U.S political events have a significant impact on the USDTrump Election (2016): subsequent DXY downtrend during the first year of TRUMP presidency. The price seems to have retraced from a peak and continued declining for about a year.
Biden Election (2020): After the 2020 election of Joe Biden, there was a notable bottoming pattern, followed by a strong upward movement in the DXY, implying a recovery or strengthening of the USD.
the DXY moved within a range during Trump's presidency, between 88.275 and 104.023 .
Current Analysis (2024): The DXY is approaching a sell zone, potentially aiming for a reintegration into the Trump range.
U.S. political events, such as presidential elections, have a significant impact on the USD's strength. The transitions in administrations are marked by notable shifts in the DXY.
USDX trade ideas
A Zoom of the Weekly DXY into a Daily viewI kept the colored rectangels from my weekly analysis, to keep the focus and knowledge where we are on the chart.
DXY is doing a long A-B-C before it's is going into the last impulse og the C of Y of x of the larger degree.
It's quite a lot of corrections to manage, but if you swipe from the daily to the weekly timeframe, it makes good sense. For me at least :D.
The purple B wave took some time to figure out, but this was what made most sense to me. I was trying to look at it as a triangle, but that wouldn't have a good shape, so I ended out with this white ((w))-((x))-((y)) correction.
DXY is right now performing, what I see as, a extended 5th wave in the white ((iii) wave, before it goes into the white ((iv)) correction.
The white ((iv) wave correction could be become a long shallow drawn out correction for two reasons.
We had a steep and swift white (ii) followed by an extended white ((iii) wave. This usually means we are going to spend some time correcting that white (iii) wave and the rule of alternation tells us, if we have a quick 2nd wave, we are usually going to see a slow fourth wave.
I don't believe we have completed the white (iii) yet, so we have a long time to go still until that white (iv) wave is done.
When the white (iv) wave is done, the white (v) wave is probaly going to take us down to that green box.
So relax for the next 6 months and grab yourself a cup of coffee.
DeGRAM | DXY dropped below 100 pointsDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
On the downside, the price has formed a gap and dropped below 100 pips and has already reached the lower trend line.
The chart maintains a descending structure but has already formed a harmonic pattern and a descending wedge.
On the major timeframes, the index relative strength is in the oversold zone and on the 30m Timeframe it is forming a bullish convergence.
We expect a reversal after a support retest.
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DXY Current Outlook 4hr , Daily and weekly analysisAt its current level, the DXY (US Dollar Index) is at a critical zone where a potential bullish reversal could occur. It is plausible that the index could reverse somewhere between the 99.50 – 98.00 range. However, there is also a possibility that this zone could break, leading to further downside continuation, potentially targeting the 96.23 – 93.95 levels.
It’s important to always watch for potential reversal signs at key levels. The reversal, if it happens, will likely be confirmed by certain indicators or patterns—like reversal candlestick formations—that we’ve mentioned before. Once price reaches those zones, look out for any of those confirmation signals, and use your own trading experience to validate them.
That being said, it’s also realistic to consider that the current zone (between 99.00 – 98.00) might already be the point where the dollar begins a strong recovery.
Note: All scenarios are valid, and key levels should be monitored closely for signs of a shift in momentum TVC:DXY
USDX-BUY strategy 12 hourly chart Regression channelFundamentally we understand the selling pressures on USD and technically also had confirmation for that as well. now we are very oversold (and even before), and since we cannot know the exact lows, we should carefully implement BUY strategy that survives. this is an individual choice and strategy.
Strategy BUY @ 99.20-99.60 and take profit near 101.57 for now.
Dollar Index Monthly Review: Key Support Levels with the help ofIn the first Fibonacci setup, we observe a retracement of the index to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, after which a trendline could be drawn. Applying a second Fibonacci retracement on the chart reveals that the Dollar Index once again found support within the 50.0%-61.8% zone.
In January of this year, the dollar attempted to break above the 110.00 level but encountered resistance at the 61.8% bullish retracement level. This led to another pullback, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward the trendline in the 98.50-99.00 zone. The 100.00 level is expected to act as support, though a temporary dip below this level within a consolidation phase is possible before another solid support is established.
Once a new support base is confirmed, the Dollar Index could initiate the next bullish rally, potentially forming a new high above the 116.00 level.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Key Resistance & Bearish Target Analys📊 Key Observations:
🔵 Resistance Zone (📍~103.5 Level)
A strong resistance area (🔵 blue box) is marked, indicating potential selling pressure if the price reaches this level.
The price is moving upwards (📈) towards this resistance, so watch for rejection or breakout.
🔵 Support/Target Zone (📍~101.5 Level)
A lower support zone (🔵 blue box) is marked as the bearish target 🎯.
If the price fails at resistance, it may head downwards (📉) to this level.
📉 Recent Price Action:
🚀 Sharp drop followed by a rebound (📈).
The price is currently moving back up (🔼), possibly forming a lower high before another drop.
📌 Exponential Moving Average (DEMA 9 - 102.488)
The price is hovering above the 9-period DEMA (📏), showing short-term bullish momentum.
If the price rejects resistance and falls below the DEMA, a bearish continuation (📉) is likely.
🚀 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout: If price breaks above 🔵 resistance, it may continue rising (📈) to higher levels.
❌ Bearish Rejection: If price fails at resistance, expect a drop (📉) towards 101.5 🎯.
(SMC) and key liquidity zones aligning for a major bearish reverThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is tracing out its final wave of the Elliott 5-wave structure, with a powerful confluence of Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and key liquidity zones aligning for a major bearish reversal.
Wave (iv) correction might offer the last sell opportunity before a deep wave (v) drives us into the golden demand zone near 91–93.
Watch closely:
Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Order Block aligning at resistance
Wave (iii) completed with strong momentum
Massive bearish pressure setting up for 2025–2026
Next Move?
We’re tracking the wave (iv) pullback into the SMC zone, looking for entries to ride wave (v) down.
Get ready for a potential macro-level shift in dollar strength!
#DXY #ElliottWave #SMC #ForexAnalysis #DollarIndex
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The impact of tariffs on the DXYIn the long term, the imposition of tariffs will trigger countermeasures from trading partners 😡, leading to a shrinkage of the global trade scale 😔. The import costs of raw materials for American enterprises will rise, and their export markets will be restricted, which will curb the economic growth of the United States 😩. This will exert depreciation pressure on the US dollar, causing the DXY to decline 📉.
U.S. Tariff Policies
Since April 9th, the United States has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and other regions, covering key sectors such as automobiles, steel, and semiconductors.😒
Countermeasures of Various Countries
China: On April 4th, China announced that it would impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting from April 10th. On April 9th, the tariff rate was further increased to 84%, covering all U.S. goods.😠
The European Union: Announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on U.S. motorcycles, diamonds, and other goods starting from May 16th.😤
Canada: Imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. automobiles on April 9th, but exempted auto parts.😏
This upward movement has led to the clearing of many traders' accounts or significant losses 😫. You can follow my signals and gradually recover your losses and achieve profitability 🌟.
💰💰💰 DXY 💰💰💰
🎯 Sell@103 - 100
🎯 TP 96 - 94
Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗
The DXY Is Crumbling To Dust - Easy 2 Percent Short Entry NowThe dollar is crumbling to dust fast. The latest tariff news with China is going to spiral the already bearish market into a future spiral.
The earning moving average values (red 5, blue 10, yellow 50, white 100) are all below price action currently. On almost all of the time frames.
We are currently sitting at a very minor support zone as circled in yellow. Price should slip easily 100.60 possibly slightly less. The bottom orange box is the bottom support zone of the DXY low since 2023.
Place your stop loss slightly above 103.25 to prevent a liquidity grab. The bears are in control of this current market do not be foolish. TRADE THE TREND!!!
$DXY to 100 and heading lower, bullish for $EURUSDTVC:DXY the dollar index, was the primary driver of the equity bear market in 2022. With TVC:DXY hitting a 5 year high of 114 marked the bottom in AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. The recent strength in TVC:DXY was out of stock with TVC:DXY and Stock markets rising at the same time and dropping when the TVC:DXY is falling. Usually, the risk assets have an inverse correlation to the US Dollar index. These periods in history are unusual and are marked by some kind of macro events like recession etc. With tariffs discussion everywhere that might not be unrealistic to expect some kind of recession.
In that case where is the TVC:DXY headed? Currently the TVC:DXY is at a psychological level of 100. Once it breaks below 100 the next stop might be 95. If we see some kind of soft recession which is my worst-case scenario then we might see the lows of 90 in $DXY. If TVC:DXY goes down by 10% or lower than we can expect to the FX:EURUSD to go back to its recent high of 1.23.
Verdict: Short TVC:DXY ; Long FX:EURUSD , AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ
DXY Will Fall! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 99.769.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 96.117 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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DXY NEXT MOVE AND MARKET EFFECTThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently testing a major multi-year support zone around the 99.70–100.00 level. This level has held firm multiple times in the past, acting as a strong demand area during key macroeconomic cycles. Right now, price action is showing indecision with a clear do-or-die moment forming. If bulls defend this zone, we could witness a significant bullish reversal, potentially targeting the 103.00–105.00 range. However, a decisive break below this support could trigger a bearish wave toward the 96.00 handle or even lower.
Technically, this zone is not just psychological, but also a structural demand region, aligning with previous swing lows and price pivots. We’re seeing a potential for either a double bottom reversal or a breakdown structure forming, depending on how the market reacts in the coming sessions. Price is extremely oversold on higher timeframes, which could fuel a relief rally if momentum shifts. The reaction here will be key for broader market direction, especially as the dollar plays a pivotal role across forex majors.
Fundamentally, the DXY is under pressure as recent U.S. macro data reveals weakening momentum. March CPI printed hotter than expected, but other indicators like core PCE, NFP softness, and signs of slowing consumer demand are fueling expectations that the Fed may be nearing a policy pivot. At the same time, global risk sentiment is improving and yields have pulled back slightly, putting pressure on the greenback. However, rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continue to support USD as a safe-haven asset.
As a professional trader, this is a critical level to watch. I’m keeping an eye on price action confirmation for either a bullish engulfing setup or a clean break and retest of the 99.50 level. Both scenarios offer high-probability trades. Patience here is crucial — let the market reveal its hand, then align with the momentum. Dollar volatility is likely to remain elevated heading into next week, so managing risk with clarity is key.
DXY/USD sell 1D chart analysisThis chart is for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the daily timeframe (1D) from FXOPEN. It shows a clear bearish trend structure with multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) and Break of Structure (BoS) labels, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
Chart Analysis Summary:
The DXY is in a downtrend, showing successive lower highs and lower lows.
There's a strong supply zone marked in red around the 107.8–110.8 level.
Price has just broken below a previous structure, suggesting continuation downward.
Trade Setup (SELL):
Entry Point: Around 99.800 (current price zone or slightly after a minor pullback)
Stop Loss (SL): 101.00 (above the most recent high/supply zone and invalidation area)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 96.000 (first key support zone)
Final Target (TP2): 89.400 (major support zone as seen on the chart)
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DXY SELL SETUP – Daily Timeframe
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown multiple bearish CHoCH and BOS confirmations. Price has broken key structure and is currently retesting a premium area. We are anticipating continued bearish pressure based on trend structure and liquidity targets below.
Entry: 99.800
Stop Loss: 101.000
Take Profit 1: 96.000
Final Target: 89.400
This setup aligns with overall market structure and momentum. Stay updated for management and scaling instructions.
DXY - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of DXY (Dollar Index) with you.
Looking at the DXY chart, I expect a price increase towards 101.267. After reaching this level, I anticipate a decline to around 96.00.
📉 Expectation:
Bullish Scenario: Price increases towards 101.267.
Bearish Scenario: After reaching 101.267, a decline to 96.00.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 101.267
Support: 96.00
💬 What are your thoughts on DXY this week? Let me know in the comments!
Trade safe