US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations.
Factors Driving the Bearish Turn:
• Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations:
o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal.
• Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies:
o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers.
o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty.
• Data from the CFTC:
o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment.
• Global Economic Factors:
o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar:
• Impact on Global Trade:
o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports.
• Inflationary Pressures:
o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise.
• Investment Flows:
o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations.
Market Analysis:
• Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook.
• It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly.
• The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar.
In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
USDX trade ideas
USD INDEXPrice is currently in wave 4 of C, with the correction likely ending around 101.500. Expect a rebound towards 105.20 before the downtrend continues. From there, we should see a resumption of the bearish momentum, pushing price towards the 101.500 level. Keep an eye on price action around 101.500 for confirmation of the Wave 5 completion. A strong bullish candle or a break above a minor resistance level in that area would signal a good entry point for a long position, targeting 105.20. However, be prepared to cut losses if the level fails to hold and price breaks lower. Conservative traders might wait for a confirmed rejection at 105.20 before entering short positions, aiming for the 98.00 target. Trade safe and manage your risk.
DXY March 23 Analysis and 24 IdeaDXY
March 24
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session Premium and discount on the daily range
No News
March 23 Analysis
I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI is search of higher prices at the beginning of the week, and celebrate Price did. Wicking to the March 6 buy stop. On the daily range Price is coming up to the 50 level.
Price in a Premium took session buy stops, lowered to equal sell stops in a discount in London, then rallied to March 6 buy stops and up into the Daily BISI. Great delivery.
Premium to discount to Premium. Expanded higher creating equal highs in Asia, to retrace, consolidate in London, to reverse in NY and close consolidating in a premium.
*Note the event horizon is to the sell side
March 24 Idea
I would like to see Price come down in Asia and London to the 50 maybe take the equal sell stops at the .618 and could rally for higher prices in NY.
I consider that until Asia delivers all above could change. I also consider that no news today or tomorrow could create high resistance days, stay sharp.
[D] USX - Major Change AheadA rough idea how this could play till mid April. I do expect unusually disturbing readings on early-warning indexes and ISM since Trump inauguration to finally show up in metrics such as unemployment and CPI. This could weight strongly on the US Dollar. If basic axioms hold true, we're about to witness a major change in perception on the global reserve currency.
[D] EUR/USD - Major change ahead?A rough idea how this could play till mid April. I do expect unusually disturbing readings on early-warning indexes and ISM since Trump inauguration to finally show up in metrics such as unemployment and CPI. This could weight strongly on the US Dollar. If basic axioms hold true, we're about to witness a major change in perception on the global reserve currency.
Power of trendline + support/resistanceI would like to show the power of combining trendlines and support & resistance on your chart work. As we all know in order for a trendline to be effective it must be used with key major points and the trend must be clear whether it's an uptrend or downtrend, cause if the trend is neither then that would lead to false signals that would cause people to get stopped out.
If used with S&R it can give us way better entries and more accurate with high probability of winning, We all know if for example an Uptrend trendline is broken then that would mean we have sellers active and that means the trend will go down, however that is not entirely true if it was then we would all be millionaires lol. So in order to fix this and know for sure the trend is changing for real we need to combine both our Trendlines and S&R, as you can see from the chart our uptrend trendline was broken and those who entered immediately after the breakout would have been trapped by professional traders when the price pulled back to their entry points, but to avoid this and get a much better entry that has high accuracy like mine you would also need to use your "visible" support and resistance.
As the uptrend line was broken that gave us a sign sellers are active and might push the price down but that is not enough confirmation to sell, unless you want to make a loss obviously💀,If you noticed I also marked my Visible Support(CHANGE OF TREND), since this is the lowest point in the uptrend then we know if price breaks below it then it's a clear confirmation that sellers will overpower buyers and push the price down, our first confirmation was Price breaking the uptrend(not enough to sell), our second powerful confirmation was price breaking below the CHANGE OF TREND, now this shows that bears overpowered bulls causing a CHANGE OF TREND and a much higher winning probability and a much better R:R.
I know most people would see this as a late entry, but it's not trust me there's no better entry you can get better than this that has higher chance of winning and a better R:R also less risky. Most people chase the trend instead of waiting for the trend to come to them, that's also why they make many losses because they enter with few confirmations that have low probability
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bearish Outlook Explained
Dollar Index is currently consolidating within a range on intraday time frames.
Testing its upper boundary, the market formed a double top pattern.
With a strong bearish mood after the opening, the market is going
to drop lower.
Goal - 103.8
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
DXY + Progressive Trend Tracker + VIDYA + GANN square of nineProgressive Trend Tracker (PTT) is a development combining Bollinger Bands with Highest Highs and Lowest Lows by K.Hasan Alpay & Anıl Özekşi.
As observed on the charts the reading is well above the lower band and indicating the strength in the DXY. The three green soldiers bring message of strength from the world of candle stick patterns.
The VIDYA ( Variable Dynamic Moving Average is the black line on the chart and is the VAR based moving average. The price above this line also signals strength in the index.
The support and resistance lines is coming from the inbuilt indicator that display nearest support and resistance from GANN Square of 9 box. The RED line is the strongest resistance here and the blue line is the moderate support.
DOLLAR INDEX (#DXY): Strong Bullish Reversal!?The Dollar Index appears to be showing bullish signs following a period of consolidation lasting two weeks.
A breakout above a resistance level in a sideways trading range is a strong signal of confirmation.
It is likely that we will see a move upwards, potentially reaching the 104.10 level.
Dollar Done Playin’ Weak: Double Bottom Signals Big Rebound!The dollar looks like it’s done bein’ weak and is gearin’ up to reclaim its throne. It hit a bearish target real quick, formed a double bottom pattern at the golden Fibonacci ratio, and on Friday, it completed the pattern. That’s showin’ it’s ready to kick off a new upward wave.
Bullish Setup: DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)🟢 Entry Zone: 104.10 – 104.30
🔴 Stop Loss: 102.90 (below the key demand zone)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
✅TP1: 105.00 (initial resistance, suitable for partials)
✅TP2: 106.00 (recent structure high)
✅TP3: 107.50 (extended target on sustained momentum)
🔍 Technical Context:
• Strong reaction from the 103.00–103.50 demand zone, which has acted as major support since November
• Bullish MACD crossover underway, with histogram flipping positive — early trend reversal signal
• RSI recovering from oversold territory, suggesting renewed bullish momentum
• Price retesting and reclaiming the 9 EMA — a common trigger level for trend shifts
• Potential higher low formation after a sharp corrective wave — signaling strength building under the surface
A daily close above 104.30 would confirm the breakout and open the door for a push toward the 106–107.50 zone.
$DXY IdeiaFor the DXY, we expect the week to remain bullish, driven by the ongoing correction after a significant price drop. Our expectation is that the upward movement will extend to the weekly key level premium.
This bullish outlook is reinforced by several factors. First, we observed a bottom SMT with GU, followed by a market structure break on the daily chart. Additionally, the H4 timeframe has shown continuation purges, where lows are rejected, indicating buying strength. Finally, we identified a bearish SMT in bond yields, providing a strong indication that we are following the correct direction.
DXY March 23 week aheadDXY
March 23 week ahead
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session Premium and Premium on the daily range
News Monday 9:45
When Price lowered into the Monthly SIBI from sept 2024 for the second week but and then rallied for higher prices, I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI.
Wait and see what Sunday does. However if we see lower prices beginning of the week we could see Price rally to the buy side target and rebalance March 6 daily SIBI be the target for higher prices.
DXY March 23 Weekly Analysis DXY
March 23 Weekly Analysis
In hindsight it gets easier to see. Reading from the 4 hour chart I can see from March 5 price sold off to then consolidate on the 50, sells off early the next week making the low on Tuesday then rallies to engineer equal highs and closes at the 50. This past week Price come just below the 50 off consolidation again sells off early in the week making the low on Tuesday and hit deep discount and rallies closing this week in a Premium.
*Note the magnet that the event horizon played this past week-learning it value.
*Note price came down to below .70 on the parent range and wicked into the Monthly BISI from oct 2024
*Note that Price came to the .70 of the daily range and came through to the .618 creating equal lows. Daily chart
*Note price 3 week narrowed range I pointed out earlier this week
*Note Price was in a discount until Thursday coming through to a premium on the hourly chart
Beginning the week consolidating on the 50, taking sell stops and creating equal lows to close. Price lowers to take sell stops and creates equal lows on Tuesday in a deep discount. Wednesday Price launches to the 50 level taking Friday/Mondays equal highs. Sells off back into a discount. Thursday rallies to just take equal highs created from March 10. Retracement to the 50 level and upper quadrant of the FVG Thursday created. Friday rallies to barely take the buy side, then wicks down to the same FVG quadrant level creating equal lows and rallies higher again taking Thursdays buy stops and creates equal highs.