The economy peaked in April 2023"JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!"
As Obama said during the recovery period post GFC
This chart shows the employment level --- how many people are employed in the States / divided by the unemployment level --- the number of people without a job. .
A simple Ratio
With all the official Recessions highlighted in the red box.
The dates of the recessions are from Wikipedia.
JOBS are the ECONOMY
Goods and services are still made by people. (That is obviously under attack by robotics and AI) --- but will likely lead to new economies being birthed and new jobs created.
THE #FED is late to cut
and will likely cut too slowly
guaranteeing a GDP contraction therefore further job losses.
HOLDING RISK ASSETS
IS RISKY
needless to say.
CE16OV trade ideas
This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday)
German Manufacturing PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
October 4 (Tuesday)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
RBA Interest Rate Decision
October 5 (Wednesday)
US JOLTs Job Openings
UK Composite PMI
US ADP Employment Change
October 6 (Thursday)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Australia Trade Balance
UK Construction PMI
Eurozone Retail Sales
Canada Ivey PMI
October 7 (Friday)
US Nonfarm Payrolls
Canada Unemployment Rate
What You Need to Know This Week:
🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35%
🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market.
🔸 No major earnings report this week.
More information on Mitrade website.
Employment Level: Plenty of Room for GrowthEmployment level is not yet overheated which is bullish for risk-on assets. A repeat of the 1981-1982 recession a possibility but trading and investing has always been about probabilities, not possibilities. 6-17% increase in employment from now is far more likely. One is allowed to be a bear, but a bear right now is far more of a gambler than a bull is.