US30 trade ideas
3.5% Decline on The Dow Jones 30 But Is This Unusual?Looking at the trend structure over the last 8 months, we can see a pattern play out.
Since April, pullbacks of between 3.5% and 7% have been part and parcel of the Dow Jones’s trend structure. (highlighted in red)
The current pullback of 3.5% falls within this range.
Note also how our trend filter remains mostly green and grey, with speckles of red, since April, in line with the long-term bull trend.
The index has now fallen to the d50sma (orange line), where we want to see it find support, bounce, break out and continue its climb to 50,000, as it has done since April.
The Dow Jones is also a good example of how trend structures can change despite no change in direction.
October to March saw a much faster trend, using the d20sma (blue line) as support, eventually breaking through in April and leading to a change in trend structure.
The Dow Jones is currently lagging behind the Nasdaq 100, which is setting record highs above 20,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500, which has settled into a mini consolidation above the 6000 level.
We ideally want to see Santa deliver in the final 2 weeks of December.
However, if the indices and stocks don't show new trend continuations through the rest of 2024, we want them to hold within consolidation, which will act a bases for trends in the New Year.
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US30 BACK TO BULLISH?For the last 3 months (beginning of September) US30 has completed 3 gold zone Fibonacci setups, while making new highs shortly after.
It is now at the 4th gold zone (.618-.5 give or take) and may be looking to reject anywhere in this realm and buy for ATH or possibly a new ATH. This would be the 4th consecutive gold zone fib setup in 3 months.
With CPI matching the exact forecast and the Feds rate cuts more than likely awaiting to happen, this looks like a perfect time to buy here at this zone.
A first TP would be ATH around 45,085
A second TP could possibly be a NEW ATH several hundred points above the previous (targets never seen before May be hard to pinpoint with an exact TP price)
Nonetheless this looks like a solid trade idea.
Thoughts?
US30 painting a beautiful downtrendUS30 Technical Analysis Report
December 16, 2024
Current Market Overview
The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently displaying a significant bearish bias, with multiple timeframe analysis supporting a continuation of the downward momentum. Current price: 43,886
Technical Analysis by Timeframe
Daily Timeframe (HTF)
Confirmed bearish market structure break at 44,392 (December 10, 2024)
Overall Higher Timeframe trend remains bearish
This break serves as a key reference point for the current bearish momentum
4-Hour Timeframe (H4)
Clear downtrend pattern formation
Current price action showing retracement to sweep buy/sell liquidity zones
Price action respecting the downward trendline range
Suggested entry level identified at 43,809
1-Hour Timeframe (H1)
Key resistance level identified at 44,058
Potential for temporary trend interruption if this level is breached
Currently operating within Asian session range boundaries
Key Trading Levels
Entry Target: 43,809
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 43,345
Extended Target (TP2): 42,890 (conditional on market alignment)
Key Resistance: 44,058
Previous Structure Break: 44,392
Volume Analysis
Current phase: Asian session (characterized by lower volume)
Critical observation period: New York session open
Anticipating increased volume and potential trend confirmation during NY hours
Risk Management Considerations
Primary trend remains bearish
Watch for potential temporary reversals at 44,058
Monitor NY session volume for trade confirmation
Consider partial position closure at TP1 (43,345)
Trading Session Context
Currently in Asian trading hours
Key decision point expected at NY session open
Volume expected to increase significantly during NY hours, providing better trade execution opportunities
Trade Strategy Summary
The overall strategy aligns with the bearish bias across multiple timeframes. Entry opportunities are being monitored at 43,809, with a structured approach to take profit levels. The New York session will be crucial for volume confirmation of the anticipated moves.
Note: This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All traders should conduct their own research and risk assessment before entering any positions.
US30 trade idea, Crystal clean entryWhat are the market makers thinking? That we wouldn't see this??...lol we did and we gon eat!
DM me for signals and mentorship.
Leggo!!!
#us30signals
Big Money Complacency AKA "Deer In the Headlights"The violent US market selloff this afternoon after the Fed cut interest rates
was proceeded by 9 straight days of selling in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Yesterday I posed the observation
that the 9 consecutive days selling had been a warning
of something ominous and yet unknown coming soon to the market.
But no, complacency reigned.
The Fed would bail out the market the way they always do.
But no, today quite the contrary.
They're faith in all that was overwhelmingly "overwhelmed".
The proof of that " massive surprise "
was shown in the VIX, which get this rose, 74 % in just one day to 27.
My point in all this is that traders in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average
had sniffed out all of this 10 days ago.
Sometimes broader markets show telling signs of "deer in the headlights".
This one was about big money complacency.
And as todays selloff proved.. they paid harshly for that misguided misjudgment.
THE_UNWIND
12/18/24
WOOODS OF CONNECTICUT
Why is Dow Jones on a losing streak?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (Ticker AT: USAIND) recently experienced its longest negative streak since 2018, racking up eight consecutive sessions of declines. This downtrend began on December 4, when the index closed above 45,000 points for the first time in history. Since then, it has shown a downward trend, reflecting the volatility and fluctuations of the market in the current period. During this period, the DJIA has shown a downward trend, while other indexes such as the Nasdaq have experienced increases, reaching new all-time highs. For example, the Nasdaq rose 1.24% and closed at new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.38%. However, these positive closes were the result of the strong performance of a few stocks, such as Alphabet, Apple and Tesla, which set new all-time highs.
The recent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), is due to several factors that have generated uncertainty in the markets. Here are the main reasons behind this behavior:
1. Interest Rate Concerns 2.
• The persistence of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to combat inflation continues to negatively affect sensitive sectors, such as real estate and industrials.
• Investors fear that these rates could be prolonged, limiting economic growth.
2.Recession Fears
• Mixed economic data, such as a slowdown in consumer spending and industrial production, have fueled concerns about a possible recession in 2024.
• Although the labor market remains strong, other indicators, such as the manufacturing index, reflect weakness.
3. Impact of the Industrial Sector
• Given that the DJIA is largely comprised of industrial and consumer goods companies, any weakness in these sectors directly impacts its performance.
• Key companies in the index, such as Boeing and Caterpillar, have suffered setbacks due to global uncertainty.
4. Strength of the dollar
• The strengthening of the dollar against other currencies negatively affects DJIA companies with high international exposure, reducing the competitiveness of their products abroad.
5. Rotation to Other Indices
• Investors are favoring indices more exposed to the technology sector, such as the Nasdaq, which has had a positive performance thanks to the momentum of artificial intelligence and other technological advances.
6. Geopolitical Tensions
• Uncertainties in the Middle East, as well as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have increased risk aversion, especially affecting global companies in the DJIA.
On the technical side, the index has had several bearish days that are reaching its last support zone near 43,300 points. If this zone is pierced, it could evolve towards the checkpoint near 42,100 points. On the other hand, the index is currently oversold at 41.72% and its mid-range crosses do not indicate a change in direction. If we look at the MACD if there has been a turn of the trend of the average of 12 crossing below the average of 26, which shows that in the short term this situation does not seem to have changed.
It is important to note that the DJIA is a price-weighted index, which means that higher-priced stocks have a more significant impact on its movement. Therefore, fluctuations in the prices of high-value stocks can significantly influence the index's performance.
For investors and analysts, this negative streak in the DJIA underscores the importance of monitoring market trends and considering factors such as index composition, global economic conditions and monetary policies that can influence stock index performance.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
US30 Intra-Week Analysis DEC 17th 2024US30 continued to make its way down to the 43400 Key Level after retracing from the new All-Time-High and supporting the FUD from an increase in interested rates. From this price point we can expect a decrease in volume resulting in consolidation as we approach Christmas and the new year. If we see a break above 43800 that will help support potential buys back to ATHs otherwise look out for a break below 43250 meaning selling momentum is still there.
US30 in consolidation patter but will likely fall someUS30 is showing resilliance at support level 43700 with the entire day hovering on or around that support line. Price is currently within the trend line channel and and therefore would have to consolidate above that support area in order to maintain its levels. If price within the next 8 hours does not recover above the current support line it will likely fall some more. The next support level is at 43500. Look to short the US30 from a retest of the current support line to at least 43500. Make sure to set your TPs properly because it will be a fast fall to a rebound when it does.
Follow me for more insights. Comment below for questions.
Return to the upward trend!!As always, the mathematical model NDS has been used in developing this idea. 📊 As you can see, the Dow Jones index 📉 is expected to complete its final downward step around the 44152 region. Following this, it will likely head upward 📈 to complete node F3 within F3, in line with the rules of fractal mathematics 🔄, and ultimately reach its ALL-TIME HIGH once again 🚀✨. Our expected targets are as follows: 🎯.
🎯 first target = 44469
🎯secend target = 44724
🎯third target = 44900
🎯FINAL TARGET = 45064
US 30 Resting around Support Line at 43800 with a Bearish Set upUS 30 is resting on support at 43800 with the potential to fall. With no clear indication of strong buyers ahead. The US30 is likely to fall for the first half of the week only to recover and go Bullish towards the end of the week. The rate at which the US30 will fall will be based on how fast it gets to the lower support at 43360 which is the strongest zone for buyers to enter the market again.
For shorts, look for price to break 43777 and retest that zone for a TP to 43360 area.
For buys, look for price to break the trend line and retest the same trend line to rise.
The short is more likely than the buy.
If you are already in a short you can hold it.
Follow me for more tips and tricks or comment below!
US30 BUYI'm expecting the market to break the resistance trendline and the horizontal trendline all together to confirm the my buy.
Do you think we might see a price correction for the US30?
Hi dears
I have set two target areas that I think are likely to be reached and touched.
What do you think? Do you think we predicted correctly?
US30 Falls to 42200 and is now in buyers ZoneUS30 Falls yesterday causing much of the traders to lose their bullish trades. The market faked like it wanted to go bullish but slid over 250 points. Price is currently closer to support 42300 and is likely to continue to consolidate between here and 92900. This is a zone to take small intraday trades to make up for any losses sustained with yesterday's slide.
For bullish confirmation look for a retest above 42900.
Be careful by paying attention to look for higher highs and higher lows.
Be safe out there. Good trading.
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
Santa abandons the Dow 30Buyers in the Dow Jones are likely frustrated given the recent gains in other stock indices, and as sellers are aggressively challenging the bullish uptrend, with the index nearly erasing all gains of its 5% rally off the November 19 low. As the price approaches a prior consolidation zone between 43,319 and 43,557, a reaction is likely, potentially forming a bottom and pushing higher as the December Santa rally begins. We maintain a bullish bias above 43,111, the November 20 low.
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Price Tests Key Levels as Bullish and Bearish Momentum CompeteTechnical Analysis
The price dropped as anticipated in the previous analysis. Today, the price is likely to attempt to reach 41,960. A break below this level would confirm further bearish movement toward 41,740. However, if the price stabilizes above 41,970, it could support a bullish move toward the pivot zone at 42,370.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 42130
Resistance Levels: 42370, 42590, 42770
Support Levels: 41970, 41740, 41560
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Momentum: Expected if the price stabilizes above 41,970.
Bearish Momentum: Likely with stability below 41,970.
previous idea:
US30 Continuation w Sell Limit Prediction After US30 broke our major daily Trendline we foresee a continuation to the downside to keep riding it down, we will try to catch it on the retest to the 44.430 area. Sell limit placed now let’s see if the markets agree w our set up..
Large 1000 points drop - panic drop signal possible rebound dipThe Dow had a strong dip yesterday and this shows a price in exit after the Fed announcement yesterday. Due to the sudden drop that coincides with the pocket of support at 41,700-42,300, the DJIA may signal a possible rebound. Despite declining momentum, the psychological of the market and price action signal maintain the uptrend sentiment. Hence, we maintain our long-term target at 46,000
US30 indicating a bullish move. Look for the Bulls TodayUS30 has finally broken the downward trend above the 43500 support line. The US30 gave us an evening star pattern off of the trend line and support area at 43500. This was an indication to go Long.
If you are in a short, you will likely have to wait for a pull back to get out of your trade or you can close in a small loss.
If you are in a long. Hold it. This may be US30 returning back to 44500 at least.
Good Luck to you traders.
Comment below for questions and don't forget to boost this if you like the analysis.
us30 longus30: us stocks are in a bullish realy,
after the prsident trump . so we tryto
buy the us30 at every support .
order 1: instant buy with the sl below the support
order 2: buy limit at the support , after the false breakout of channel
The Mystery Of The Dow Index..Here is an interesting trend trade swing opportunity. I already have my index quota filled although as US index long is not the worst of ideas. The trend trade in question is the Dow Jones (US30) which is technically setting up and awaiting a daily buy signal/bar.
Here is the interesting aspect. Why on earth is the DJI dropping for over a week back to averages while the SPY/SPX remains near ATHs? This divergence is creating the DJI trend trade but the fundamentals behind it need to be understood.
Both indices should be behaving similarly as they have for quite a while now but the recent divergence has to be due to a combination of risk factors which are just now aligning that way. Sector composition is different, right? S&P is heavy tech and growth while DJI is traditional large caps. But they should react the same way to the sentiment environment and FED cut expectations so what gives?
Maybe it is just tech. Tech is booming again with AI so it stands to reason that the S&P would hold an edge. Still, the environment is the same for traditional stocks and even if there should be a difference in gains, there surely shouldn't be a 100% divergence?
Maybe it is investor sentiment? Markets are all in on AI while traditional stocks are seeing pre holiday profit taking? Could be. Is the December H2 Santa rally around the corner and the DJI dip buy is in play? That's a lot of speculation for such a divergence.
Then we come to macro and this is where I think things begin to look different. Inflation has been coming in hot. But so has some other macro, macro that favours growth - and the FED cuts do to - so the S&P strength is probably warranted. The DJI is not so much about growth and probably more sensitive to inflationary pressures. I think that the inflation prints coming in hot may have been brushed off by the S&P and broader market, including the FED... but not by interest rate sensitive sectors of the DJI.
