Relative Yield Curve InversionInstead of just measuring absolute Yield Curve inversion, we take the curve relative to current interest rates to understand just exactly how inverted we are proportionally to the era we are in.
About 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
When it will Come down?When 1-dgs10/dgs2 closes below the orange line at 0.1013, it all comes tumbling down.
Stagflation is comingReal interest rates will probably start to fall soon because of stagflation.
Real interest rates can be measured by subtracting inflation expectations FRED:T10YIE from US treasury yields FRED:DGS10 .
Treasury yields will likely fall along with unemployment as measured by initial claims FRED:
will silver rise along with a drop in real rates?Real rates look like they are about to turn over.
This should mean that interest rates should drop faster than the inflation.
A good proxy for this is silver which looks like it is touching a support line and the 100 MMA.
$spy $tlt It's not the inversion that kills the marketIt's when it normalizes you better watch out. I think we've put in a generational top and we go lower. Can't rule out a continued rally as the state of inversion can last a while.
Real yield, DGS10-T10YIEcalculating real yield, DGS10-T10YIE
reference
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
10 Year Treasury Elliott Wave Analysis10 Year Treasury Elliott Wave Analysis. The Big question here, is Wave (A) actually Wave (1) ?
$spy $tlt THE top is coming, but $ to be madeWhere spy tops out is questionable. 4800, 5000, 5250 ? Who know, We are now in the later stages in my opinion. Keep bets small and use stop losses and options to manage risk. A lot of money can be made or lost in this final stage. Don't be greedy and manage risk. Volatility will remain high so
$spy $tlt $tnx Inverted beans & frank patternIf this pan out and the frank gets erect it could spell trouble for risk assets
10-Year Treasury Hiding StrengthFRED:DGS10
Thought I would check out the the 10 year after some crazy price action and decided to analyze this on a longer term time frame.
The Laguerre RSI doesn't show much weakening compared to price which indicates to me there could be a possible pop up even making higher highs.
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