Inflation Higher Tomorrow? They changed their Calculation!Yeah, you heard that right. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has an announcement on their site saying, " Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures. " They are changing their weighting. Does this raise inflation or lower it? Well, that depends. Based on the year-over-year percentage of change they are going back to 2019-2020 numbers which happen to be lower. That would suggest inflation may report lower and that will be the headline news report which is very unfair to everyone because it's a lie. If they adjust the weighting higher though it may even our or be higher.
Used cars, oil, and energy are clearly much higher over the last year but they won't be using those numbers. What happens the following year when they do? Or, do they change the numbers again on us? Elections are coming so be watching for all kinds of bogus strategies for these politicians to take power over each other. Know, that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, NOT rising prices. Know that for the long run, they won't stop printing money until this blows up on someone's watch. Could that be in the next 10 years? I think it's highly likely.
CPIENGSL trade ideas
Macro - Inflation ReversalIdea for Macro:
- Just as the Fed shifts their narrative from "transitory" to "persistent" inflation...
- November saw crude oil with a 6 sigma move to the downside. Oil is inflation.
- Eurodollar futures curve inverted from 2024-2026.
Next CPI print will be a bewildering miss, and by January's (December) print, the deflationary fears will start to settle, but it will be too late to take off risk at that point.
"There are occasions when the bias affects not only market prices but also the so-called fundamentals. This is when reflexivity becomes important." - George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance
"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer
GLHF
- DPT