USDX trade ideas
DXY aka USD another leg lower - UpdatePlaying out as expected, now we ride the wave down and make some $$$$$
The US Dollar... March has been a fantastic trading month for me so far. I'm out of drawdown and showing a half-decent profit.
This week, there is a lot happening, including interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, Fed, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England.
At the moment, I'm thinking about the dollar with two minds. Based on current positive economic data and the potential of higher US inflation, I'm bullish. On the other hand, I see the potential downside of the dollar based on US uncertainty, possible US recession, and the US losing its spot as a safe-haven and stable investment environment... 🤷♂️ What do you think?
DXY 17/03/2025DXY 17/03/2025 -> 21/03/2025
Closure above Weekly FVG would mean price is aiming to higher aiming for buy side liquidity on the HTF
Closure inside the weekly imbalance followed by downwards movement will mean we are looking to go past sell side liquidity on the HTF
Neutral BIAS on DXY at the moment : no aggressive selling yet just waiting for more clarity on the daily TF for actionable context "Patience over prejudice"
possibility of uptrendIt is expected that the price will change trend within the current support range and we will see the beginning of the upward trend. Otherwise, the downward trend will continue to the next support level.
DXY Bullish SetupAfter the market completed a series of five bullish motive waves, it experienced a sharp decline characterized by an ABC corrective pattern. The price retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, subsequently forming a leading diagonal pattern in wave 1. Additionally, an inverted head and shoulders pattern emerged after sweeping a key daily swing low (SSL) liquidity level. These developments suggest a potential upward movement in a five-wave motive structure.
Market Minds Team (MMT)
DxyDXY Index
DXY is gaining some potential towards upward trend after a massive fall to complete its " 4th " Impulsive Waves. It might retrace till Fibonacci Level - 50.00% touching the Upward Trend Line of Bearish Channel to complete its Order Block
Note :
This is only a Technical Analysis for DXY next move, Its not a proper Signal
DOLLAR INDEX Weekly Bias March 17 2025DOLLAR INDEX BIAS
Weekly Chart
Bias: Bearish
Last week's weekly candle closed through below previous candle low. Possible target below are weekly FVG and Weekly Sell Side Liquidity
Daily Chart
Bias: Bearish
Order flow is bearish. We are currently testing a daily fvg and if market breaks daily sell side liquidity we might eventually test the weekly fair value gap.
Dollar scenario 17/03/2025English : According to our analysis, we anticipate a BULLISH scenario.
Morocan Darija : kanchofo d'apres l'analyse dyalna antsanaw TLO3
ATENTION : I only share my ideas, not signals.
DXY biasSorry for my absense these days, to an extent, I still seeing Dollars going up, but with this intermediate bias, I suggest that assets or currencies against dollar will still go up, while dollars would likely drop following last friday.
DXY BEARISH TRENDDXY has been on a bearish movement since December, heading to the strong resistance of monthly and weekly timeframe. Currently trapped inside 4hours consolidation zone, if we see breakout to the down side, this will be continuation of the down movement to the monthly resistance before the new uptrend will start. But if the breakout is to the upside, meaning there will be a short bullish movement before another strong fall DXY. this will help to know what Gold and other USD pair is about to do in our analysis. What is your view? comment below.
Weekly FOREX Forecast March 17-21: Wait to Sell USD, Buy Majors!This is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The structure on the majors is simple and obvious. USD looks to move higher in the short term, into a bearish FVG, and then continue its bearish ways. The EUR, GBP will take advantage and move higher. The AUD and NZD are in consolidation, so waiting for a breakout is the best course of action. The CHF should outperform thee USD.
Be mindful there is a lot of red folder news items coming up for the week ahead, to include FOMC on Wednesday.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weakness Followed By Certainty.Dollar may dip below $100 soon, $92 to be exact, where price could bottom off its 200MA, then price will rally above the 2022 Highs, retesting the 2001/CP at $121 by 2026/Q3.
Must never doubt the mighty dollar, even during its pullbacks.
Dollar indexWe are expecting to push up above 104.5 early part of this week and show us reaction.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
Weekly overview and weekly updateIn this video, I break down my loses and explain why I went wrong. I also provide an update for the week and long turn predictions.
DOLLAR TREND REVERSAL?
📉 The DXY has reached a key demand zone—is this the perfect buying opportunity? Liquidity grab & reversal incoming? 📊🔄
🔍 Market Insights:
✅ Support Zone: 102.28 - 102.96 🟡
✅ Bullish Bounce Expected 📈—Targeting 105.42 - 106.13 🎯
✅ Smart Money Accumulation? Watch for a liquidity sweep & strong upside! 🚀
💬 What’s your take? Drop your analysis in the comments! Let’s trade smart together! 🔥📊
#Forex #DXY #USDollar #Trading #MarketAnalysis #GreenFireForex
DOLLAR DOMINANCE or DIVE?
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🚀 📉💰
🔥 The DXY (US Dollar Index) is at a CRUCIAL turning point! After completing a 5-wave Elliott structure, is the biggest correction about to begin? 📊📉
🔍 Key Levels & Insights:
⚡ Major Resistance at Wave 5 – Rejection confirmed! ❌
⚡ 12% Drop Incoming? The corrective A-B-C wave could shake the markets! 🌊
⚡ Smart Money Watchlist – Will the Dollar Bulls hold, or are the Bears ready to take control? 🐂 vs. 🐻
📢 What’s your take? Drop your analysis in the comments! Let's decode the market together! 🔥🔍
#Forex #DXY #ElliottWave #USD #MarketAnalysis #Dollar
Gold Tracks Purchasing Power (updated)YES, gold does track your purchasing power over LONG PERIODS of time.
It tracks the inflation ADJUSTED US Dollar more accurately than it does either the US Dollar OR Inflation.
It is a better way to understand macro tides which move the price of gold.
While there are periods of lower/diminishing correlation... you should really keep your eye on what has been happening now!
Gold has been in a period of INCREASING, statistically significative correlation with Purchasing Power.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Well, when gold sniffs out the end of the current rally for US Dollar versus Inflation, then it will tell us on its price chart.
You might want to reshare this post and maybe pin it.
I will.
========
Below is why I did this post.
What makes gold move?
I see soo many focus too much on either inflation or the US Dollar.
They are often wrong for 2 reasons:
1- Gold tracks neither per say, but inflation adjusted US Dollar (purchasing power).
2- Gold has a tendency to move 3 to 6 months ahead of the next move in purchasing power.
Use charts for unbiased, objective evidence gathering.
Forget headline news, stories, and narratives.
DXY March 16 Analysis DXY
March 16 Analysis
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session premium and discount on the daily range
March 15 delivery
Price delivering in a premium, taking buy stops hitting the .618 before turning around passing through the 50 to seek lower prices taking sell stops from the previous session
March 17 delivery
I suspect that Price could come up to the buy side target at the .618 and turn around? Wait for more tomorrow after Sundays dealers range and evaluate before Asia session.
Note Price broke structure and bounced off the .70
My Model Factors
Bias for Asia to London bull
Price will have to do the following for me to trade
*session liquidity taken
*macro time only
*first presented FVG
*4 candle pattern
*hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes
*every hour mark out what price has done
Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens.
Stay open to reading price deliver
DXY Will Move Higher! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 103.733.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 104.118 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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DXY Potential Reversal: Eyeing a Break Above 104.20Market Structure & Trendline Break
The US Dollar Index (DXY) recently broke out of its descending trendline on the 15-minute chart. This signals a potential shift from the prior downtrend into a short-term bullish phase.
After bouncing from the key support around 103.40–103.50, price is now hovering near 104.00.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zones:
103.40–103.50: Recent swing low and demand area. If price falls below this zone, it would weaken the bullish case and could lead to a retest of the 103.00 area.
102.80–103.00: Major support if the 103.40 zone fails.
Resistance Zones:
104.20–104.30: Minor resistance just above the current market price.
104.60–104.80: Next hurdle if DXY gains momentum.
A clear break above 104.80 could open the path toward 105.00 and beyond.
Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario
Entry: Consider longs on a confirmed break or retest of 104.00–104.20.
Targets:
First target around 104.60
Second target around 105.00
Stop Loss: Below 103.40, to invalidate the bullish structure.
Bearish Scenario
If price fails to break 104.20 and moves back under 103.40, watch for a retest from below to consider short positions.
Downside targets could be 103.00 or even 102.80 if the selling accelerates.
Overall Bias
The short-term momentum has shifted bullish with the trendline break and higher lows forming.
Keep an eye on major resistance levels around 104.20 and 104.60 to see if DXY can sustain its upward move.
A failure to hold above 103.40 would negate the bullish setup.
Always remember to manage your risk appropriately. Use stop losses, size your trades responsibly, and adjust targets based on market conditions.
Dxy longMy dxy bias is to go bullish from 103.945 to 109.210. I expect my bias to be invalidated from the below price 102.945
