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Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market FirmsNet Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market FirmsNet Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market Firms

Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market Firms

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SLOOS Banking Lending Conditions- Released Monday 5th Feb 2024 Please review my prior post for a more detailed breakdown Released quarterly, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is a survey of up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 branches of international banks to gain insight into credit, lending and bank practices. The Federal Reserve issues and collates the voluntary surveys. The surveys generally include 25 questions and a number of special questions about development in banking practices. They cover practices for the previous three months, but also deal with expectations for the coming quarter and year. While some queries are quantitative, most are qualitative. The surveys have come to cover increasingly timely topics, for example, providing the Fed with insight into bank forbearance policies and trends in response to the 2020 economic crisis. Let’s have a look at the culmination of the some of the more important data in chart form The Chart The blue line on the chart plots the results of the SLOOS survey – specifically, the net percentage of polled banks reporting that they’ve tightened their lending standards to commercial and industrial customers. The other lines are specified on the chart and are self explanatory . PUKA
FRED:DRTSCILM
by PukaCharts
MACRO MONDAY 32~The SLOOS~ Is Lending Increasing or decreasing?MACRO MONDAY 32 – The SLOOS Released Monday 5th Feb 2024 (for Q4 2023) Released quarterly, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is a survey of up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 branches of international banks to gain insight into credit, lending standards and bank practices. The Federal Reserve issues and collates these voluntary surveys. The surveys generally include 25 questions and a number of special questions about development in banking practices. They cover practices for the previous three months, but also deal with expectations for the coming quarter and year. While some queries are quantitative, most are qualitative. The surveys have come to cover increasingly timely topics, for example, providing the Fed with insight into bank forbearance policies and trends in response to the 2020 economic crisis. Let’s have a look at the culmination of the some of the more important data from the SLOOS in chart form The Chart The blue line on the chart plots the results of the SLOOS survey – specifically, the net percentage of polled banks reporting that they’ve tightened their lending standards to commercial and industrial customers. I have combined the SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards on the chart with the Unemployment Rate. You can clearly see a pattern of the SLOOS leading the Unemployment Rate and also the broad correlation of their trends. Recessions are in grey. The SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards (blue line) ▫️ Lending standards tightened significantly prior to the onset of each of the last three recessions (See green lines and text on chart). ▫️ When lending conditions tightened by 54% or greater it coincided with the last four recessions. (Represented by the horizontal red dashed line on the chart and the red area at the top) ▫️ On two occasions the 54% level being breached would have been a pre-recession warning; prior to the 1990 recession and 2000 recession providing approx. 3 months advance warning. ▫️ When we breached the c.34% level in Jan 2008 it marked the beginning of that recession. We are currently at 33.9% (for Q3 2023) and were as high as 50% in the reading released in July (for Q2 2023). Above the 34% on the chart is the orange area, an area of increased recession risk but not guaranteed recession. ▫️ Interestingly, every recession ended close to when we exited back out below the 34% level. This makes the 34% level an incredibly useful level to watch for tomorrows release. If we break below the 34% level it would be a very good sign. We could speculate that it could be a sign of a soft landing being more probable and could suggest a soft recessionary period has already come and gone (based solely on this chart continuing on a downward trajectory under 34%). I emphasize “speculate”. U.S. Unemployment Rate (Red Line) ▫️ I have included the U.S. Unemployment Rate in red as in the last three recessions you can see that the unemployment rate took a sudden turn up, just before recession. This is a real trigger warning for recession on the chart. Whilst we have had an uptick in recent months, it has not been to the same degree as these prior warning signals. These prior stark increases were an increases of approx. 0.8% over two to three quarters. Our current increase is not even half of this (3.4% to 3.7% from Jan 2023 to present, a 0.3% increase over 1 year). If we rise up to 4.2% or higher we can start getting a little concerned. ▫️ The Unemployment Rate either based or rose above 4.3% prior to the last three recessions onset. This is another important level to watch in conjunction with the 34% and 54% levels on the SLOOS. All these levels increase or decrease the probability of recession and should infer a more or less risk reductive strategy for markets. In the above we covered the Net percentage of Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and mid-sized firms. The SLOOS provides a similar chart dataset for Tightening Standards for Small Firms, and another similar dataset for Consumer Loans and Credit Cards. I will share a chart in the comments that illustrates all three so that tomorrow we can update you with the new data released for all of them. You are now also better equipped to make your own judgement call based on the history and levels represented in the above chart, all of which is only a guide. Remember all these charts are available on TradingView and you can press play and update yourself as to where we are in terms of zones or levels breached on the charts. Thanks for coming along again PUKA
FRED:DRTSCILM
by PukaCharts
🟨 RECESSION? - TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONSFED CHAIRMAN POWELL'S STATEMENT 🎙️ Chairman Powell remains flexible regarding future rate hikes, emphasizing that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Notably, the removal of the word "anticipates" indicates a decrease in urgency for additional rate increases. Furthermore, the absence of the phrase "sufficiently restrictive" suggests that current policy has reached the desired level. LENDING AND CREDIT CONDITIONS 💳 The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring lending and credit conditions as tighter credit may replace some of the rate hikes that could have been necessary. The current approach can be described as a "hope and pray" policy, where the Fed relies on falling inflation and tighter credit conditions to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, while hoping no other issues arise. POTENTIAL RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? 📉 Tighter credit conditions might lead to a recession. However, it is essential to determine how much of this possibility has already been factored into the market.
FRED:DRTSCILMShort
by TintinTrading
A Chart Demonstrating How FED Policy Causes VolatilityDuring a discussion with a contact, I pointed out that watching the FED is one of the easy ways to forecast volatility. Being specific here, FED policy on interest rates is a key predictor of market volatility. To summarise, Federal Reserve interest rates induce tightening at institutions. This in turn causes credit crunches out in the real markets as institutions begin to tighten standards. When this feeds through into the consumer level, this causes volatility n the real markets and hence we see peaks of the market-based components of credit conditions (I.e. the institutional banks and companies) coinciding very neatly with the VIX. There are many reasons for this. Firstly, tight credit conditions mean less margin is available. This should be self-explanatory. Secondly, it means that ultimately consumers are not able to consume on the level that they previously did and this of course hits institutions in their balance sheets. As a third-order consequence, it can often mean that it becomes difficult to roll debt and service debt and this can sometimes force the selling of assets to meet short-term cashflow requirements. A lot of the time, this means selling bonds and equities. We can see that when the FED begins tightening, the market-based institutions begin tightening a few months to a couple of years later. The FED's interest rates therefore clearly front-run interest rates and credit conditions out in the real world. And thus, because these credit conditions are correlated to the VIX, the FED's activity is a clear predictor of big spikes in the VIX (As well as potential downside in the vix).
FRED:DRTSCILM
by RogueEconomics