GFDEBTN trade ideas
The myth of hyperinflation series- #3. Fed's effectivenessHow effective are Fed's monetary policies and tools?
Fed has three simple goals- Grow GDP, keep inflation rate steady and keep the unemployment rate low.
Some argue that Fed's perceived power over the market was exposed during several occasions-
#1. During the 2008 in the midst of sub-prime mortgage crisis, the market continued to plunge despite the Fed's efforts to bail out Fannie & Freddie and other financial institutions, implement the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and issue $800b stimulus package. The market finally stopped the bleeding in early March 2009.
#2. When Fed ended the QE3 in 2014 by announcing its attention to raise the interest rate and slash the Fed balance sheet, many people believed market would crash. Instead, market shot up to ATH in 2015.
#3. This year during the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, Fed started out by cutting the rate by half percentage to no avail. Afterwards, Fed intensified its intervention effort by reducing Fed fund rate to zero. Nonetheless, the market tanked another 15% before it hit the bottom.
One can point to the Fed-induced booming housing market in early 2000 as the major factor for the fast economic recovery after the Dot.com bubble and uses it as the counter example.
Market is driven by crowd sentiment, but crowd sentiment, which in turns, is partially driven by Fed's decision. It is a chicken and egg conundrum. They both influence each other, but the degree to which each influences one another is impossible to discern.
The safe conclusion to draw is that it would be overly optimistic to rely on Fed to get us out of the next financial crisis unscathed as it will take more and more stimulus package to get the job done. The best it can do is to mitigate the severity of damage.
Next, let's examine some of the conditions and criteria that are related to inflation.
End Game: Linear charts of USD currency, Fed BS, US DebtThese (linear) charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money.
Look at the exponential growth of the USD currency supply shown on the left, the fed balance sheet in the center, and the US public debt on the right. There is an asymptotical rise limit on a linear chart by end of 2023. Thus I suspect something will have to give, which if I had to speculate will be the next evolution I the typical 30-40 year cycle of reserve currency change.
End game: USD currency fiat supply, Fed BS, US Public Debt RED DASHED PARABOLA IS ON LINEAR CHART. I will publish Log charts next.
These charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money.
Very very bullish.Hello, spirit of Robert Mugabe here.
I have to congratulate Mister Donald Trump.
He has managed to hurt the american citizen without them noticing that he did, because they do not learn economy & finance at school and do not care.
What an amazing sneaky politician! As the american people get more angry, and since they are financially illetarate and do not understand how the scam works, they will vote for him, hey he is giving free stuff and convinced people he fixed the economy before the "crisis that is 100% caused by the virus".
I know Mister Donald took example on me, everytime anything was bad I blamed it on the west, what he does is he blames every thing on the political west meaning the left. Haha good one, yes people fall for this!
Let's look at germany & century ago. The debt to gdp started at 20% in 1914 then went up and by 1923 it had ballooned to 180% thanks to the amazing Baron Rothschild which was running the private central bank, supported by german politicians. The debt stayed up there until 1933 when Adolf Hitler got elected, he arrested the Baron, and the debt declined from the year he took office. This allowed Adolf to gain alot of power and he was able to satisfy his lust for torturing & killing millions of poles homesexual jews jehova witnesses etc, as well as start a war with literally all of europe.
The left is even starting to like Trump as he is doing very bad decisions that they really love. He actually might able to start a bipartisan alliance, the nationalists and the socialists! I do not think I have to explain what this means.
A relief package is not bad, it is one of the tools to fight a crisis.
To many, Trump was supposed to be the hero, and after flattening the debt, it was supposed to revert, like during the clinton era.
But now, if the banking cartel - having dozens of exchanges with the governemnent on a daily - is to be believed, they are going to print endlessly!
The USA are ranked 4 as the worse Gini coefficient in the world, after taxes and everything, with Mexico Chile and Turkey above them (only looking at the 34 world roughly developped nations). The Netherlands & France are doing pretty well in this list at rank 21 & 22.
This is the bottom of the list:
25 Hungary
26 Austria
27 Belgium
28 Finland
29 Sweden
30 Slovak Republic
31 Czech Republic
32 Norway
33 Denmark
34 Slovenia
So if you are wealthy and would like to not get your head cut off when the people revolt, I would strongly recommend moving to one of those in the future, France and the Netherlands are also ok in my opinion, France had their yellow vest episodes, workers tore an airline boss clothes, but this is actually safety i believe.
First the yellow vests revolted against an unfair tax based on the climate hoax which no one with common sense can believe in (there is 12 years left for the past 30).
And the fact that the french revolts against greedy corporate people means it is unlikely the situation can worsen to a point where people want blood! The banking cartel will not have the opportunity to do what they do best.
Now if NA decides to nuke europe we are done but where can we be sure to be safe?
So about the list (Mugabe here), of course we african dictators do not reveal our numbers post taxes, but pre taxes & benefits the CIA & other organisations have managed to get hold of them.
The World Bank & CIA do not have the exact same numbers but basically it is the same, the ranking is dominated by neighbourg collegues of mine in South Africa & Lesotho.
The USA are only ranked 27 out of 178 countries, behind all the "fair socialist nations" of Africa & South America ;)
Haha the electorate is either too lazy or too stupid to notice that all the "fair socialist nations" are the ones the most unfair ;)
As Ford said "It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."
Now let's look at a very interesting list. THE WEALTH GINI! (2018) (lower is better)
At the same time, european & asian (you know which ones obviously) countries & the USA are on top of the HDI.
Here is the 2018 inequality-adjusted HDI (higher is better):
Americans don't have it that bad, but I don't think they want to be behind Poland, and fairness is a big factor, people can deal with poverty if that's the way things are, they don't want to be asked to tighten their belts, stay locked in small appartment during confinment, while underserving idiots that got rich by some miracle are relaxing on their huge yacht or giant mansion telling them to suffer in silence.
Japan has the highest debt to gdp in the world, the gov debt to gdp is at over 200% I don't even know exactly, BUT they have the biggest cash reverse in the world (I think), they have deflation and huge savings, they caused the AUDJPY huge rally, they caused (I speculate) the Bitcoin mega rally of 2017.
They can afford to print print print take huge debt and force inflation aggressively if this is how things are.
The majority of americans live paycheck to paycheck can barely afford rent, and their standard of living has crumbled tremendously.
The USA has been able to print money without total collapse because they have a the world reserve currency which is in high demand, but they push it!
If you want to research this "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons"
Income inequality:
And the standard of living chart is simple:
The USA are going for the good old days of the 30s I see :)
I hope the US cartel is bluffing. I have no confidence in them and sure won't invest.
I don't even think I want to short.
I don't really trade indices anyway, they are central to everything so I end up spending more time on this than FX & Commodities (I am very active with the USD thought and all of this obviously impacts it very directly).
Climate alarmists have a point: humans are very good at reacting in hindsight & very good at postponing issues "we'll deal with it later" let it grow let it grow like a cancer.
Maybe the dismantelement of europe is very soon and this will cause investors to flock to the USD, allowing them to print print print and dump on foreigners?
But just watching the FED chairmans talk they sound like complete madmen, honestly even Mugabe wasn't like this. If they are not bluffing and go full insane... yikes...
I already said much for a single idea (and just scratched the surface). History keeps repeating itself, so I suggest learning more about Zimbabwe there are alot of different fundamentals, but the root, the heart of the matter is the same (IF the USA keeps going the same way & there isn't a huge demand for USD for some reason - if they can print 500 trillion USD without devaluing the currency a ton and use this imaginary money to buy real goods & services from other countries well then gg for them they scammed the world).
Only efficient way I know to survive is watch the world evolve like a hawk (and in my case go as far as to do active trading)! People "just want to mind their own business".
Well this is planet earth, this is life, you don't get to just mind your own business and relax.
If you were in the jungle, infested of tigers and crocodiles would you just mind your own business?
Would you go for a swim in hippo territory? I think not. Those that "mind their own business" get scammed and end up the biggest losers.
The Rothschilds watched very carefully the rise of national socialism in germany and they got away early!
The herd of jews got their weapons consficated by Hitler, and started trying to all migrate out of the country but it was not possible!
And they were not enough to fight back. Entire boats got rejected at US ports.
Not saying things will be that bad (not impossible thought), but I'd rather be careful and alive than not have a worry in the world and die.
Being aware of this and "worrying" actually allows me to not be too worried (also huge ego & feelings of invicibility helps).
BTCbugs which so didn't read this, would enjoy knowing that Zimbabweans got so desperate they bought Bitcoins aggressively.
The Global Debt Crisis - the End of the Bubble is NearGFDEBTN Monthly
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT: TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT
8:00PM EST
At current rate of acceleration, total Federal Government Public Debt will double by April 2023 (4.5 years from today) and then double again by October 2026, just 3.5 years later. By January 2028, total federal government debt will have doubled again in an even shorter time where it will hit a red line - having gone gone fully vertical - doubling every month, week, then day.
Obviously this is impossible, and likely there will be major economic consequence before this date.
The data does not lie. The world is in serious trouble with the most massive debt bubble to have ever existed. The consequence of this debt bubble is yet to be seen, however, terms such as, “The Great Reset,” amongst others come to mind.
It is difficult to fathom the consequence of this bubble, however, we would like to believe that there is a recovery strategy on the horizon. One thing is certain, the path is on track to a 2028 or sooner GLOBAL DEBT MELTDOWN and perhaps the end of modern day finance as we know it.
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USA National debt potential default in 2025-2026This parabola show exponential increasing US national debt, they cannot stop it.
The Race to the Top or Bottom?US Public Debt woes continue to have little effect on the global equity markets. Will this change? Is the Nasdaq overbought and are we in a bubble scenario? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk #Nasdaq #S&P500 #FTSE100 #DAX
