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Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)

Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)

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CCSA/DJI '1989 CRISIS' Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) (CCSA) to date; 2020 has moved in unprecedented ways. I have therefor analysed it's behaviour in the past similar to this one. Important to highlight the 1989 Crisis was caused by FED bailing out a portion of the 1,129 failed Savings Institutions. Similar to our current situation caused by COVID. 2020 only US printed 3 trillion dollar stimulus, and will soon will start buying bonds (more printed money instead of distributing it into economy, will go direct to companies, ie. 'for stock'. in 2020 FED is selectively bailing specific companies/institutions (Bloved/Higher tier only). Current US_dept = 21 trillion (tn). 12tn public, 9tn Inter Gov. Holdings; - Inter Gov. Holdings make 0.001% of population, - lower tier companies FED funds capped at roughly $800 billion (bn), - top tier FED funds 1,2 bn ++ (uncapped), ""to be edited'' { gov_pop = 0,001*6.5bn = 6500000 gov_debt/pop = public = 99,99*6.5bn = 1 - gov = 6493500000 Public Debt Distribution = (12/21) = 0.57*21tn = 11969999999999/ }
FRED:CCSA
by pbc666
ridethepig | Flatten the CurveA paradigm shift followed the "It's time" chart more rigidly than even I expected. Apologetically we can give the official ✅ for those following the example of dogmatism from @ridethepig and can see clearly how far we have come: "It's Time" 📌 It can be said that the opening knee-jerk reaction from "The Great Lockdown" is over and we can begin to enjoy a return back to the old 'normality' (whatever that means). The unemployment rate has likely peaked here in this cycle, it is curious how this happens so often, the cycle nature of time and human behaviour allows us the ability to prove all kinds of flows and forecasts; but with certain classical variations, as in the present case. So, given the huge development in claims, it is reasonable to challenge the highs of what is undeniably a historic crash. What can one learn from the flows, to fully understand this question we will need to begin digging a lot deeper. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
FRED:CCSAShort
by ridethepig
ARE WE HEADING TO ECONOMIC CRISIS?I don't particularly enjoy breaking the bad news but we are at record low levels for insured unemployment which is kind of scary for cycle followers. What we have seen for the last 50 years, a dip in unemployment usually followed by an economic downturn and we see a sudden jump on unemployment numbers. There are many underlying factors to this, which I will not mention here - but fundamentally it is because people start to become too loose and take their current situation for granted and start to overspent which is also encouraged by the media, government & banks! What shall we do? Assume it will happen and start planning ahead! and KEEP IT REAL!
FRED:CCSA
by Keep-it-Real
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