US100 The best price, low risk entry is usually found OUTSIDE of the range.
For two months, we have been trading in this range 20533 - 22129.
We had a 1hr Break of Structure (BOS) on Monday, the 2pm UTC 0 Candle (The hour including Ny Market Open) The close price of this candle that broke structure was 22129.
From a Swing Trading perspective at least, Any longs that were still open should been have closed then IMO, whilst further information was provided by our friend.
On Tuesday, our friend made a major bluff after the 1hr BOS by printing a fresh ATH on Tuesday (during London hours, classic manipulation territory), only to dump it in NY Hours and creating a 4hr BOS at a deeper price. This created a large DOJI on the Daily Chart.
From that point, IMO, the turnaround was confirmed.
After this point, we were given 4 clear opportunities on the 4hr Chart, outside of the range, ABOVE the previous ATH to get short…including Fridays very dubious rally before the dump…. You can clearly spot them.
On Thursday we had a Daily BOS and it retraced a full 79% in the same session before close….The market willingly showed its hand with the Daily BOS IMO.
The final part of the bamboozlement was the final retest of the ATH from 79% retracement level to 100%, after the Daily BOS.
The 100% retracement level was a 4hr Double Top and the previous days breakdown price….which was also ATH for the last two months.
I was already very bearish as most of you know but I would have thought that the most bullish of bulls would have been suspicious at least of a fall at this point.
If you got short above 22129, you have the optimal entry for this bearish wave. Congrats.
If you got short after 22129, congrats also.
If you opened longs on Friday after the NY bell, forget about it and maybe take the next session off to avoid tilt (tilt/revenge trading is not the one)
But….
If you are short after 22129 or planning to go short we need to consider that we don’t KNOW WHAT SPECIFIC LIQUIDITY THE NAS wants within the range, whilst we are still in it.
My first target for the bearish wave got smashed yesterday, without any pullback.
But I accept, that the NAS could wake up on Sunday/Monday and decide to Gap up and fill the gap it has just created with another 100% retracement to Fridays High.
We just don’t know…and this is why we shouldn’t chase trades and ideally wait for our optimal entries.
NAS100 was the 72 week cycle finished in December? and this whole move was just liquidity extension? one can only know after the fact, but the shorts I held from 18 December were mainly based on that idea
NAS100 I closed my short in fear of a gap up monday but the way it looks is highly probable for gap down. - reason being the break of previous hour doji broken. which I think of as continuation of current trend
NDQ ready for Monday bulls? it's a relief they finally dumped this. It might go further down next week but I doubt it. More likely this is where smart money will load long positions here and then push it higher and we see each other at the end of next month around here. have a great weekend everyone!