Weekly Analyses and Recap
Welcome traders,
Market Recap Sep 30th - Oct 4th
Last week price spent the majority of the time consolidating between 42,380.6 - 41,995.9 before breaking out to the downside at 41,885.8 liquidating any buyers from the support level with pending SLs below structure. This liquidity sweep was the final accumulation of buying pressure allow institutional traders to have their buy orders filled to take price up to the resistance level of the consolidation range.
From a fundamental perspective, NFP data came in hotter than expected showing exceptionally strong economic data causing a bullish reaction in equities. Previously strong data would cause a bearish reaction in equities as investors would take it as the Feds pausing rates for longer. However, strong data can sometimes boost investor confidence, leading to a bullish sentiment in equities. If economic indicators suggest robust growth, investors might be more willing to take on riskier assets like stocks.
🚨 October 7 -11 🚨
Moving froward, since price is currently at the resistance level of the consolidation range we can expect price to resume its downtrend. At market open today price gapped up which it is currently trying to fill. This gap up can be considered as a liquidity grab for any early sellers in the market with pending SLs above structure.
Will this be the final sweep before price falls? Not sure..
As it is the first day of the trading week, it is possible for price to later retest this area or even do a final liquidity sweep up to 42,479.1 before committing to taking out the lows.
Since price is at resistance, there are a lot more sell side liquidity than buy side liquidity to be filled. From an institutional trader perspective, a sell order was placed in order for price to breakout to 41,885.8 and instead of closing in drawdown price will return to the lows to that institutions can either close at breakeven or in profit. As always, major financial institutions are the one who control the market.
Higher TF analyses:
On the daily chart, we can see that price broke below the 23.0% fib level to signal the Daily LH. Historically price has shown to respect the fib level 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% as possible levels for retracement. Since price has broken through the 23.0% but has not reached the 38.2% level then we can expect price to resume its down trend to complete its retracement.
On the 23H chart, price has signalled its respective LH indicating that every other TF below it is currently at its highest point and so can expect some retracement for the bigger TF to signal their respective HL. On this chart we can also see bullish FVGs created from the strong buyer momentum as other key areas for price to retest. We also have a imbalance created when price gapped up at 41,621.9 which also aligns with the 38.2% fib level of volatility.
Therefore, for the rest of this week my bias is bearish for rice to come down and retest these levels.
