index, which tracks the performance of stocks in developed markets. Investors who are looking for long-term growth opportunities should consider investing in Chinese stocks. The country has a large and growing economy, and its stock market is poised for a major rebound. Here are some of the reasons why China's stock market is set for growth: The Chinese economy is growing at a rapid pace. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.8% in 2023, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. The Chinese government is committed to supporting the stock market. The government has implemented a number of reforms that are aimed at improving the environment for investors. These reforms include measures to increase transparency and protect investors from fraud. The Chinese consumer is growing in affluence. The Chinese consumer class is growing rapidly, and this is creating strong demand for goods and services. This is a positive sign for the Chinese economy and its stock market. Investors who are considering investing in Chinese stocks should carefully research their investment options and consult with a financial advisor.
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by SabahEquityResearch
8
A few trends in China's economyToday, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation. Youth unemployment While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018 (back then, it stood at around 10%), with government programs promoting a higher level of education contributing to the problem. As a matter of fact, this year, in June, the youth unemployment rate hit a staggering 21.3%, prompting the Chinese government to stop reporting the number. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of China’s unemployment rate. Demographics and fertility Another big issue in China is the country’s aging population and declining fertility among women. The median age has risen from 28.9 years in 2000 to 34.1 years in 2010 and 37.4 years in 2020. On the other hand, the average number of births per woman stood at 1.6 in 2000; in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, the average rose to 1.8. But since 2018, the rate has been rapidly collapsing. In 2021, the number stood at 1.2, representing approximately 33% decline since 2018. China’s deflation As much of the Western world grapples with inflation, China has the opposite problem. For November 2023, the country recorded -0.5% deflation compared to the previous year. With that said, there were three periods when China experienced deflation (annually) since the 1990s. The first period occurred between 1998 and 1999, when the annual inflation rate was -0.8% and -1.4%. The second instance took place in 2002, and the third in 2007. For the eleven months of 2023, the inflation rate averages about 0.3%, the lowest figure since 2009. Housing prices Amid the ongoing property crisis in China, house prices have been sliding down this year. Actually, there were only two prints when the year-over-year change was not negative, particularly in June 2023 (coming in at 0.1%) and July 2023 (coming in at 0%). Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:HSI
by Tradersweekly
2
Hong Kong to continue in the downward move?HS50 - 24h expiry Buying pressure from 16228 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 16665 level. We look to Sell at 16665 (stop at 16825) Our profit targets will be 16265 and 16185 Resistance: 16810 / 17150 / 17420 Support: 16380 / 16150 / 15830 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:HK33HKDShort
by OANDA