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US100 trade ideas

Crucial to observe Price action on Monday and TuesdayDisclaimer: This is solely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please conduct your own assessment before making any decisions. The market performance last week aligned with prior expectations. Price maintaining an upward trend from Monday to Thursday. On Friday, prices saw a noticeable pullback; however, the decline was limited and did not break the previous low, remaining above 21,436. If bearish, next week, the price should break below 21,436 between Monday and Tuesday, with any rebound likely staying below 22,000. If the price successfully breaks below 21,436, short opportunities can be considered in the 21,700–21,950 range, with downside targets at 20,870, 20,648, and 20,549. However, in my opinion, the probability of this scenario is relatively low at the moment. The market is still maintaining a bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows. It is likely that the price will find support around 21436. If the price fails to break below 21,436 effectively on Monday or Tuesday and instead rebounds with solid support near this level, the market is more likely to maintain its upward trend. In this case, long opportunities could be considered on dips, with an upside target of 22,300–22,465. If the bulls gain control, there is a high probability that the price will retest 21,950 between Monday and Tuesday. However, if the price fails to retest 21,950 and remains above 21,700, it may indicate weak bullish momentum, suggesting a potential further decline. Next week, it will be crucial to observe the market’s performance on Monday and Tuesday to further assess its direction.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by zygliu
NASDAQ Approaching the ultimate 4hour MA200 buy entryNasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Channel Up, which is currently on a pullback. This correction is approaching the pattern's bottom which happens to be on the 4hour MA200. The last two such contacts have been buy opportunities. Also the 4hour RSI is oversold at 30.00 and the last two times it was on this level, they were again buy opportunities. Buy and target the upper Resistance at 22230. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TheCryptagon
1
NSDQ100 INTRADAY Bullish Flag breakout The NSDQ (USTec) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after reaching the intraday all time high. The key trading level is at the 21890 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21890 level could target the upside resistance at 22373 followed by the 22500 and 22620 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 21890 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 21770 support level followed by 21640. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by TradeNation
Closing Auctions: How Order Imbalances Shape Market Prices█ The Final 15 Minutes: How Closing Auctions Determine Market Pricing Every trading day ends with one of the most crucial events in financial markets — the closing auction. While many traders focus on intraday price movements, understanding the dynamics of closing auctions can provide valuable insights and profitable trading opportunities. █ What Are Closing Auctions? Closing auctions are special trading sessions held at the end of the day across major and minor exchanges worldwide. They determine the official closing price of securities based on Market-on-Close (MOC) and Limit-on-Close (LOC) orders submitted before the market officially closes. These auctions are essential because institutions, index funds, and ETFs use the closing price for portfolio valuation, index tracking, and arbitrage strategies. In recent years, closing auction volumes have surged, now accounting for about 11% of total daily trading volume. █ Why Have Closing Auctions Grown in Importance? The increasing popularity of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is one major factor behind the growth of closing auctions. ETFs must ensure their prices align with the net asset value (NAV) of their holdings, and arbitrageurs use the closing auction to correct price imbalances. Additionally, large institutional investors prefer closing auctions to execute substantial trades with minimal market impact. These factors have led to a rise in order imbalances — where buy and sell orders significantly diverge — during the closing session. █ How Do Order Imbalances Affect Prices? Studies have found that stocks with large order imbalances tend to experience price distortions in the last 15 minutes of trading. Stocks with high buy imbalances typically outperform those with high sell imbalances during this period. However, about 83% of this price impact reverses over the next three to five days, suggesting a short-term trading opportunity. ⚪ Example: At 3:55 PM, the exchange releases imbalance data: Buy Imbalance: +500,000 shares (demand is high) Sell Imbalance: -200,000 shares (supply is lower) Since there are more buy orders than sell orders, buyers are forced to increase their bid prices to get filled. As a result, the price moves up sharply, reflecting the strong demand. This is exactly what we see in the chart—the buy-side midpoint jumps higher than the sell-side midpoint drops, confirming a buy-heavy imbalance in the closing auction. █ A Profitable Trading Strategy Based on Order Imbalances Based on historical data, traders can exploit these patterns using two different strategies: ⚪ Momentum Strategy (Short-Term): Buy stocks with the largest buy-side imbalances and short stocks with the largest sell-side imbalances 15 minutes before the market close. Close positions at the market close. ⚪ Reversal Strategy (Over Multiple Days): Do the opposite—short stocks with the highest buy imbalances and go long on stocks with the highest sell imbalances at the close, holding positions for about five days. Backtests of this strategy show that the momentum approach can yield approximately 32 basis points per trade, translating to an annualized return of 80% when executed systematically. However, traders must account for transaction costs and slippage. █ Real-World Example: NYSE Closing Auction Data for AAP (02/20/2025) To better understand how closing auction imbalances impact price movements, let's analyze the NYSE imbalance data for AAP on February 20, 2025. The data provides three key insights: Imbalance Trends: At 15:55 and 15:56, AAP had significant sell imbalances (-40,849 and -40,718, respectively). However, this shifted at 15:57, showing a smaller sell imbalance (-13,023), followed by a net buy imbalance at 15:58 (+11,403) and 15:59 (+6,764). The final imbalance before dissemination was -34,286. Paired Quantity Increase: The paired quantity, representing executed trades, consistently increased from 258,135 at 15:55 to 311,382 by the final dissemination, indicating heightened auction activity as the market prepared to close. Impact on Clearing Price: AAP's price began at $42.17 but surged to $44.66 by 15:58, aligning with buy imbalances. However, the price slightly retraced to $44.34 at final dissemination, reinforcing the tendency for short-term reversals after strong closing auction moves. This example highlights how traders can monitor closing auction imbalance data to anticipate price behavior in the final minutes of trading. For a more interactive exploration, check out the NYSE’s Closing Auction Imbalance Analysis Tool. █ What Does This Mean for Retail Traders? Pay Attention to the Closing Session: Many traders overlook the last 15 minutes of the market, but this period offers crucial insights into order flows and institutional activity. Watch for Order Imbalances: Exchanges like the NYSE release imbalance data at 3:45 PM, giving traders a window to react before the market close. Avoid Chasing Closing Prices: Since price reversals are common, buying into a strong closing auction rally may lead to short-term losses. Use Data & Tools to Your Advantage: Platforms like Polygon.io provide real-time and historical imbalance data, which can enhance trading decisions. █ Key Takeaways Closing auctions play a crucial role in determining end-of-day prices, affecting institutional strategies and index valuations. Order imbalances in the last 15 minutes of trading can create short-term price distortions, often reversing in the following days. Traders can capitalize on these imbalances using either a short-term momentum strategy or a multi-day reversal strategy. Understanding and leveraging closing auction dynamics can provide a significant trading edge. Closing auctions are more than just an end-of-day formality—they reveal important market sentiment and provide trading opportunities. Whether you are a day trader looking to capitalize on short-term price movements or a swing trader seeking to exploit reversals, understanding the role of order imbalances in closing auctions can give you an edge in the market. By incorporating these insights into your strategy, you can navigate the complexities of the market more effectively and make more informed trading decisions. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by Zeiierman
1
NASDAQ: Opening selloff is a buy opportunity.Nasdaq remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.351, MACD = 161.240, ADX = 29.408) despite today's selling early into the session. This indicates that relative to the bullish long term trend, this correction is a buy opportunity, especially as the index hit its 4H MA50. This happens to be at the bottom of the 20day Channel Up, a pattern potentially identical to the December 10th low of the Channel Up. We are long, expecting a new +3.80% rise (TP = 22,700). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
1