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The Federal Deficit/SurplusThis chart shows the yearly US Federal Government deficit over the past few decades.
FYFSD trade ideas
Mind the gap!DISCLAIMER
NO BUMS allowed, if you don't like making money and consistently downvote radical ideas and thinking because you are bitter and haven't made money for the past 12 months, then stop following me and LEAVE. This is a strictly NO-BUMS allowed post....
DXY usually follows deficit, and although for the past 10 years, we have seen stagnating growth in the EU and Japan, I think we could see a different story for the next 2 years. The US cannot continue to spend money it doesn't make and put it on the countries credit card (see story on 1.6Tr spending bill approved) and not suffer any consequence to its already mamouth 34Trill debt. Something has got to give, they either stop spending (aint gonna happen, it's war machine needs the money) or the Dollar will crashes down to 89....
At some point, investors will stop buying government bonds, wanting to be better rewarded for taking on the risk. This means the treasury will have to resort to its mom and dad bank (Fed reserve balance sheet) when it comes to funding its spending. Already Fed presidents Lorie Logan suggested slowing asset runoff as reverse repo dries up. This is a precursor to restarting QE later this year when the Treasury has to refinance 10Tr worth of debt and it fails to find any bidders at a paltry 2.5% (which market participants are suggesting is the neutral rate).
In another view, EURUSD typically benefits from a fall in dollar such is the historical basket weighting being heavy German Deutsche Mark
Good hunting, and remember, don't be a bum by downvoting fresh ideas!
Macro Perspective - Wealth Transfer, First Abusers - TY for RuinOur collective (us) environment is one of complete and total absurdity.
It pre-dates Andrew Jackson's closure of the 2nd Bank of the United States,
Were one, and only one chart to illustrate our Circumstance fellow Humans,
it is above.
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In Fiscal Year 2020, federal spending was equal to 31% of the total
gross domestic product (GDP), or economic activity, of the United States
that year ($21.00 Trillion - the Equities Complex accounting for an outsized
percentage of this figure.)
Government spending = $3 out of every $10 of the goods produced and services
provided in the United States.
To date during 2021, the federal government is projected to spend $6.8 trillion.
Far higher than even last year.
Projected Revenues = $3.8 Trillion.
The CBOE projects -$51.3 Trillion into 2031.
David Stockman's tears in his Ice Cream... not in question as he warned then
President Reagan (Deeply Disturbed by Circumstance then, enough to form a
Council of Economic Advisors on GOLD and restoring it's Monetary Tier 1 abilities
to the Public Domain via the US Treasury. Ron Paul was a lead Advisor.)
Reagan tried and failed.
Then, under Reagan - We crossed $1 Trillion - which, at this time was an absurd
dislocation. Fast forward 38 years after Stars Wars opened the MIS/MID to their
own Punch Bowl which has been topped off every year since.
On the Public side of the proletariat... us plebes... we have gotten the velvet
glove for 4 decades, the Iron Fist is subtle, yet effective. It prefers the shadows.
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Stimmy for Jimmies/Timmies/Ollies/Gollies - The New, New Deal
CARES ACT
$367 billion loan and grant program for small businesses
Expansion of unemployment benefits to include benefits increased by $600 per week for a period of four months
Direct payments to families of $1,200 per adult and $500 per child for households making up to $75,000
Over $130 billion in grants to hospitals, health care systems, and providers
$500 billion fund for loans to corporate America
Cash grants of $25 billion for airlines (in addition to loans), $4 billion for air cargo carriers, $3 billion for airline contractors to support payroll
A ban on stock buybacks for large companies receiving government loans during the term of their assistance plus one year
$150 billion in loans to state and local governments.
HEROES ACT
$1.13 trillion of emergency supplemental appropriations to federal agencies,
assistance to governments at the state, local, tribal, and territories
$485 billion in safety net spending, expansion of unemployment benefits,
increased Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits,
increased funding utilities payments and job training for low-income individuals
and a 25% increase in aid to disabled veterans
$435 billion for additional rebates, which would include an additional
$1200 stimulus check per individual.
$382 billion for health care
$290 billion to support small businesses and employee retention,
modifications to the Paycheck Protection Program.
$290 billion to reduce income taxes
$191 billion for student loan relief
$202 billion for housing-related costs and expenses
$190 billion for hazard pay for essential workers
$32 billion for communication systems
$48 billion for pensions and retirement relief
$31 billion for agricultural spending,
$254 billion for a limited business loss deductions
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Conclusions - to be continued
Federal Surplus or Deficit's Monthly ChartNext explosion in deficit (in progress) will set the stage for an INSANE run in precious metals, specially silver!
Federal Surplus or Deficit 1900's-1980'sSilver tends to detect incoming deficits...
How does it do that?
DATA VIEW: US BUDGET BALANCE UPDATEUS Budget Balance has restored to its normal levels, last seen back in 2004 and right before the financial crisis fallout - in 2008.
...
The balance suffered a significant blow during the fallout of 2008/9 us mortgage crisis. Government stimulus measures needed at the time to stop the downward spiral in US markets created a huge budged deficit. In addition, government tax revenues fell sharply (as most corporations failed to show profit, thus to pay corporate taxes).
Since 2011, however, situation in the budget balance started to improve. Urgent government aid was no longer required and tax revenues started to restore...
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US BUDGET BALANCE IMPROVING US budget balance suffered a significant blow during the fallout of 2008/9 us mortgage crisis. Government stimulus measures needed at the time to stop the downward spiral in US markets created a huge budged deficit. In addition, government tax revenues fell sharply (as most corporations failed to show profit, thus to pay corporate taxes).
Since 2011, however, situation in the budget balance started to improve. Urgent government aid was no longer required and tax revenues started to restore.
The chart above is updated once a year, however in order to see that the positive trend is still intact, one can calculate current year-to-year budget deficit by visiting the US Treasury website: www.fiscal.treasury.gov
