🟩 Margin Debt with brokers points upWhen we look at the first chart the Margin Debt with brokers (aka how much the brokers are deploying margin) - we see a positive relationship with the times when brokers are on margin (aka buying a lot) and the market going up.
When we analyse the Rate of Change of this stat for the last 15months we can see that currently we are getting to a state of bearishness close to the 2008 and 2002 periods. This of course is a contrarian indicator and could point to a move higher.
This is a long term assessment, but it is a good point to include in your analysis.
However remember we NEVER have confirmed of the NET NEW HIGHS - hence this market has still not confirmed Bull Status, at best we have Bull-transition. So be very cautious of the market.
BOGZ1FL663067003Q trade ideas
SPX & Margin Debit at Broker ,definition of Bubble using "Tech" - RSI = We are far away from a bubble
- B% = Mid of Bubble land
- MACD = Beginning of Bubble land
What Is Margin Debt?
Margin debt is debt a brokerage customer takes on by trading on margin. When purchasing securities through a broker, investors have the option of using a cash account and covering the entire cost of the investment themselves, or using a margin account—meaning they borrow part of the initial capital from their broker. The portion the investors borrow is known as margin debt, while the portion they fund themselves is the margin, or equity.
Margin - Levered DEBT ObligationsWall Street thoroughly enjoys Degenercy when it comes to collecting Tolls on Excess.
As luck would have it, the DIP BUYING Herd is at it again, scooping up tremendous
Value Propositions within the Equity Complex, while Consumer Sentiment has hit a
a Post Pandemic Low.
Far exceeding the prior Low, a clear sign of Hysteria, one in which Wall Street imbues
them or clotheslines them and takes all the cake and bacon.
We shall see, but we find this akin to Baby Seals throwing a Coachella on the Inuit's
Reservation. How could the Tribe not resist clubbing Babies en masse?
Stay tuned, the show-covered landscape may be stained Protien Red rather soon.
MARGIN DEBT - An ST PeakThe Peak for Intermediate Margin Debt peaked in July.
After 15 months of elevation...
It has declined 4.48% as Fear and Uncertainty have taken
ahold... this appeared in the most recent release in
Consumer Confidence, which Collapsed.
Although the Gross Notional is nowhere near the highs
as a percentage of Total Assets Value, as we have repeatedly
indicated, the Trend is clear.
It serves as further Confirmation of the Distribution Patterns
we have Indicated for 47 Days.
Technical Metrics clearly illustrate this among Larger Daily
Divergences present within the Equity Complex.
While BR/VG continue to accumulate an Outsized VX Position,
the "Investor, HODL, MEME, Retail Trader, Speculator and well
oiled Degenerate Gambler" Class continue to twaddle with
even fewer outright purchases....
Instead, levering up with Options as Margin Debt continues
to head South.
The perfect setup is nearing completion.
The exits are too narrow to prevent 95% of the above
Casino participants from being harmed.
We attempt to promote Sanity with respect to Trading and
although a great many find it offensive and "Abusive" - it
is not.
To bad choices there are extreme consequences.
It is your Capital, your choice, your decision.
HK seeks opportunity, nothing more... clinging to
Coat Tails of those in Control.
Following
Obeying
Profiting
To Win, there must be a Loss.
We are taking a large SELL Position, the largest since August of 2020.
A minimum of an 11% decline is the Lower Target.