US30lets look at the Correlations between US30, US10Y, DXY and fed Interest Rates
us10y and dollar are like react in a similar way, when the US10Y is rising ,it attracts foreign capital into us economy and the dollar benefits from capital inflow and strengthens in the process
US10Y and DXY (US Dollar Index):
the current tariffs and geopolitical events caused temporary decoupled this correlation but the correlation has reverted to positive alignment as of June 2025. Higher yields now signal renewed confidence in the US economy, lifting both yields and the dollar.
US30 (Dow Jones) and DXY,they have inverse correlation in such a way that when the dollar is weak it causes a boost of US30 by enhancing multinational corporate earnings as cheaper export brings in higher overseas revenue
there are Exception when we experience Simultaneous strength in DXY and US30 during "risk-on" global confidence
US10Y and Interest Rates (Federal Funds Rate):
Direct Link: US10Y reflects market expectations for Fed policy. Anticipated rate hikes lift yields; expected cuts lower them.
Current Context: With the Fed holding rates at 4.25–4.50%, US10Y (4.26%) remains sensitive to inflation data and future cut expectations.
US30 and Interest Rates has Inverse Pressure when rate are Higher it increases borrowing costs, potentially dampening corporate profits and stock valuations. Lower rates support equity rallies.
2025 Dynamic: Despite elevated rates, US30 trades near record highs due to resilient growth and tariff-related sector rotations.
Critical Drivers
Yield-Dollar Sync: US10Y and DXY realignment signals market confidence in US assets, but geopolitical/trade risks can disrupt this.
Equity Sensitivity: US30 benefits from dollar weakness but faces headwinds if the Fed delays rate cuts amid sticky inflation.
Interest Rate Outlook: Fed patience (no cuts until September) sustains US10Y-DXY positivity but caps explosive US30 gains.
watch my supply roof and demand floor for reaction.
#us30
