The NASDAQ Fails to Break Out, Paving the Way for Lower PricesIt looked as though the Nasdaq 100 might break out last week, following a double boost from Nvidia’s surge after its results and news that a federal court had blocked US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, those hopes quickly faded, and the Nasdaq promptly reversed course. Now the index finds itself in a precarious position, as it appears to be preparing for a move lower.
The first thing that stands out on the Nasdaq 100 chart is the rejection of the breakout attempt on 29 May. As a result, the Nasdaq may be forming a double top pattern. The pattern still requires confirmation, which would come from a decline below the neckline at 20,900. A break of the neckline could set the stage for a return to the 19,900–20,100 region.
Additionally, the index has broken the uptrend that formed from the intraday lows on 7 April, with the rally on 29 May serving as a re-test of that trendline break. At the same time, momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index, has also reversed direction and is now trending lower, after having risen above 70, indicating the index had become overbought. This further strengthens the case that the Nasdaq is at some form of inflexion point.
One might have thought that two positive news events on the same day would have been enough to generate the momentum needed to push the Nasdaq higher and trigger a breakout. However, the failure to do so raises serious questions about whether the index has the strength required to move higher from here. It now seems more likely that a change in trend is beginning to emerge, and if a double top is forming, a move lower appears increasingly probable.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
