USDX trade ideas
DXY - Can Get To $108DXY
This is now a very strong bounce and a bullish morning star candle pattern is printing on the month chart still with half the month to go.
I think this may be first major bounce from the market topping slump back in 2022...
From the crash low I see it as an AR "Automatic Rally" (short covering) into a 3 wave correction...
And now the real bounce which may end up being a higher time frame 3 wave correction that Elliott Wavers might call a WXY.
This is starting to look like it will be the obligatory minimum 0.618 @ $108.7 retracement as per crash structure ratios and it can of course explore into the Golden Window up to 0.786 @ $111.3 overshoot ratio and even a little beyond.
This is great for currency trades long dollar and as you know I posted a short GBPUSD trade (see linked idea) a while ago.
That trade should have some legs if dollar gets to the Golden Window, which I think it will if the month closes here or above.
Pull backs along the way of course.
Not advice
Why I was surprised some called for a cooling/correction of USD$
Daily & Weekly Below
Late last week and earlier this week, some traders & price predictors were giving their big 'scoop' about the Dollar correcting going into the start of this week. I didn't really buy it and here is why.
I knew that there was no real recent resistance for USDX at these current levels. In fact, absolutely nothing for 12 months.
I could also see that by late last week the Dollar had simply pulled back from its recent high at around 107.03 and yes even got over a whole number before pulling back and closing a little lower on 14 November. By last Friday 1 week ago the USDX (dollar index) was a mere 0.3% below 107.03. Also, look at the combined volume for last week and for that matter this week. Why and how would any instrument recede in price after all that weekly volume?
Whenever, I make a call on the USDX, I am acutely aware of its wide influencing price behaviour on currency pairs, gold price and even Crypto and other commodities.
Making calls on the dollar should be reserved for those who properly pull the chart apart and study the price-action with leading-indicators, not some sort of on the run call like "the dollar looks like selling, its a bit overbought". Theres no such thing as over bought when an instrument is rallying.
I said the USD was BREAKING OUT back when it was around 100 prior to Gold's breakout. I had concerns over RSI Monthly Oversold levels and I could see historically when this had happened to the Dollar (on a USDX chart with monthly RSI levels plotted) that this occurrence had preceded a major breakout in the USD$. Multiple times at different periods going back only several years.
Perhaps, next time give us your reasons why the USD is correcting and taking a break, that we can see how sound your technical analysis trading methods might be.
Don't do something for example Bloomberg recommends in a headline, I am not picking on Bloomberg but the entire trading news, who really don't have a clue and are chase headlines.
Waiting for DXY bearish confirmationWednesday has taken out Monday's weekly highs so I anticipated a bearish DXY but bullish momentum is still continuing. Still not seeing a bearish confirmation closure.
DXY BUY ANALYSIS DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN Here on DXY price form double bottom and now likely to go up so if line 107.553 break price is likely to go up more and trader should go for LONG and expect profit target of 110.552 and 114.599 . Use money money management
#dxy #elliottwave long buy setup wave c 20Nov24This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Market News Report - 17 November 2024The US dollar is showing no let-up as it was, yet again, a bullish force. While there were up-trending currencies like CHF and JPY, USD is definitely stealing the show. But what do the fundamentals say for the greenback and the other currencies? Let's cover them in more detail in our latest market news report.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
As predicted by STIR (short-term interest rate) markets, the Fed cut the interest rate by 25 basis points/bps from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing.
While there is some mildly positive economic data, the bearish bias remains for USD, with STIR pricing indicating one more 25 bps cut in December. However, Powell stated on the 14th of November that the economy isn't giving signals that the Fed must be in a rush to cut rates.
The Dixie continues to head north and is very close to the key resistance at 107.348. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their decisions going forward.
The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Furthermore, any big misses in economic data, such as labour and GDP (Gross Domestic Product), would support the expectation of cuts.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations (although the Eurozone Gross Domestic/GDP growth was above expectations).
Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks.
The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.04485. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround.
The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be continuously sold off.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously.
Despite this, we saw a slight increase in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures.
Speaking of which, watch out for the new YoY inflation rate for GBP scheduled for Wednesday.
Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. The nearest key support is at 1.26156 (which it has just touched), while the resistance target is 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, incoming CPI (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
Unlike in July this year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention.
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted not long ago that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory).
As recently as 31 October 2024, Ueda also stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections were realised. Interestingly, you can diarise his upcoming speech on Thursday.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth also provide the potential for upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive.
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged last week, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight.
As with GBP/USD, the Aussie is currently more of a seller's market than a buyer's one. The key resistance level lies ahead at 0.69426, while the major support remains at 0.63484. Despite this bearish setup, consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD in your overall analysis.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It's crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
Also, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD).
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude.
Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias.
Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it has just touched. It will be interesting to see how it reacts this week.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' A 50bps rate cut is predicted for the meeting later this month. They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle.
As with the Aussie, potential headwinds for NZD are considered due to the trade tariff issues between China and the United States.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%.
The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.'
Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers.
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.34197. We have to go onto a higher time frame for the next target. For now, let's see what happens around this area. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.33586.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the October CPI came in weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data).
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut next month.
Conclusion
In summary:
The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand.
Inflation is a common theme among central banks. Watch out for the new YoY inflation rate for GBP on Wednesday.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
DXY4h tr below of daily resistance and bearish setup in 4h makes me to sell it.
Note: its conter trend so I open it with my half position size
Is King Dollar poised for a flush ?Possible H&S formation on the DXY.
These formations do not always work out....
But interesting to watch since it would have profound implications on Crypto Assets and Prescious Metals Mining companies....
I am bullish on all the above, especially on PM since the Gold / Silver ratio recently had a major break down.
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 106.605
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
update on dollar index analysisprice continues to move towards our point of interest. but on the higher timeframe. is this a break out continuation entry ? confirming continuation of buys on gold,eurusd,gbpusd,eurcard. once the pullback on the dollar weekly after buyside raide is completed ?
what are your thoughts ? are we trading reversal and further continuation in the bullish weekly sentiment of the dollar ? what are your thoughts .
dollar index thoughts ?dollar index moving based on analysis . mondays closing and opening range will provide further understanding based on the analysis
dollar interest analysis weekly ,daily, 4h, 1h , dollar index analysis . waiting for further confirmation on mondays opening and closing range to confirm the weekly sentiment of bearish .
what are your thoughts on dollar index this week ?
Framing a bullish $DXYFraming a buy program on TVC:DXY from the 4 Hour key level to external range liquidity. When London Session begins I'll start looking for confirmation that price is willing to respect the Key level and then Long the $Dollar.
DXY Monthly BULLISH- Possible bullish pullback price movement on DXY towards the resistance 120$ within the next period.
dollars next weekheadache, i cant write any thing meaningful, bruh they wouldn't let me publish with just this so i just write more
Anticipating a Stronger DollarThe U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) has been strengthening since the 2008 crisis, and I expect this trend to continue. I anticipate the Dollar Index (DXY) could reach a target of 120 by the next election or even sooner.
DXY long forecastWeekly reaching for buy side liquidity
Daily and 4h showing internal range to external range move
DXY upward momentum continuesDXY upward momentum continues as US dollar continues to strenthen with new elected government polices
DXY Long forecastWeekly reaching for buy side liquidity
Daily and 4h showing internal range to external range move
DXYExpected technical view of the dollar. Daily frame. Possible decline to the 104.626 area below. If it is broken, it will continue to decline to the lower areas.
DOLLARFED chairman on visit to Dallas fed team was a little beat hawkish ,feds are not in hurry to cut rate ,but will be watching the economic dockets as they unfold to take appropriate decision on rate ,Powell said been to fast or slow will affect the job market and alter 2% inflation target of FED mandate.
